8 8 C h a p t e r Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency second edition Fundamentals of Investments Valuation & Management Charles J. Corrado Bradford D. Jordan McGraw Hill / IrwinSlides by Yee-Tien (Ted) Fu

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin One of the Funny Things about the Stock Market One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one man buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.. – William Feather

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency Our goal in this chapter is to discuss bull markets, bear markets, as well as other market phenomena and psychology. We will also consider if anyone can consistently “beat the market.” Goal

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Technical Analysis  investors with a positive outlook on the market are often called “bulls,” and a rising market is called a bull market. Pessimistic investors are called “bears,” and a falling market is called a bear market  Technical analysts essentially search for bullish (positive) and bearish (negative) signals about stock prices or market direction. Technical analysis Techniques for predicting market direction based on (1) historical price and volume behavior, and (2) investor sentiment (reaction and emotion ).

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Dow Theory  Dow theory is a method of analyzing and interpreting stock market movements that dates back to the turn of the century. The theory is named after Charles Dow, a cofounder of the Dow Jones Company and an editor of the Dow Jones-owned newspaper, The Wall Street Journal.  The Dow theory is a method of interpreting and signaling changes in the stock market direction based on the monitoring of the Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages.  The Dow theory identifies three forces:  a primary direction or trend,  a secondary reaction or trend, and  daily fluctuations.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Daily fluctuations are essentially noise and are of no real importance. Dow Theory The primary direction is either bullish or bearish, and reflects the long-run direction of the market. Secondary trends are temporary departures from the primary direction. Corrections are reversions back to the primary direction. Time Prices DJIA DJTA If a departure in one is followed by a departure in the other, then this is viewed as a confirmation that the primary trend has changed.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Support and Resistance Levels  A key concept in technical analysis is the identification of support and resistance levels  A support level is a price or level below which a stock or the market as a whole is unlikely to go, while a resistance level is a price or level above which a stock or the market as a whole is unlikely to rise.  Resistance and support areas are usually viewed as psychological barriers - bargain hunters help “support” the lower level, while profit takers “resist” the upper level.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Support and Resistance Levels  A “breakout” occurs when a stock (or the market) passes through either a support or a resistance level.

Technical Indicators McGraw Hill / Irwin

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Technical Indicators  technical analysts rely on a variety of so-called technical indicators to forecast the direction  of the market.  One popular technical indicator is called the “advance/decline line.” This line shows, for some period, the cumulative difference between advancing issues and declining issues. For example, suppose we had the following information for a particular trading week.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Technical Indicators

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Technical Indicators Notes:  The “advance/decline line” shows, for some period, the cumulative difference between advancing and declining issues.  “Closing tick” is the difference between the number of shares that closed on an uptick and those that closed on a downtick.  “Closing arms” or “trin” (trading index) is the ratio of average trading volume in declining issues to average trading volume in advancing issues.  “zBlock trades” are trades in excess of 10,000 shares.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Technical Indicators  Values greater than 1.0 are considered bearish because the indication is that declining shares had heavier volume.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting  Relative strength charts measure the performance of one investment relative to another, or one company, industry, or market relative to another.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting Stock A Stock B Relative Month (4 shares) (2 shares) Strength 1$100$ A ratio bigger than 1.0 indicates that, on a relative basis, Ford has outperformed GM, and vice versa. Thus, a value of 1.20 indicates that Ford has done 20 percent better than GM over the period studied. Notice that if both stocks are down, a ratio bigger than 1.0 indicates that Ford is down by less than GM.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting  Moving average charts are average daily prices or index levels, calculated using a fixed number of previous days’ prices or levels, updated each day.  Since the price fluctuations are smoothed out, such charts are used to identify short- and long-term trends, often along the lines suggested by Dow theory.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting Time Prices DJIA 50-day moving average 200-day moving average

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting  Example 8.2 A Moving Experience Using the stock prices in Example 8.1, construct three month moving averages for both stocks.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting  A hi-lo-close chart is a bar chart showing, for each day, the high price, low price, and closing price.  A candlestick chart is an extended version of the hi-lo-close chart. It plots the high, low, open, and closing prices, and also shows whether the closing price was above or below the opening price.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting  Point-and-figure charts are a way of showing only major price moves and their direction.  A “major” upmove is marked with an “X,” while a “major” downmove is marked with an “O.” A new column starts every time there is a change in direction.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Charting

