Phase II Gather Data – Coastal Shipping Data: PORT MIS – Import and Export O/D in Korea: Survey – Customs Agency Data Build Model – Model I: Minimize Total Logistics Cost – Model II: Find Where SSS can be more competitive 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Phase II Gather Data – Coastal Shipping Data: PORT MIS – Import / Export O/D in Korea: Survey – Customs Agency Data: Shipmentwise OD data 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Phase II Coastal Shipping Data: PORT MIS 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Coastal Shipping in Korea There are 28 Foreign Trade Ports and 23 Coastal Port Foreign Trade Ports are evenly developed along West, South and East Coast Coastal Ports are concentrated 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Major Cargoes by coastal shipping 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Major coastal port PortHandlingpercentCumulative percent Incheon54, Gwangyang29, Ulsan Busan15, Pohang13, Donghae10, Daesan7, Masan6, Mokpo6, Gunsan5, Jeju2, Yeosu2, Others100, Total276, In thousand R/T 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Coastal shipping by ship type TotalTankerGeneral Cargo Sand carrier Cement carrierContainerSteel product Waste carrier Tug No. of companies No. of ships2, Ship Tonnage (1,000 G/T) 1, Coastal Shipping by Ship Type (Dec. 31, 2003) Notes: 752 barges having 482,000 G/T were classified into respective ship type group. Sand carrier group included 433 barges (155,000 G/T) owned by 191 companies used for carrying construction materials within the boundary of port authorities. 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Number of Coastal Shipping Companies by Number or Size TotalOne shipTwo shipsThreeFourFive Six and over Total50 50 ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ 1,000 Over 1, Number of Coastal Shipping Companies by Number of Owning Ships Number of Coastal Shipping Companies by Size of Capital Asset (Unit: Million Won, No. of companies) 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Port MIS - Diagram Port- MIS Yeosu Incheon Busan Incheon Pyungtaek Daesan BoryeongJanghang Gunsan PC Regional DB 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University OD Analysis Process (Summary) ItemRemark Analysis Period1997 ~ Sept 2004* Analysis Ports37 ports Analysis Cargoes Iron steel, Cement, Iron ore, Sand, Oil product, Container, General cargo, Waste material OD Analysis Details Flow Chart for OD Analysis Process Acquisition of raw data Extraction and classification of data for analysis 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Forecast of Major Research Results: - Freight Flow Diagram by Coastal Cargo Type - Box Size: Cargo Volume by port (volume handled) Line thickness: Cargo volume between ports Incheon (Capacity) Busan (Capacity) Pyeogtaek (Capacity) Ulsan (Capacity) Pohang (Capacity) Donghae (Capacity) Daesan (Capacity) Masan (Capacity) Mokpo (Capacity) Gunsan (Capacity) Jeju (Capacity) Yeosu (Capacity) Other 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Definition of Coastal Shipping Cargo  Origin-Destination Freight Flow Matrices –Q: total transportation volume of coastal shipping during a specific year –Q j : total input flow volume of coastal shipping into port j –f ij : total volume of freight flow from port i to j – Origin Destination Port A Port B Port X A B X : k type product freight flow from port i to port j. O-D Freight Flow Matrix 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Inha University Analysis Results of Major Coastal Cargo using Port MIS Top 7 Major Cargoes accounting for 93.2 of the total coastal cargo: Necessity to analyze major shippers 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

OD Analysis Results by Cargo Type Total Coastal Cargo Volume by Cargo in Korea (unit: 1,000 ton) Total cargo volume of 8 cargoes (iron steel, cement, oil product, sand, iron ore, container, general cargo, and waste material) from 1997 to 2004: billion tons, with 5.1 % of annual growth rate. 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

OD Analysis Results by Cargo Type - Ore 2004 Destination (Destination)-Entry Origin- Departure Ratio GwangyangPohangIncheonYeosuSamcheonpoSamcheok Other ports Donghae Port 44.52%28.45%15.99%0.00% 0.08% Pohang Port 14.52%8.82%2.27%0.00%0.01%1.30%0.00%2.11% Gwangyang Port 10.18%0.00%0.18%5.72%0.00%0.73%2.02%1.53% Samcheonpo 5.66%0.00% 4.70%0.02% 0.91% Mukho Port 3.52%0.00%3.48%0.00% 0.04%0.00% Other ports 21.61%7.29%7.95%0.00% 0.44%0.00%5.94% Ratio 44.55%29.87%5.72%4.72%2.53%2.04% % Major Ore production area in Korea Major coastal ports (Ore consumption area) 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume) 1) Iron Ore 2) Cement 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume) 3) Oil and Bituminous Oil Product 4) Crude oil 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume) 5) Natural sand 6) Iron steel and its product 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume) 7) Chemical product 8) Other product 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Freight Flow Forecast Model - Building time series analysis model using multi-linear regression analysis and moving average method - Dependent variables: GDP, total value added of manufacturing/construction industries, index of factory operating ratio OD forecast for measuring total shipping fleet - ratio of freight flow between Origin and Destination by cargo for 2004 (or cumulative freight flow in the period of ) - Total freight flow forecast X ratio of freight flow between Origin and Destination OD Analysis PORT-MIS Actual Data Annual Statistics Data Other Data Time Series Analysis OD Data Freight Flow Forecast Data Data of Freight Flow Forecast between Origin & Destination Freight Flow Forecast Process by Cargo (Summary) 2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011