Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division

River Forecast Centers

Routed Q MAP MAPX MAPXFMAP R/RO RRS UH Total Q Local Q RatingAdjust FORECAST H, Q ObservedForecast Forecast Process Precipitation Stages Observed

Challenge for Operational Hydrologists: Numerous groups looking at climate change effects and hydrologic forecasters are being asked for long-term forecasts Developing experimental products

Forecast and associated uncertainty

Forecast Evolution FROM: Short-term, deterministic, water-level forecast TO: Long-term, probabilistic, water- level and flow forecast (ESP)

Daily Operations

Short-term Forecast

ESP

Traces: Historical and Conditional

Probability of Exceedance

Communications and Dissemination of Information Wide use of Internet and GIS capabilities have a revolutionary impact on products and forecast services

Additional information for forecasters

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION  Existing conditions Soil moisture Drought monitor Average daily stream flow Past rainfall Reservoir considerations Meteorological outlook –short and long term.  Hydrologic Outlook

Using GFS Ensemble Members

Water Resources Outlook Individual Locations: 30-day 60-day 90-day Streamflows: 30-days 60-days 90-days

Inundation Mapping

Diversity of users… o Emergency Managers o Agricultural Users o General Public o Water Managers Outreach and Education

Integrated Water Resources PrecipitationTemperatureSea-LevelWater levels Variables Models Water QualityRiver Flows Water QualityMeteorologicalHydrologicalOcean Multi-Agency Effort CHPS