Most of the economic impacts in WA are caused by… 1.Changes in the water cycle. 2.Heat waves. 3.Carbon fertilization of the atmosphere. 4.Invasive species and other pests.

What was the “errata for the HB3103 Interim Report” about? 1.Feet versus cm. 2.Degrees C versus degrees F years versus 100 years. 4.Tons versus metric tons

Preliminary estimates of economic impacts of climate change in Washington State Produced by Climate Leadership Initiative for the WA Departments of Ecology and CTED, Dec. 2006

Washington State British Columbia

Seattle Yakima Walla Whatcom Washington State

Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet.

Forest resources Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet.

Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet. Electricity

Municipal water supply Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet.

Agriculture Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet. Flow of Yakima River Yakima Basin

Agriculture Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet. Dairy

Agriculture Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet. Dairy

Agriculture Climate drivers 1.Increased levels of CO 2. 2.Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s. 3.Earlier snowmelt. 4.No significant change in amount of precipitation. 5.Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet. Wine Source: Dr. Gregory V Jones, Southern Oregon Univ. Source: Greg Jones, Southern Oregon Univ.

Other potential impacts Flooding: higher risk in some areas, lower risk in others. Public health: West Nile Virus, asthma, heat-related deaths, etc. Snow sports: Shorter, rainier seasons. Salmon and fisheries: Warmer water threatens salmon; other effects unknown. Shorelines: May need to redesign or rebuild levees, seawalls, etc. Cumulative impacts and linkages Risk of catastrophic climate change

Economic impacts this century will likely be visible but manageable Costs related to forest fires may double by 2040s ($10s to $100s of millions). Hydropower impacts probably < 5% of revenues (≈$150 million) unless precipitation changes. By mid-century, drought costs in Yakima up from $13 million to $79 million, milk production down 1-3% ($10s of millions out of ≈ $1 billion sector). Municipal water systems: Seattle may hit capacity constraint in 2050, not WA GDP > $250 billion; state budget ≈ $20 b.

Economic impacts this century will likely be visible but manageable Key words: this century. Economic impacts will almost certainly increase in future centuries with more warming. Key word: Likely. In other words, based on what scientists and economists know for sure (or are very confident in), impacts this century will be visible but manageable. But there are uncertainties (e.g., nonlinear changes) that could make economic impacts this century much, much worse.

Ecosystem thresholds: the case of the Mountain Pine Beetle a massive outbreak of the mountain pine beetle in BC has killed 100 billion board feet (approx. 9 years of harvest) low temperatures (< -10°F) limit beetle activity –a recent lack of extreme cold, killing temperatures has allowed the beetle to thrive in epidemic numbers beetle killed pines in BC Photos from

Sea level rise by 2100 of ≈3 inches to 3+ feet Issue #1: Thermal expansion Issue #2: Glacial melt Issue #3: Tectonic forces WA. Dept of Ecology Tacoma sinking by ≈1 ft/century Neah Bay rising by ≈1 ft/century WA. Dept of Ecology

Sea level rise (IPCC 2007), “excluding rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.” 1 ft ≈ 300 mm

IPCC 2007: “Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.” Hansen 2007 (not IPCC!): “As a physicist, I find it almost inconceivable that [business as usual] climate change would not yield a sea level change of the order of meters on the century timescale.” Sea level rise (IPCC 2007), “excluding rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.”

Blue: 2 ft (≈0.6m) Purple: 20 ft (≈6m) Red: 40 ft (≈12m)

Sea level rise (IPCC 2007), “excluding rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.” 1 ft ≈ 300 mm

WA. Dept of Ecology Updated “best guess” from Mote et al (“Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State”) Global Puget Sound Olympic peninsula Very low 18cm 16cm -24cm Medium 34cm 4cm Very high 93cm 128cm 88cm Sea level rise by 2100 (global plus local ocean dynamics and local tectonic forces)

World CO 2 : from 21,000 MMT in 1990 to 44,000 MMT in 2030 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Washington CO 2 (+ other GHG): from 78 MMT in 1990 to ??? Source: Based on Dept. of Community, Trade and Economic Development

Washington CO 2 (+ other GHG): ≈88 MMT in 2004

What was the #1 recommendation from the Climate Action Team? 1.Fuel economy standards. 2.Ban coal. 3.Market-based instruments. 4.Home energy efficiency.

Net benefits of replacing $100 in sales tax with… income tax Income quintile

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Net benefits of replacing $100 in sales tax with… tax on jet fuel Income quintile

Net benefits of replacing $100 in sales tax with… income tax Income quintile