Presented to:Aviation and the Environment: Issues & Methods Workshop By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice, Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor for Environment FAA Office of Environment & Energy Date:September 27-28, 2007 Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives

2 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Outline The Challenges Ahead Goals & Metrics NextGen Solutions Concluding Observations

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 3 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Community Noise Impacts Global climate Air Quality Aviation Environmental IssuesAviation Environmental Issues

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 4 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Community Noise Impacts Global climate Air Quality Aviation Environmental Issues Water Quality Aviation Environmental Issues

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 5 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Energy: Evolving Strategic Concerns Transportation continues to have the largest reliance on oil… …while some are predicting that we are nearing the peak of oil supply.

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 6 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Energy: Shift in Airline Cost Equation Source: Air Transport Association

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 7 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992 –General commitment to reduce certain greenhouse gas emissions Kyoto Protocol 1997 (2005) –Specific targets for reductions –Developing countries exempt (for now) –Coverage of domestic aviation up to each country –International aviation subject to ICAO plan (per Article 2.2) ICAO Decision in 2004 –Limit or reduce the impact from aviation greenhouse gas emissions on climate change Climate: Evolving Concerns

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 8 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 –“Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won't stop doing it until the Government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways.” London Guardian, February 28, 2006 –“Of all the things which an ordinary person does which damage the planet, flying is far the worst.” Fly Now, Grieve Later, Tyndall Climate Center –“Aviation could be the next tobacco industry.” CANSO Official, ATAG Conference, 2006 –“…we should tax aviation so heavily…that in within 10 years there should be virtually no domestic flights.” Conservative MP Tim Yeo, January 2007 –every time someone dies as a result of floods in Bangladesh, an airline executive should be dragged out of his office and drowned. George Monibot, Guardian Newspaper, December 2006 Climate: A Growing Storm

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 9 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 GHG Emissions vs. Other Environmental Issues Defining a Way Forward (Technology vs. Market-Based Measures) Shift in Aviation Center of Gravity Climate: ICAO Assembly Debate

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 10 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Community Noise Impacts Global Climate Air Quality Aviation Environmental Issues - Today Water Quality Energy

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 11 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 NextGen Vision Provide environmental protection that allows sustained aviation growth Factors: 2X increase in system by 2025 Fundamental system changes Increased importance of environment Vision to grow aviation while reducing significant environmental impacts The Way Forward for the US

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 12 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Source: NextGen Integrated Plan, 2004 Demand Year Shift to more passengers / flight 3X 1X 2X Shift to smaller aircraft, more airports 2% Shift to Micro Jets Increase 10+ pax/flight Flights 1.4-3X Passengers X … and this is coupled with environmental capacity constraints. Demand for aviation is growing … HC CO NOx SOx + 75% + 70% + 90% + 85% Preliminary Emissions for NextGen 2X Growth Scenario … as is the environmental footprint… Airports with Restrictions Compiled by Tam et al., 2007 from Boeing data 9/13/05 % of airports Environmental Issues Translate to Capacity Constraints

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 13 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 By 2025, significant environmental impacts of noise and local air quality will be reduced in absolute terms, even with the anticipated growth in aviation. Uncertainties about aviation emissions are reduced to enable appropriate actions to address these effects. Communities will value airports as gateways to the national and international transportation network. U.S. aerospace will provide leadership in researching, developing, and implementing technological, operational and policy initiatives that address mobility and environmental needs. Our Vision Environmental Protection that Allows Sustained Aviation Growth

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 14 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Outline The Challenges Ahead Goals & Metrics NextGen Solutions Concluding Observations

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 15 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Noise NextGen analyses done against goal to reduce noise exposure (65, 55 DNL) 1%/year measured from base of average (FAA goal) FAA goal is now 4%/year (65 DNL) through Flight Plan ( ) Local Air quality NextGen analyses compute lbs emissions Engine emissions standards limit lbs emissions; ≠ significance National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establish significance for all sources combined Establishing aircraft contribution challenging Climate NextGen analyses done against goal to improve aviation fuel efficiency per revenue plane-mile by 1%/year measured from base of average (FAA goal) Historical average ~2.2%; goal may become more stringent Fuel burn can be translated to lbs pollutants; ≠ significance Establishing metrics/aviation contribution challenging Quantifying Goals

