Global Warming: Is It True? Peter Fuller Odeliah Greene Amanda Smith May Zin.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Warming: Is It True? Peter Fuller Odeliah Greene Amanda Smith May Zin

What is Global Warming? Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-twentieth century, and its projected continuation.

Data We’re Using Our data showed monthly average temperatures in England from

Forecasting Goal Our purpose is to explore the validity of Global Warming with regards to temperature change in England.

Trace

Histogram

Correlogram

Unit Root Test ADF Test Statistic % Critical Value* % Critical Value % Critical Value *MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(TEMP) Method: Least Squares Date: 06/02/08 Time: 03:02 Sample(adjusted): 1850: :04 Included observations: 1899 after adjusting endpoints VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. TEMP(-1) C R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

How we go about fixing the data We seasonally differenced the model using a new variable: SDTemp=Temp-Temp(-12)

Our best model Our best model is: SDTemp C AR(1) AR(2) MA(12) AR(19) w/ ARCH (1) and GARCH (0)

Estimation Output

Actual, Fitted Residual Graph

Histogram

Correlogram

ARCH LM Test ARCH Test: F-statistic7.80E-05 Probability Obs*R-squared7.81E-05 Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: STD_RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 06/02/08 Time: 03:41 Sample(adjusted): 1852: :04 Included observations: 1868 after adjusting endpoints VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C STD_RESID^2(-1) R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic7.80E-05 Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

Within Sample Forecast

Recoloring our Within Sample Forecast

Forecasting Ahead

Recoloring our Forecast of the Future

Seasonal Dummies

Conclusion We must look to other data such as rainfall, sea levels, ocean temperatures, C0 2 data to say that global warming does exist.