Alan F. Hamlet Nate Mantua Todd Mitchell JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington ENSO Transition.

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Presentation transcript:

Alan F. Hamlet Nate Mantua Todd Mitchell JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington ENSO Transition and the Potential for Extremely Wet Winters in the PNW

Natural Flows at Milner

Nino 3.4 Forecast (2010)

Nino 3.4 Forecast (2011)

Historic Dalles Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO Stats: 12 of 14 above of 14 above of 14 above 0.87 Water Year Average April- Sept Flow (cfs) Anomaly (cfs) Std. Anomaly (number of standard deviations from the mean)

Natural Streamflow (cfs) Based on Dalles Climatology Warm season flow in 2008 was slightly above the long term mean.

Historic Milner Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO WY Std Deviations from the Mean Stats: 5 of 7 above of 7 above 1.7

enso_2008enso_trans_2008 Based on Milner ESP Natural Flow (KAF)

Emerging Prospects for Long-Term Predictability

Source: Okumura, Y.M. and C. Deser, 2010: Asymmetry in the Duration of El Niño and La Niña, /12 warm ENSO events above 1.0 threshold are followed by cool ENSO events 5/12 warm ENSO events above 1.0 are followed by cool ENSO events below 1.0

Conclusions Water year pairs with ENSO transitions from warm to cool phase in a single year are strongly associated historically with above average flow in Columbia and Snake Rivers in the second (cool ENSO) year. Historically such paired (warm/cool) events are more likely to occur when a strong (above 1.0 std deviation) warm event occurs. Thus increased odds of above average flow are predictable with very long lead times of up to 24 months under certain conditions. In June 1997, with a strong warm ENSO event clearly underway, elevated odds of high flows in warm season 1999 would have been predicted, for example. These kinds of long range forecasts have potentially useful application to water resources management problems. In particular, the amount of storage that can be safely used during low flow conditions in warm ENSO years is arguably a function of the strength of the warm ENSO event.