Course wrap-up A few last words about some of the things we hope you take away from this quarter … – Continuum of climate information – Characteristics of planning/management situations that favor the use of climate information – The multidimensional nature of resource issues – Causes of vulnerability in resource systems

Climate Information The past: paleoclimate and historical data ENSO: predictions begin in June for events occurring over the following 12 months PDO: potential for multiyear predictions Global warming: scenarios for future decades and centuries

Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information Understanding of system What you care about is predictable Good understanding of causal linkages between climate and resource response Good match between timescale of climate variation and resource management decisions Well-understood systems: if action is taken on a climate forecast, right or wrong you know the consequences (a good insurance policy) Predictions give more benefit than alternative actions (ex: hurricane response) Predictions are trusted

Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information, Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information, continued… Sensitivity Vulnerability is seen to be a problem by decision-makers and stakeholders (earthquakes vs. global warming!) Decisions are already being based on resource forecasts (salmon harvest allocations, river runoff, reservoir inflows) High sensitivity to infrequent extreme events (floods, hurricanes, blizzards)

Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information Characteristics of systems that favor the use of climate information, continued… Institutional characteristics System has room & flexibility for adaptation (action is possible) Agencies have resources to support staff and/or projects to develop climate related decision support tools (BPA, ACOE, SPU...) Availability of information and technical capacity is high There are rewards for good decisions, penalties for poor decisions (public versus private; jurisdiction) Requirements for justifying decisions Risk/reward ratio for taking action is small and understood (hedging reservoir operations in an El Niño year)

What have we missed? Institutional barriers? Economic barriers? Psychology of resource management?

Characteristics of Vulnerable systems Vulnerability: related to the difference between sensitivity - adaptability Imposed rigidity and/or fully (to over-) allocated resources – Expectations/allocations not matched by long- term reality in terms of resource availability … like the Colorado River Compact, the Klamath Basin – The ratchet effect: Yakima Basin junior rights holders versus senior rights holders – Lack of diversification

Vulnerable resource systems Time Resource supply Resource demand

Vulnerable resource systems Time Resource supply Resource demand $ $ $

Vulnerable resource systems Time Resource supply Resource demand $ $$?$

Expectations matter Sensitivity Sensitivityclose to fully allocated resource Adaptability Adaptability rigidity, fixed expectations, the resource ratchet

Building Capacity and Delivering Action Building Adaptive Capacity Addressing institutional, legal, cultural, technical, fiscal and other barriers Activities can be taken independent of specific climate projections Delivering Adaptive Actions Implementing actions to address specific climate vulnerabilities Choice and timing of some actions may depend on specifics of the climate projections Two-Pronged Approach:

Characteristics of Adaptation ongoing process (embedded examples of existing adaptations to climate) adaptation = both a policy response and a spontaneous adjustment occurs not in isolation but within complex milieu of ecological, economic, social & institutional circumstances not always successful – maladaptation occurs because of other social goals, often short-term

Interconnections between PNW resource systems climate hydrology forests fish coasts X XXX X X XX X X X XXX X E - L - N

Seattle’s Water Supply With investments in conservation and fixing leaky pipes, SPU has dramatically reduced water use while increasing the number of customers

SPU’s current Water supply situation

current water stress is greatest in S. Arizona, New Mexico, and eastern Colorado

La Niña? Still hanging around!

ENSO Indicators Ocean surface temperatures remain cold … But that will likely change very soon - the subsurface ocean temperatures along the equator have been warming up (top right figure) Surface temperature index

ENSO forecasts for the next year Most ENSO forecast models showing an end to La Niña by summer, then a wide range of possibilities by next fall/winter

CPC Summer Forecast With lingering La Niña, forecasts show increased odds for a cool/wet spring (good for skiing, summer water, salmon … maybe not so good for sun tanning or gardening)