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Chart Formations  Once a chart is drawn, technical analysts examine it for various formations or pattern types in an attempt to predict stock price or market direction.  One example is the head-and-shoulders formation.  When the stock price “pierces the neckline” after the right shoulder is finished, it’s time to sell.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Chart Formations

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Other Technical Indicators  The “odd-lot” indicator looks at whether odd- lot purchases (purchases of fewer than 100 shares) are up or down.  Followers of the “hemline” indicator claim that hemlines tend to rise in good times.  The Super Bowl indicator forecasts the direction of the market based on whether the National Football Conference or the American Football Conference wins. A win by the National Football Conference is bullish.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Work the Web  Learn more about technical analysis at:  Select “Chart School.” Then try “Tools & Charts.”  You may also want to look at: 

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Market Efficiency Market efficiency Relation between stock prices and information available to investors indicating whether it is possible to “beat the market.” If a market is efficient, it is not possible, except by luck. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) Theory asserting that, as a practical matter, the major financial markets reflect all relevant information at a given time.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin What Does “Beat the Market” Mean?  The excess return on an investment is the return in excess of that earned by other investments having the same risk.  “Beating the market” means consistently earning a positive excess return.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Forms of Market Efficiency Weak-form efficient market A market in which past prices and volume figures are of no use in beating the market. Semistrong-form efficient market A market in which publicly available information is of no use in beating the market. Strong-form efficient market A market in which information of any kind, public or private, is of no use in beating the market.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Why would a Market be Efficient?  The driving force toward market efficiency is simply competition and the profit motive.  Even relatively small performance enhancements can be worth tremendous amounts of money (when multiplied by the dollar amount involved), thereby creating the incentive to unearth relevant information and use it.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Are Financial Markets Efficient?  Market efficiency is very difficult to test.  There are four basic reasons for this:  The risk-adjustment problem.  The relevant information problem.  The dumb luck problem.  The data snooping problem.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Are Financial Markets Efficient?  Nevertheless, three generalities about market efficiency can be made:  Short-term stock price and market movements appear to be difficult to predict with any accuracy.  The market reacts quickly and sharply to new information, and various studies find little or no evidence that such reactions can be profitably exploited.  If the stock market can be beaten, the way to do so is not obvious.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Some Implications of Market Efficiency If markets are efficient …  … security selection becomes less important, as the securities will be fairly priced.  … little role exists for professional money managers.  … it makes little sense to time the market.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency  The day-of-the-week effect refers to the tendency for Monday to have a negative average return. Weekday:MonTueWedThuFri Avg return:–.078%.035%.098%.026%.063% Average Daily S&P 500 Returns by Day of the Week July December 1994 Dividends Not Included

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency  The January effect refers to the tendency for small stocks to have large returns in January.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency  On October 19, 1987 (Black Monday), the Dow plummeted 500 points to 1,700, leaving investors with about $500 billion in losses. The market lost over 20% of its value on a record volume of 600 million shares traded.  NYSE circuit breakers are rules that kick in to slow or stop trading when the DJIA declines by more than a preset amount in a trading session.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency  In 36 years (from 1963 to mid-1998), the S&P 500 index outperformed the general equity mutual funds (GEFs) 22 times.

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Chapter Review  Technical Analysis  Dow Theory  Support and Resistance Levels  Technical Indicators  Charting Relative Strength Charts Moving Average Charts Hi-Lo-Close and Candlestick Charts Point-and-Figure Charts  Chart Formations  Other Technical Indicators

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Chapter Review  Market Efficiency  What Does “Beat the Market” Mean?  Forms of Market Efficiency  Why would a Market be Efficient?  Are Financial Markets Efficient?  Some Implications of Market Efficiency

 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw Hill / Irwin Chapter Review  Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency  The Day-of-the-Week Effect  The Amazing January Effect  The October 1987 Crash  Performance of Professional Money Managers