MDM4U Culminating Project Unemployment and Divorce in Ontario By: Rachel Wang Glebe Collegiate Institute For Mr. Garvin Boyle

Contents Introduction Thesis Question and Hypothesis Data Preparation Analysis of Graphs –Observations –Interpretations Conclusions and Considerations for the next project Summary

Introduction This is the second portion of the culminating project for the MDM4U Data Management course. The purpose of this project was to retrieve and investigate possible relationships between variables. Five variables were retrieved from the Statistics Canada database: –Rate of induced abortions per 1,000 females in between the ages of 25 and 29. –Unemployment rate of population in between the ages of 25 and 44. –Total number of divorces. –Rate of crimes of violence per 100,000 individuals. –Net financial debt, in millions of dollars, of the Ontario provincial government

Thesis and Hypothesis Thesis –Are there any correlations between the conditions of economy and the stability of families in Ontario? Hypothesis –It was hypothesized that a strong positive correlation exists between the unemployment rate and the rate of divorce. When people become unemployed, the standard of living decreases dramatically, and this may cause psychological issues such as anger and depression. This may result in disagreement and arguments between a couple, and may eventually lead to divorce

Data Preparation Of the five variables that were collected, three variables were measured in rates, which meant that they were unaffected by population and inflation However, the total number of divorces contained population-driven data, while the net financial debt contained inflation-driven data. To remove the effect of population, the total number of divorces had to be divided by the total population of Ontario, so that the divorce per capita was found. To remove the effect of inflation, current year dollars must be converted into constant dollars by dividing a value by its corresponding Consumer Price Index, which measures the changes in consumer prices, and multiplying by 100. In this case, the base year was 2002, which meant that the financial debt in 2002 will stay the same.

YearRate of Induced Abortions Unemployment Rate Number of Divorces per capita Rate of Crimes of Violence Net Financial Debt in millions of constant dollars

One-Variable Analysis The twenty data points of unemployment rates were plotted into five intervals. The graph appeared to be slightly right skewed, with the bin of the lowest interval having the highest frequencies, but generally uniform distribution. This suggests that the Ontario economy is in a stable condition, and the trend is that during majority of the twenty years, the unemployment rates were fairly low.

The data collected during the twenty years form 1984 to 2003 were put into five bins of equal intervals. The graph appeared to be right skewed, in which most number of data points were located in the bin with the lowest values, and least number of data points were located in the bin with the highest values. This suggests that most married couples in Ontario were content with their marriages, and that they were in good relationship with their spouses.

Two-Variable Analysis The unemployment rate of population between the ages of 25 and 44 in Ontario from 1984 to 2003 was placed on the x-axis, while the number of divorces per capita in Ontario over the same time interval was placed on the y-axis. A regression line was plotted to show the relationship.

Observations There appeared to be a very weak negative relationship between the two variables, with a coefficient of determination of –The closer the value is to 1, the stronger the correlation. Interpretations This weak relationship indicates that the financial stability of a family has little effect on the decision of a couple to get divorced, and occasionally, when the unemployment rate increases, the divorce rate actually decreases. It may be possible that during financially difficult times is when couples support each other and stay together. When the standard of living is stable and high, people become unsatisfied, and problems arise which may result in divorce.

Of the other five variables that were collected, other than the two variables that were the interests of the study, correlation graphs of other variables can also be created. The net financial debt of the Ontario provincial government and the rate of induced abortions were graphed using a scatter plot.

Observations The coefficient of determination, which indicates the strength of the relationship, was above 0.5, which indicates a moderately strong positive relationship between the two variables. Interpretations When the government is in debt, it indicates a weak economy. When the economy is not strong, it may be reflected in elements such as decrease in employment rate and inflation resulting in increase in prices of products, which will decrease the standard of living of individuals. When a person is in financial difficulty, he/she may become unable to support a newborn child, so those who find themselves being pregnant may seek induced abortions as a solution.

Conclusions and consideration for a next project The hypothesis was that a strong correlation existed between the unemployment rate and number of divorce per capita. The observation was that there was no correlation between the two variables. The hypothesis was incorrect. In the next project, some other aspects of society can be considered, and find factors that have an effect on the rate of divorce.

Summary The primary interest of this project was to find possible causes for divorce in Ontario. Five variables were retrieved and modified, all of which contained data collected within Ontario: –Rate of Induced Abortions –Unemployment rate –Number of divorce per capita –Rate of crimes of violence –Net financial debt of Ontario provincial government The hypothesis was that an increased unemployment rate would cause an increase in the number of divorce per capita. Through analysis of graphs, it was observed that there was no correlation between the two variables, so the hypothesis was proven to be false. A strong positive correlation was found to exist between the rate of induced abortions and the net financial debt of the provincial government.