Investing in volatile times Investing Fundamentals and How MLC’s portfolios are designed to weather market volatility September 2008

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Investment Fundamentals ‘Why invest in risky assets?’

Why invest in risky assets? ‘To generate desired returns, investors must be willing to accept higher volatility.’ Source: MLC Investment Management Expected real return and risk assumptions 5 year expectations

Why invest in risky assets? ‘Riskier assets have a wider spread of returns, but higher potential returns.’ Source data based upon the following: Cash: UBSWA 90 Day Bank Bill Index (from April 1988 only), Global Bonds: Lehman Global Aggregate Hedged (from January 1986 only), Aust Bonds: UBS Composite Bond All Mats (from Nov 1989 only), Propertys: S&P/ASX 300 Property Trusts Accumulation Index, Aust Shares: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index (from January 1986 only), Global Shares: MSCI World (ex Australia) in $A Gross Return

Why invest in risky assets? History shows risky assets are more likely to generate better long-term returns…

Equities are investments in real companies

Investment Fundamentals ‘How to invest sensibly’

Source data: Australian Shares: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. Global Shares: MSCI World Gross Accumulation Index ($A). Property: ASX 200 Property Trust Accumulation Index. Australian Bonds: UBS Composite Bond Index. The Diversified Portfolio is an equally weighted portfolio of all asset classes. Invest sensibly … and make sure your portfolio is diversified…

Invest sensibly… Focus on the long-term Short-term noise, long-term clarity January September 2008 Source: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index from end Nov 02 Short-term noise here is graphically represented by monthly performance returns The clarity is the accumulated long-term effect of this short-term volatility

Invest sensibly… Understand market volatility What goes up, must come down, occasionally Jan September 2008 Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index

How to invest sensibly… It’s time in, not timing, the market that matters Missing the 10 Best Days can cost you big time Value of $10,000 invested in 1980 Data: All Ordinaries Price Index (to Dec 2003), S&P/ASX 300 Price Index (to September 2008)

How to invest sensibly… Chasing returns can be a costly strategy

How MLC’s portfolios are built to weather the storm?

MLC Horizon Series portfolios are designed to weather market volatility Broad Diversification at many levels –Stocks –Countries & Currencies –Managers Long-Term Asset Allocation Approach –Disciplined approach for many states of the world –Regular rebalancing Specialist Investment Managers –Several excellent managers –Different, but complementary, manager approaches

Weathering Market Volatility…Diversification at many levels Diversified across asset classes & sub-asset classes The current asset & asset classes used across the Horizon Series portfolios

Weathering Market Volatility…Diversification at many levels Diversified across investment managers The current manager line-up for Australian shares exposure within the Horizon Series portfolios

Weathering Market Volatility…Diversification at many levels Diversified across many different industries The current Australian share industry exposure within the Horizon Series portfolios

Weathering Market Volatility…Diversification at many levels Diversified across companies The current Australian shares company exposure within the Horizon Series portfolios

Weathering Market Volatility…Diversification at many levels Diversify, Diversify, Diversify The current manager line-up for the MLC Horizon 4 – Balanced portfolio Allocation to many asset classes 30 public market managers 35 private equity managers 40+ countries 60+ industries 1,000+ shares 1,000+ bonds

Weathering Market Volatility… Long-Term Asset Allocation Approach 1.Steady State 2.Deflation – constructive / productivity driven boom (1870s) 3.Stagflation (1970s), includes transition to high inflation 4.Rising inflation / inflation shock (reverse of disinflation) 5.Debt driven growth 6.Disinflation 7.Generalised global growth boom – investor optimism 8.Investor pessimism – rise in risk premiums 9.Prolonged global growth & productivity boom BRICs Res Boom 10.Economy & market bust 11.Australia only bust (world econ not weak) 12.Australian economic crisis (reversal of scenario 8) World Weak 13.Profit share mean reversion 14.Credit / monetary expansion 15.Credit / monetary contraction 16.Steady / trend growth with mean reversion 17.Slowdown 18.Recession 19.Recovery 20.Aus deflation – destructive (Japan 1990s) 21.Global depression or stagnation (1930s) 22.Hyperinflation (Germany post war) 23.Financial collapse (eg Asian financial collapse, LTCM) 24.Oil price or other commodity price shock 25.Global pandemic 26.Global catastrophe 27.Global catastrophe adverse economic environment 28.Global conflict / war 29.Protectionism 30.Exogenous risk drives investor uncertainty 31.Structural collapse 32.Market bust – Rise in Correlations 33.Deregulation 34.Paradigm shift – permanently lower vals for equities (higher rp) 35.Paradigm shift – permanently higher vals for equities (lower rp) 36.Speculative bubble Taking into account many different possibilities Some of the current scenarios considered in determining the Horizon Series asset allocation

Weathering Market Volatility… Many Excellent Investment Managers

SUMMARY Recent market volatility has been merely a realisation of low volatility over last few years Market volatility is to be expected in any long-term investment approach Best approach is generally to diversify and stick to your long-term investment strategy MLC Horizon Series portfolios are well diversified and designed to help you reach your long-term goals