Land Use and Transportation Models G111/211a Draft Notes

New era Policies aim at more complex processes Sustainability is becoming increasingly more popular – possibly accepted practice(?!) Cause and effects between transportation and land use are not one-way linear sequences Short, medium, and long term relationships can now be modeled using somewhat sophisticated tools and fast computers

CAAA – ISTEA - TEA-21 LAND USE AIR QUALITYTRANSPORTATION INTEGRATED MODELS = AN ACCOUNT FOR TWO WAY RELATIONSHIPS

It is a different and changing policy world – European Union, Japan, Canada, Australia, and USA Mobility vs Accessibility

Mobility vs accessibility policies (Kennedy et al, 2005)

-Policy Coordination with Packages of Policy Actions in the EU -Effective Governance = Integration of Policies = New Needs for Policy Action Assessments = More Informative Models

Transportation and Land Use Land Development --> Location Choices Location Choices --> Activities Location Choices -  Car Ownership Activities -> Travel Travel -> Flows Flows -> Activity Patterns Use Spatial Distribution AND MANY MORE See next

Example: Mobility as Transit Mobility Use land use to increase transit use (TCRP study)

Seven Groups of Factors (1&2/7) Increase Residential Density Activity locations closer to each other Transit service more economical Other factors need to be considered Neighborhood Design Mixed land use Transit friendly designs (think of turning radius) Mode separation Size!

Seven Groups of Factors (3&4/7) Transit Supply Situational barriers System & Service (availability, frequency, timing/flexibility) Knowledge/information Negative predisposition Cost/time/comfort Car Ownership Number of cars Types of cars Specialization = more use? Costs (perceived and real)

Seven Groups of Factors (5&6/7) Socioeconomics Age Gender Income Employment/Occupation Social Role Workplace/Employment Density Bring the CBD back! High density suburban centers Campus examples Parking?

The Seventh Factor Accessibility Connectivity Amount of activities Closeness

These factors are not acting alone – mediation!

Wegener’s simplified cycle

Wegener’s LU/T Feedback Cycle

Lagged Relationships

Theories Spatial Interaction (Distance decay functions) Urban Land Markets (Bid rent) Waves Theories – Urban Life Cycles (Rise and Fall) Social Ecology (Clusters and specialized centers) Action-space analyses -> optimal space and location for activities Time-budgets -> time geography -> activity-based approaches NEXT??????

The Von Thunen Model of Market, Production, and Distance R = Y(p-c) – Yfm R = Rent per unit of land. Y = Yield per unit of land. p = market price per unit of yield. c = Average production costs per unit of yield. m = Distance from market (in kilometers or miles). f = Freight rate per unit of yield and unit of distance. Assumptions: Isolation. There is one isolated market in an isolated state having no interactions (trade) with the outside. Ubiquitous land characteristics. The land surrounding the market in entirely flat and its fertility uniform. Transportation. It is assumed there are no transport infrastructures such as roads or rivers and that farmers are transporting their production to the market using horses and carts. Transportation costs are dependent of the type of commodity being transported to the market as well as the distance involved.

The Isolated State von Thünen, 1826 See also: ssics/content/9

Lessons Learned Land Rent: Distance Decay

Central Places Christaller, 1933 A Central Place is a settlement or a nodal point that serves the area around with goods and services (Mayhew, 1997). Christaller's model also was based on the premise that all goods and services were purchased by consumers from the nearest central place, that the demands placed on all central places in the plain were similar, and that none of the central places made any excessive profit. See ontent/67

Bid-Rent Theory Alonso, 1964

Example: Bid rent theories Diamond sales in the CBD and agriculture in the periphery – residences obey a somewhat different law/rule

Retail Location Huff, 1964 Huff Retail Location Model – competitive with explicit macro- rules: see also ncc.edu/mjkhouja/Locat e8.ppt#261,10,Single Facility Location Using Cross Median Approach

Household Location Park & Burgess, 1925 An evolutionary approach to urban ecology: /content/26

Burgess Model

Isard’s Hybrid Model Note the Corridors of development

Action Spaces Hägerstrand, 1970

The Brotchie Triangle

Interaction = travel time Dispersion = employment distance from City centre

Theoretical Expectations About Relationships

From Land Use to Transportation

Better Transportation -> Better Accessibility What happens to land use?

From Transportation to Land Use via Accessibility

From Transportation to Transportation

Ideal Designs Monocentric – Compact City Polycentric – Pockets of Paradise Dispersed Development – People Driven

Empirical (Data analysis) Studies General findings

From Land Use to Transport

Be Aware of Selectivity Issues People that select city centers different than people in suburbs People that select to live in large cities different than small town dwellers Large portions of decision making spheres largely neglected – school choice, effect of family and friends, family endowments, what else?

From Transportation to Land Use

From Transportation to Transportation

MODELS Many – different time and space resolutions and assumptions about behavior

What we need See Meyer and Miller chapter 6 And Miller in KG book

The Miller model – policies and models

Models in Practice

Three Main ways to Quantify Land Use Transport Interactions Hypothetically change land use and ask people what they will do differently Advantages and disadvantages Create experiments were we actually change land use and observe people behavior Advantages and disadvantages Build computer simulators with models that show these interactions and behavioral changes Advantages and disadvantages

The Models Developed

Waddell’s Taxonomy

Operational and Under Development Land Use Models

From TRB workshop by Miller – based on Knight and Trygg 1977

Dynamics/Lags

Integration for what? Meplan – source Hunt/Miller TRB workshop

Idealized Model System (TCRP H-12)

Design & Modeling

Beyond todays LU/Trans

Websites MEPLAN_and_Urban_Economics.PDF

What else can we change by design? Next Models in Practice & PROPOLIS Examples