Just the Facts: Montana’s Adult Learners and Workforce Needs Barbara Wagner Senior Economist Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau Presented at the Governor’s Forum on Adult Credentialing, Kalispell Montana, August 12, 2010

Today’s Topics 1.Drawing the Connection between Education and the Economy 2.Education as an Economic Development Tool 3.Education and Workforce Training – Helping Workers Adjust to a Changing Economy

Per Capita Income by State, 2008

Percent of Population with High School Diploma Source: American Community Survey, and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008

Education and Income are Positively Correlated Source: American Community Survey, and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008

Percent of Population with College or Advanced Degrees Source: American Community Survey,

Wages for MT Jobs by Minimum Training Category

MT Poverty Rate by Educational Attainment Source: American Community Survey, Population over 25 for whom status has been determined.

US Unemployment Rates by Education Level Source: Current Population Statistics

Montana Unemployment Rate by Education Level, st Half Unemployment Rate Less than a HS Diploma18.1% HS Graduate or GED12.0% Some College, No Degree8.3% Associate Degree8.6% Bachelor’s Degree or Higher3.8% Source: Current Population Statistics

Take-away Points: Why Education Matters to the Economy Education is highly correlated with other economic indicators: – Per capita income – Labor force participation – High wages – Lower unemployment High-skill workers are more productive and more capable of developing improvements in technology or process.

How is Montana Doing? MT Percent of Population Over 25 National AverageRank among 50 States High School Diploma 90.9%85%5 College Degree27.1%27.7%22 Advanced Degree 8.4%10.2%34

Percent of Population with an Upper Secondary Degree Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2005

MT Educational Attainment is Decreasing in Lower Age Groups Percent of Population 25 Years and Older with

MT Jobs by Minimum Training Category Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, 2009

How to Attract More Knowledge- Based Jobs Create seamless and integrated workforce training and education system to develop workers from kindergarten through graduate school to continuing workforce education. Create trade organizations to help foster technology diffusion and continued education for professionals. Attract science, technology, and professional services jobs by having a well-educated workforce. Attract entrepreneurs to start businesses in Montana with our quality of life and access to outdoors, but improve transportation so they can still access customers.

Today’s Topics 1.Drawing the Connection between Education and the Economy 2.Education as an Economic Development Tool 3.Education and Workforce Training – Helping Workers Adjust to a Changing Economy

Significant Loss of Jobs in the Recession U.S. 5.4% Job Loss MT 3.5% Job Loss Source: Current Employment Statistics, 2007 through June 2010 preliminary

Recession Job Losses by Industry Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 4 th quarter 2007 to 4 th quarter 2009

Regional Impact of Recession Annual Job Growth by Region, 2007 Q4 to 2009 Q4 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Occupations with the Largest Losses Statewide Occupation Estimated Recession Losses Carpenters -2,010 Retail Salespersons -1,398 Construction Laborers -1,066 Cashiers -851 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks -697 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -622 Electricians -513 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators -450 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters -445 General and Operations Managers -435

Ten Occupations with the Largest Losses in Northwest MT Occupation Number of Jobs Lost Carpenters -640 Retail Salespersons -530 Cashiers -300 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks -300 Construction Laborers -290 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -270 Waiters and Waitresses -250 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food -220 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators -200 Electricians -190

Some Jobs will Return, but Excess Supply of Workers will Continue Job Losses Projected Annual Growth Years to Full Employment Carpenters Retail Salespersons Cashiers Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Audit Clerks Construction Laborers Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Waiters and Waitresses Food Preparation and Serving Workers Operating Engineers Electricians Top Ten Occupations with Job Losses in Northwest Montana with Projected Openings

Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers Occupation Projected Annual Growth Registered Nurses98 Accountants and Auditors72 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers72 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing70 Office Clerks, General66 Cooks, Restaurant63 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General61 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants53 Personal and Home Care Aides52 Lawyers47

Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply. Excess Workers Occupations Retail Salespeople Carpenters or Construction Laborers Wait Staff Occupations that Need Workers Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing Maintenance and Repair Workers Lawyers ?

Thank you. Please visit to view Dr. Eldridge’s presentation.