Outlook for U.S. Commodities by Jim Hilker, Ph. D. and John Ferris, Ph. D. MSU Department of Agricultural Economics.

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for U.S. Commodities by Jim Hilker, Ph. D. and John Ferris, Ph. D. MSU Department of Agricultural Economics

Est. Proj. Hilker Acre Planted (Mil) Acre Harv. (Mil) Bu/Harvested Ac Production (Mil Bu) 9,759 9,437 9,443 CORN BALANCE SHEET

Est. Proj. Hilker Beg. Stocks 1,308 1,787 1,714 Production 9,759 9,437 9,443 Imports Total Supply 11,086 11,23911,170 CORN BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Uses: Feed and Residual 5,496 5,650 5,625 Food, Seed and Ind. Uses 1,822 1,900 1,960 Total Domestic 7,318 7,550 7,585 Exports 1,981 1,975 2,025 Total Use 9,299 9,525 9,610 CORN BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Total Supply 11,086 11,239 11,170 Total Use 9,299 9,525 9,610 End. Stocks 1,787 1,714 1,560 End.Stocks, % of Use Reg. Loan Rate $1.89 $1.89 $1.89 U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu. $1.94 $1.90 $2.10 CORN BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Acre Planted (Mil) Acre Harv. (Mil) Bu/Harvested Ac Production (Mil Bu) 2,548 2,302 2,205 WHEAT BALANCE SHEET

Est. Proj. Hilker Beg. Stocks Production 2,548 2,302 2,205 Imports Total Supply 3,373 3,348 3,280 WHEAT BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Uses: Food Seed Feed Total Domestic 1,385 1,301 1,305 Exports 1,042 1,075 1,125 Total Use 2,427 2,375 2,430 WHEAT BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Total Supply 3,373 3,348 3,280 Total Use 2,427 2,376 2,430 End. Stocks End.Stocks, % of Use Reg. Loan Rate $2.58 $2.58 $2.58 U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.65 $2.50 $2.80 WHEAT BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Acre Planted (Mil) Acre Harv. (Mil) Bu/Harvested Ac Production (Mil Bu) 2,741 2,994 3,210 SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET

Est. Proj. Hilker Beg. Stocks Production 2,741 2,643 2,842 Imports Total Supply 2,944 2,994 3,210 SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Uses: Crushings 1,590 1,605 1,630 Exports Food, Seed and Residuals Total Use 2,596 2,629 2,710 SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker Total Supply 2,944 2,994 3,210 Total Use 2,596 2,629 2,710 End. Stocks End.Stocks, % of Use Reg. Loan Rate $5.26 $5.26 $5.26 U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu. $4.93 $4.75 $4.50 SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET (Million Bushels)

Low Grain and Soybean Prices Translates into Low Energy and Protein Costs for the Livestock Sector

Milk Price History and Projection

History & Projection