Fridolin Krausmann ISEE Conference: Ecological Sustainability and Human Well Being New Delhi, 15-18 December 2006 Historical Sustainability Research Out.

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Presentation transcript:

Fridolin Krausmann ISEE Conference: Ecological Sustainability and Human Well Being New Delhi, December 2006 Historical Sustainability Research Out of the frying pan into the fire: Industrialization as a socio-ecological transition process Fridolin Krausmann (for internal use only – do not quote without permission of the author)

Fridolin Krausmann Transitions between socio-ecological regimes ? transition Hunters and gatherers AgrarianIndustrial Socio-ecological regimes Sustainable ? Postindustrial? Knowledge society? Source: Sieferle et al. 2006, modified

Fridolin Krausmann Primary energy use (per capita) United Kingdom Austria Japan

Fridolin Krausmann Share of biomass United Kingdom Austria Japan

Fridolin Krausmann Energy intensity (DEC/GDP)

Fridolin Krausmann Population density United Kingdom Austria Japan

Fridolin Krausmann Share of agricultural population United Kingdom Austria Japan

Fridolin Krausmann The solar energy system: From tapping flows to... Agricultural population Land use Photosynthesis Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows Non-agricultural population Production

Fridolin Krausmann The fossil fuel energy system (coal)....to exploiting stocks Agricultural population Land use Non-agricultural population Production Photosynthesis Fossils Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows

Fridolin Krausmann The fossil fuel energy system (coal)....to exploiting stocks Agricultural population Land use Non-agricultural population Production Photosynthesis Fossils Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows

Fridolin Krausmann The fossil fuel energy system (oil, gas)....to exploiting stocks Agricultural population Land use Non-agricultural population Production Photosynthesis Fossils Human labour Biomass Fossil energy Energy flows

Fridolin Krausmann The transformation of agriculture: From energy source…. Photosynthesis 1 GJ work* etc. 4-7 GJ food Agriculture *primary energy equivalent of work

Fridolin Krausmann Photosynthesis 0,1 GJ work* GJ food GJ fossils Agriculture The transformation of agriculture: ….to energy sink *primary energy equivalent of work

Fridolin Krausmann The metabolic transition The hypothesis of the metabolic transition is derived from historical evidence and claims that industrialization is related to fundamental and characteristic changes in the structure and size of social metabolism: –The transformation of the energy system: from solar based and land related (food, feed, wood) to fossil fuel based; from tapping flows to exploiting stocks –Changing relation of land use and energy: agriculture changes from an „energy source“ to a sink of energy –Absolute growth of population, material and energy use –Relative (per capita) growth of material and energy use –Characteristic metabolic profiles of agrarian and industrial socioecological regimes

Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: agrarian and industrial metabolic profiles AgrarianIndustrialFaktor Energy (per capita)[GJ/cap] Material (per capita)[t/cap] Population density[cap/km²]< Energy (per area)[GJ/ha] Material (per area)[t/ha] Biomass (Share of)[%] ,1-0,3

Fridolin Krausmann Back to the solar energysystem? Energy supply Austria 2000 Energy supply UK Maximum Energy yield under solar constraints 450

Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000 AgrarianIndustrialLDDC Energy (per capita)[GJ/cap] Material (per capita)[t/cap] ,56,7 Population density[cap/km²] Energy (per area)[GJ/ha] Material (per area)[t/ha] ,14,8 Biomass (share of)[%]

Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000 AgrarianIndustrialLDIndia Energy (per capita)[GJ/cap] Material (per capita)[t/cap] ,55 Population density[cap/km²] Energy (per area)[GJ/ha] Material (per area)[t/ha] ,117 Biomass (share of)[%]

Fridolin Krausmann Die Global Metabolic Transition: global metabolic patterns 2000 AgrarianIndustrialLDDC Energy use / cap[GJ/cap] Material use / cap[t/cap] ,56,7 Pop. density[cap/km²] Energy use / area[GJ/ha] Material use / area[t/ha] ,14,8 Biomass[%] Are there alternatives to the historical path of the metabolic transition? Is a sustainable industrial metabolic profile possible?

Fridolin Krausmann Thank you for your attention!