Independents vs. Partisans Do political independents really exist?

Independents vs. Partisans Party ID results from early socialization But, are parties less relevent today? fewer say they are D or R seen as dealignment of party system

Independents Why care? Two views they determine result of many elections votes most moveable is there dealignment, room for third party? Two views less informed, less interested swayed by TV ads, personality, etc. well informed “critical citizens” don’t need party cue anymore

Independents A behavioral phenomena A socially desirable survey response

Partisans vs. Independents Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

Measurement What are we measuring here? 3 qs are used to make “7 point scale” of PID Strong R said “R” and strong Weak R said “R” and weak Ind, leans R said “Ind” and lean R Ind (pure) said “Ind” and don’t lean Ind, leans D said “Ind” and lean D Weak D said “D” and weak Strong D said “D” and strong

Measurement How much weigh should we put in the first Q? “Generally speaking...?” How much weight should we put into how people respond to the follow up Qs? “would you say you think of yourself as closer...”

Partisans vs. Independents If we use “closer”, there are few independent As of 2004: Strong D 17 Weak D 16 Ind D 17 49 D Ind 10 10 I Ind R 12 41 R Weak R 12 Strong R 16

Partisanship trends

http://people-press.org/party-identification-trend/

Partisans vs. Independents When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984 Some oscillation, Dem gains since 2000 What about those independents? which way do they break?

Independents vs. Partisans

Partisans vs. Independents Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2008

Partisans vs. Independents What do these responses mean? Party Identification strongest predictor of voting learned early, social transmision rarely changes over lifetime more people socialized to be “Ind”, or to say “Ind” see F&Z figures

Partisans vs. Independents Funnel of Causality social background Party attachments campaign events vote Values Groups Time (years & years)

Partisans vs. Independents identify w/ party early identification stronger over lifetime partisans more interested in politics Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party hence, elections somewhat predictable

Partisans vs. Independents Independents’ actual behavior fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’ ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to one particular party Leaners may be more ‘partisan’ than weak partisans Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R Highly interested

Partisans v Independents Leaners Critical citizens? Pure independents nothing there, apolitical?

Partisans vs. Independents Independents attitudes but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice Important aspect of dealignment more independents, who are more volitile

Partisans vs. Independents Does a party represent you reasonably well

Partisans vs. Independents

Partisans vs. Independents Anderson (+ others) 1980 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R Perot 1992 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs Nader 2000 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps 0% from weak/strong partisans

Independents Interested? Care who wins: