Assessing the Potential of Energy Efficiency Programmes in South Africa by Modelling Selected Policy Interventions Alison Hughes Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town South Africa

Contents Overview of Current Demand Government Agenda Model Structure and Methodology Savings and Government targets

Energy intensity high across all sectors and sub sectors Large dependence on Coal Energy efficiency is not a priority

Final energy demand by sector 2003 Final energy use by carrier

Electrical Generating Capacity Capacity (MWe) Coal Nuclear1840 Bagasse105 Hydro667 Gas Turbines662 Pumped Storage1580 Total37056

Draft energy efficiency strategy Set National and Sector targets for improved energy efficiency Focus on –Fuel poverty –Job creation improve industrial competitiveness –Health –Defer the need for generating capacity –Environment

CABEERE –Capacity development –Research Baselines and benchmarking Policies and measures

Measures considered –Standards and labeling –Free/Susidised audit schemes –Promotion of technologies –Awareness campaigns and green accounting Implementation –3 phases Phase to 2006 Phase to 2010 Phase to 2013

Standards Energy Audits Energy Management Technologies IndustrialBoilers Subsidised Audit Schemes / Awareness and Information Compressed Air Efficient Lighting (Awareness) Insulation Other Maintenance Thermal Measures (Awareness) Electric Motors Green Accounts Variable Speed Drives (Awareness) Commercial Energy Efficiency Standards Audit Scheme for Public and Commercial Buildings Management Systems Efficient Lighting Green Accounts Thermal Measures Residential Energy Efficiency Standards Behaviour Changes Efficient Lighting Labelling

Assessing Potential Methodology –Establish average technical potential for energy saving –Define implementation rates –Estimate effect of the measure –Evaluate impact on energy demand using LEAP –Scenarios Baseline (IEP Baseline) Maximum theoretical impact Likely impact

Rate of change of efficiency dependent on –Potential for efficiency improvement –Anticipated success of measure –Equipment replacement rates –Growth No specific financing Sub sector growth relative to economic or population growth Efficiency Useful energy intensity Final Energy Demand

Modelling Assumptions –The years 2003 to 2013 are evaluated. –Population growth: from 44 million in 2000 at 1.3% (p.a.) to 2010, then 0.87% (p.a.) to 2013 –GDP growth: 2.8% average annual growth over period. –Fuel switching is limited apart from a general increase in electricity consumption in the residential sector, with electrification.

SectorsIndustry –Pulp and Paper –Iron and Steel –Chemicals and Petrochemicals –Food and Tobacco –Non - Metallic Minerals –Other (including textiles) –Non – Ferrous Metals Mining and Quarrying CommerceResidentialTransport Energy demand of sub sectors Thermal heat –Fuel Process demand e.g. Lighting, refrigeration, compressed air etc.

Base Case Growth in Energy Demand

Government targets –National target of energy efficiency improvement of 12% by 2014 –Sector targets Residential Sector 10% Industrial Sector 15% Commercial and Public Buildings 15% Launch Labeling Campaign Monitor and Evaluate Measures