Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies Economic data tells a story of two.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies Economic data tells a story of two influences on local economy: – Growth in the national economy… Growth in Pueblo’s manufacturing industries. – Poor performance of the Colorado economy… Loss of jobs in Pueblo retail and service industries. “Muted recovery” from financial crisis.

National Economy at a Glance Source: BLS 2011JanuaryFebruaryMarchApril Change in Payroll Employment 68,000235,000221,000244,000 Unemployment Rate Inflation0.40.5

U.S. Unemployment 13.5 million unemployed (March 2011) – 7.7 million in December million unemployed over 27 weeks (1.2 million in 2007)

Leeds Business Confidence Index Survey of Colorado Business Leaders

Colorado State Monthly Employment

Unemployment Rates for Colorado and Surrounding States StateUnemployment Rate (March) Source: BLS Colorado9.2% Wyoming6.2% Nebraska4.2% Kansas6.8% New Mexico8.1% Utah7.6%

Pueblo County Employment

Pueblo Employment Growth is Uneven Source: BLS IndustryGrowth: Oct-2010 to Mar-2011 Mining, Logging and ConstructionStable (at 3,200) Manufacturing+ 200 jobs Trade, Transportation and Utilities- 300 jobs InformationStable (at 700) Financial ActivitiesStable (at 1,900) Professional and Business Services+100 jobs Educational and Health Services-100 jobs Leisure and Hospitality-100 jobs Other Services-100 jobs Government+200 jobs

Unemployment Rates for Surrounding Counties (Source: CDLE) CountyUnemployment Rate (March 2011) Pueblo County11.2% Crowley County10.8% Otero County10.4% Las Animas County10.3% Huerfano County12.9% Custer County7.5% Fremont County11.6% State Average9.2%

Pueblo County Sales Tax

Is the worst behind us?

Return of the Seasonal Employment Trend? January-March Seasonal Trend Pueblo County Employment Growth Source: BLS more jobs more jobs fewer jobs more jogs 20111,181 more jobs

Pueblo County Unemployment

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Source: CDLE

Pueblo Foreclosures Source: DOLA

New Privately Owned Residential Building Permits Source: Census Bureau Less building, fewer loans into Pueblo

Pueblo’s Economic Outlook? Strengths: Local manufacturing employment and trend in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Weaknesses: High local unemployment and the local housing market. Threats: State budget cuts. CU forecast (December 2010): “Worst is over- maybe”. Momentum of US economy will lift Colorado and Pueblo. But, it will take time.

Pueblo Retail Sales

Colorado and Pueblo Unemployment

Pueblo Employment Trends January, 2011: – Employment = 65,232 – Unemployment Rate = 11.8% March, 2011: – Employment = 66,413 – Unemployment Rate = 11.2%