WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Akm Saiful Islam Lecture-3: Module- 3 Climate Change Modeling ->GCM December, 2009 Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Module-3 Prediction of climate change  Global and regional climate change predictions  Dynamic and static downscaling for impact study.  Uncertainty of predictions

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Climate Change Modeling

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Climate Models Climate models are computer-based simulations that use mathematical formulas to re-create the chemical and physical processes that drive Earth’s climate. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points. Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam General Circulation Model (GCM) General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class of computer-driven models for weather forecasting, understanding climate and projecting climate change, where they are commonly called Global Climate Models. Three dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid motion and energy transfer and integrate these forward in time. They also contain parameterizations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climate) combine the two models.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

GCM typical horizontal resolution of between 250 and 600 km, 10 to 20 vertical layers in the atmosphere and sometimes as many as 30 layers in the oceans.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Heart of Climate Model Conservation of momentum Conservation of mass Conservation of energy

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Complexity of GCM

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Hardware Behind the Climate Model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was a report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, on future emission scenarios to be used for driving global circulation models to develop climate change scenarios. It was used to replace the IS92 scenarios used for the IPCC Second Assessment Report of The SRES Scenarios were also used for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam SERS Emission Scenarios A1 - a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Three sub groups: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). A2 - A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an emphasis on family values and local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development. B1 - a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline. B2 - a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam

A1 The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:  Rapid economic growth.  A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines.  The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.  A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis:  A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels.  A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources.  A1T - Emphasis on non-fossil energy sources.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:  A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations.  Continuously increasing population.  Regionally oriented economic development.  Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam B1 The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by:  Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy.  Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1.  Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.  An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam B2 The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by:  Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2.  Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.  Intermediate levels of economic development.  Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam SRES A1B Scenarios Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario assumes a balanced mix of technologies and supply sources, with technology improvements and resource assumptions such that no single source of energy is overly dominant. The implications of these alternative development paths for future GHG emissions are challenging: the emissions vary from the carbon-intensive to decarbonization paths by at least as much as the variation of all the other driving forces across the other SRES scenarios.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam GCM output described in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (SRES scenarios), multilayer mean ModelsScenariosVariables BCC:CM1 BCCR:BCM2 CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T47 CCCMA:CGCM3_1-T63 CNRM:CM3 CONS:ECHO-G CSIRO:MK3 GFDL:CM2 GFDL:CM2_1 INM:CM3 IPSL:CM4 LASG:FGOALS-G1_0 MPIM:ECHAM5 MRI:CGCM2_3_2 NASA:GISS-AOM NASA:GISS-EH NASA:GISS-ER NCAR:CCSM3 NCAR:PCM NIES:MIROC3_2-HI NIES:MIROC3_2-MED UKMO:HADCM3 UKMO:HADGEM1 1PTO2X 1PTO4X 20C3M COMMIT PICTL SRA1B SRA2 SRB1  specific humidity  precipitation flux  air pressure at sea level  net upward shortwave flux in air  air temperature  air temperature daily max  air temperature daily min  eastward wind  northward wind

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam List of GCM – Page 1 BCC-CM1  AgencyBeijing Climate Center, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No.46, S.Road, Zhongguancun Str., Beijing , China BCCR  Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Univ. of Bergen, Norway CGCM3  Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) CNRM-CM3  Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo France, France

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam List of GCM– Page 2 CONS-ECHO-G  Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany), Institute of KMA (Korea), and Model and Data Group. CSIRO, Australia INMCM3.0  Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Science, Russia. GFDL  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA NASA-GISS-AOM  NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam List of GCM – Page 3 MRI-CGCM2_3_2  Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan NCAR-PCM  National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSF (a primary sponsor), DOE (a primary sponsor), NASA, and NOAA Model NIES-MIROC3_2-MED  CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan UKMO-HADCM3  Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, United Kingdom

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Arctic Sea Ice Prediction using community climate system model Arctic Sea Ice in 2040 Arctic Sea Ice in 2000

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Thank about what will happen to Artic Polar Bears who lives in Artic

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Antarctic Penguins …

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Prediction of Global Warming Figure shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model. The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Prediction of Temperature increase

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam Prediction of Sea level rise