Synoptic-statistical approaches to regional downscaling of IPCC 21st century climate projections: A Hawaiian Islands study Oliver Timm, International Pacific.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
AGENZIA REGIONALE PER LA PROTEZIONE DELLAMBIENTE DELLA SARDEGNA ARPAS Andrea Motroni Climate, climate change and desertification.
Advertisements

Statistical downscaling of rainfall extremes for the Hawaiian Islands Oliver Elison Timm 1 Henry F. Diaz 2 Thomas Giambelluca 3 Mami Takahashi 3 1 International.
Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity Justin Sheffield 1, Julio E. Herrera-Estrada 2, Kelly Caylor 1, Eric F. Wood 1 1 Dept.
Scaling Laws, Scale Invariance, and Climate Prediction
IPRC Symposium on Ocean Salinity and Global Water Cycle Recent Trends and Future Rainfall Changes in Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii, Presentation by.
The Effect on Climate of Seasonal Variation in Air Masses and Global Circulation Figures are from: Lutgens, F. (2007). The Atmosphere, 10ed. Upper Saddle.
HIGH AND LOW RAINFALL EVENTS IN HAWAI‘I IN RELATION TO LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC Mami Takahashi 1, Oliver Elison Timm 2, Thomas W. Giambelluca.
1 2.5 Distance from the Oceans Understand how distance from the oceans affects climate.
THE CLIMATE OF HAWAII An edge of your seat thriller!
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip.
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
The Science of Climate Change in Hawai‘i Statistical Downscaling of Rainfall Projections for Hawai‘i Asia Room, East-West Center, 1:30-5:00 pm January.
Statistical Projection of Global Climate Change Scenarios onto Hawaiian Rainfall Oliver Timm, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University.
May 2007 vegetation Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Weather and climate in the 21 st Century: What do we know? What don’t we know?
Outline Further Reading: Chapter 09 of the text book - climate controls - temperature and precipitation influences - climate classification methodology.
Digital weather recording instruments
Climate.
Table of Contents DateTitleLesson # 8/25CHAMPs – Focus1 8/26Spatial Analysis2 8/285 Themes of Geography3 8/295 A’s4 9/2Tools5 9/3Physical Processes6 9/23Climographs7.
Capacity-Building Workshop: Climate Change Adaptation and Water Resources in the Caribbean Region John Charlery – University of the West Indies
Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2007 Boston University Myneni L30:
December 2002 Section 2 Past Changes in Climate. Global surface temperatures are rising Relative to average temperature.
Water Resources: Hydroclimatic Forensics Through Reanalysis Bryson C. Bates Leader, Pathways to Adaptation Theme 24 th June 2008 Climate Adaptation.
National Weather Service Technical Attachment No John Monteverdi San Francisco State University Jan Null National Weather Service Today’s Presenter:
Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.
THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR JFM 2011 HUI-LING WU and CHIH-HUI SHIAO.
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Assessment WMO Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones February 2010 World Weather Research.
Influence of the blended ship log book and station SLP data set on Mediterranean temperature & precipitation back to 1750 June Jürg Luterbacher.
Climate change impact on drought risk and uncertainty in the Willamette River basin Dept. of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR Il-Won.
Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Options Nathan Bindoff et al. ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA,
Climate of North America 101 What are the major controls on North American climate? What is the dominant flow pattern across North America in winter? How.
Studies of IGBP-related subjects in Northern Eurasia at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences Andrey B.Shmakin.
CC-07: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Weather: Evidence from Hawaii Kevin F. Forbes The Catholic University of America Washington, DC .
Seasonal Outlook Long Range Forecast
The General Circulation Anthes 5: Global Pressure and Precipitation Zones.
Table of Contents DateTitleLesson # 8/25CHAMPs – Focus1 8/26Spatial Analysis2 8/285 Themes of Geography3 8/295 A’s4 9/2Tools5 9/3Physical Processes6 9/23Climographs7.
Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Winter of Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Monday December 7.
Does El Niño Intensity Matter for California Precipitation? Andy Hoell*, Marty Hoerling*, Jon Eischeid* #, Klaus Wolter* #, Randy Dole *, Judith Perlwitz*
Michigan’s Changing Climate: Recent Past and Projected Future Trends Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography Michigan State University.
How will Climate Change Affect Weather Patterns in the Great Lakes Region? Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing,
How mountains affect climate.
Climate Change and Water Supply: Potential Hydrologic Consequences Guido Franco Technical Lead for Climate Change Research Public Interest Energy Research.
CLIMOGRAPHS How do I read a Climograph!?!?!?!?!.
Geography and Life in Arabia
1. Objective (READ) SWBAT explain what is found on a climograph. 2. Question of the Day. (TURN OBJECTIVE INTO A QUESTION) 3. Warm-up (ANSWER) A. Which.
Weather and Climate Vocabulary 3-5 Grade. Rain Gauge An instrument used to measure the amount of rainfall.
Rate of Weathering- Rock Composition- Amount of Exposure (surface area)- The amount of exposure a rock is showing affects it’s rate of weathering because.
Climate Change ??? How Is it Detected?. Difficulties of Detecting Climate Change Climate systems are intrinsically noisy Climate systems are intrinsically.
Deserts Presented by : Laura Fussaro. Deserts? Introduction Deserts occur when the annual rainfall is less than about 25 centimeters (10 inches), though.
Northeast Regional Climate Information Projected Climate Changes for the Northeast More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, 100-year storm.
Regional Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington With: Cliff Mass, Patrick Zahn, Rick Steed.
16/11/20161 Introduction Heavy rains hits Mahe Island during dry season.
Climate change and meteorological drivers of widespread flooding in the UK EA/Defra/NRW Research and Development (R&D) project board meeting, London, March.
Climate Change & India’s Monsoons
Oliver Elison Timm ATM 306 Fall 2016
Climate Change slides for Exam Two
Climate and Climate Change
I am a climate scientist in chemist’s clothing with an
Can recently observed precipitation trends over the Mediterranean area be explained by climate change projections? Armineh Barkhordarian1, Hans von Storch1,2.
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results
Notebook Setup On page 24, glue down the Climograph worksheet that starts with “Vocabulary” On page 25, glue down the Climograph worksheet with the bar.
Natural Climate Changes
Climate and Climate Change
Impact of climate change on water cycle: trends and challenges
Recent Climate Change Modeling Results
Changes in Precipitation and Drought
Roger Pielke, Sr, Director
Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific
Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific
Presentation transcript:

