Trends in Homicide in the United States by Fulano de Tal

Trends in Twentieth Century Two Sharp Peaks –during alcohol prohibition –during drug prohibition High unemployment also correlates with high homicide rates The decline in homicide in the 1990s corresponds to a period of declining gun ownership

The first increase was during alcohol prohibition The second was during drug prohibition The recent decline, however, is during a period of continuing drug prohibition

There was a increase in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s when homicide increased This was true for men and women Unemployment declined in the 1990s as the homicide rate declined. The 1930s was also a period of high unemployment

Correlation Between Unemployment Rates and Homicide Rates Homicide rates and unemployment rates are positively correlated This is true for both men and women Data are for 53 years

Gun ownership also declined during the 1990s when homicide and other crime rates declined

Conclusions Vigorous efforts to enforce prohibition of drugs or alcohol may lead to higher homicide rates Higher unemployment rates may lead to increased homicide rates Cutting the number of households with guns may cut homicide rates