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 16 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Noise “Significance” established as exposure to 65 DNL per Federal Policy; significant legal precedent Other views but no consensus exist Local Air quality Lbs emissions (not appropriate for impacts) Need to quantify impacts (e.g., health impacts) – to do so requires putting aviation contribution in context of other sources Fuel Burn (Surrogate for Climate) Using fuel burn per revenue passenger mile Other metrics capture other types of performance (e.g., fuel burn per payload) Working to establish metric; composite metric probably best – but difficult from a policy perspective Metrics Gaps

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 17 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 APMT PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BLOCK NOISE IMPACTS LOCAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS CLIMATE IMPACTS APMT COSTS & BENEFITS New Aircraft Emissions Noise APMT BENEFITS VALUATION BLOCK Monetized Benefits Collected Costs Emissions & Noise Policy and Scenarios AEDT Fares DEMAND (Consumers) SUPPLY (Carriers) Operations Schedule & Fleet EDS What are the noise and emission characteristics? What are the environmental implications & costs associated with a vehicle design? A New Way of Modeling Impacts

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 18 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, ClimateLocal Air QualityNoise US$B2005 3% discount rate Preliminary Results Only--Do not cite US emissions Yearly cost $16B/yr US emissions Yearly cost $2.8B/yr 89 US airports $0.5B/yr (when annualized on a 30 year basis= $10B “one-time”cost) Example: Interdependencies - (for one particular set of scenarios and assumptions)

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 19 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Outline The Challenges Ahead Goals & Metrics NextGen Solutions Concluding Observations

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 20 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 The Best Ultimate Solution: New Aircraft Technologies Opportunities Historically new technologies account for 90% of environmental footprint reduction New concepts offer promise for improvement Collaborative demonstrations with industry can stimulate technology transition

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 21 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 CAAFI - Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative Opportunities Alternative Fuels may be Environmentally Friendly Helps Manage Interdependencies Enhances Energy Security/Diversity Aviation’s Potential as First Adapter Sustained High Costs Keep Alternatives Viable

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 22 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Near Term Solutions: Flight operations Opportunities New technologies to improve air traffic management will help reduce emissions. An example is RVSM – Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums. Full worldwide implementation of RVSM may reduce fuel use by ~500 million gallons each year. Other operational approaches, such as continuous descent arrivals, can reduce fuel burn as well as noise Reducing congestion, and optimizing airport ground and terminal air space operations offer great promise for future reductions of noise and emissions

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 23 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Demonstrate and enable new aviation fuels derived from domestic resources to ensure a secure stable fuel supply Demonstrate technologies and operations to enable significant increases in the fuel efficiency of the aviation system Demonstrate technologies and operations to decrease the environmental impact of the aviation system Advance scientific knowledge/reduce uncertainties NextGen R&D

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 24 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Research Consortium for Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise Technology Partnership “CLEEN” Airport Cooperative Research Program Environmental Mitigation Demonstration Pilot Program Grant Eligibility for Assessment of Flight Procedures (Sec. 605) Airport Funding of Special Studies or Reviews Reauthorization Provisions focused on NextGen

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 25 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Outline The Challenges Ahead Goals & Metrics NextGen Solutions Concluding Observations

Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives 26 Federal Aviation Administration September 27-28, 2007 Environmental constraints to aviation growth real and looming We do not know quantitatively what our goals are – but likely to be more stringent We need metrics to quantify impacts We need to inform policy makers to enable defining significant We need robust cost-benefit analyses to inform defining appropriate NextGen Reform Act of 2007 offers historic environmental provisions to deal with these challenges Summary