Synoptic-statistical approaches to regional downscaling of IPCC 21st century climate projections: A Hawaiian Islands study Oliver Timm, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawai'i at Manoa Henry Diaz, NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado Thomas Giambelluca Dept. Geography, University of Hawai'i at Manoa

IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: (more than 20 climate models took part) precipitation change: likely to decrease but for Hawaii, no robust signals Models show a drier climate Models results inconsistentMost models: drier climate Most models: wetter climate No significant change Models show a wetter climate Introduction:

H H Synoptic (=weather-related) studies: Months with high/low precipitation in Hilo site of Big Island [sea level pressure, wet season (Nov-Apr) between ] High PreciptationLow Preciptation

Rainfall controlled by large-scale circulation Trade Wind Regime Kona Wind Regime

Model #1Model #28Model #30 Model #38Model #40Model #53 IPPC 21 st century diagnostics: Changes in the mean sea level pressure, wet season

Projected rainfall changes Dry season May-October Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

Projected rainfall changes Wet season November-April Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

Projected rainfall changes Dry season May-October Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

Projected rainfall changes Wet season November-April Rainfall change in percent of present rainfall amount

Feedback: Privacy Policy Feedback
Do Not Sell My Personal Information
About project: SlidePlayer Terms of Service

© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc. All rights reserved.