TYRANNY OF THE MAJORITY: RACIAL AND ETHNIC MINORITIES IN DIRECT DEMOCRACY by Hajnal, Gerber, and Louch Are ballot initiatives/referendum the most democratic means of enacting legislation or is direct democracy being used by white groups to dominate nonwhite minorities?

There is a lot of literature in political science that is very critical of direct democracy and suggest that such practices hurt minority groups. The referendum has been a most effective facilitator of voter racial bias, fear and prejudice and has marred American democracy form its earliest days (Bell 1978).

Research question: are minorities more likely to be on the losing side (as a voter) on propositions? Data: CA LA Times exit polls from 1978 to Method: Logistic Regression/Logit

Findings for all proposition during that time: blacks, Latinos and Asians are less likely to vote on the winning side of a ballot initiative. Authors' note: although statistically significant, they are substantively weak. Less than 3 percent difference in probability. Minorities still more often than not vote for the winning side.

Findings for propositions that are important or draw cohesive voting blocks: Latinos are less likely to vote for the winning side, but still have over a 50% chance of voting for the winning side (except for minority targeted propositions %)

LATINO VOTING BEHAVIOR IN AN ANTI- LATINO POLITICAL CONTEXT by Matt Barreto and Nathan Woods. Even though the Latino community has been growing fast during the twentieth century it has been difficult for Latinos to win state wide office.

This seems to be changing: Cruz Bustamante, speaker of the assembly, lieutenant governor; 27 of the 80 assembly seats are filled by Latinos. In fact, “with regard to politics, the term Latino and California will soon become redundant.” This is especially the case for Los Angeles County.

Research Question: Has Latino registration and voting increased in response to the negative, minority targeted propositions? awaking the "sleeping giant“ Data: Records of registration from obtained from the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters. Sorted using Census Bureau Spanish surname database.

Method: Create detachment measures Example in % of Latino voters were GOP and between 92 and % of new registered voters were GOP so: ( ) / 20.4 = or -49.5% Findings: Latinos are not turning Republican, but Democrats are also losing Latino voters, but at a much smaller rate.

TURNOUT Prior literature found that Latinos turnout to vote at lower rates than non-Latinos. This is not true in the case of Los Angeles County, Latino Democrats very likely to turnout, and the authors suggest that it is because of certain controversial ballot initiatives: Prop 187, 209, 227.

EXPLORING MINORITY POLITICAL EFFICACY: CONSIDERING THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT. By Rodney Hero and Caroline Tolbert Do minority targeted initiatives stigmatize minority groups, alienate them and shut them out of the political process by decreasing the trust and political efficacy?

“The referendum has been a most effective facilitator of voter racial bias, fear and prejudice and has marred American democracy from its earliest days.” As mentioned earlier, there has been much political science literature supporting the negative effects of ballot initiatives.

Research questions: do frequent use of the ballot initiative increase or decrease political efficacy? Data: NES 1988 to 1998 (8783 voters; 12.4% black; 3.8% Latinos; 1.3% Asian) Dependent Variable: two survey questions added together – “if people like [them] have any say in what government does; and if they “think that government officials care about what people like [them] think.” Method: Ordered Logistic Regression

FINDINGS? Authors find strong evidence that citizens living in states with frequent exposure to direct democracy are more likely to claim that government is responsive to their needs. At the same time, regardless of state institutional context, African Americans have lower political efficacy than whites. Unanswered question: Do blacks in states with direct democracy have more efficacy?