Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures Summary of HC 434: Physics and Politics of Global Climate Change

Our basic Expectation Long wavelength absorption properties of our atmosphere increase the surface temperature- Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by CO2

Ice Core data  Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the relation between temperature and CO2  But time resolution is insufficient to truly show if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature change

Hockey Stick Problems  Role of urbanization may not be adequately account for  Average temperature of the Earth may not be a physically meaningful quantity.  Reliability of multi-century record is questionable  Two D representation is most convincing

Methane Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 Potential role of methane is larger than CO2 GWP = 21 GWP = 21 Scales with population growth Scales with population growth Released from permafrost Released from permafrost Released from hydrate deposits Released from hydrate deposits Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands returning from prolonged drought

Competition among anthropogenic forces

Feedbacks are huge uncertainty

Solubility of CO2 is decreasing; Ocean sink now less than before

Ocean PH Rising

Oceans no longer scale with increasing emissions

Future Scenarios

Really, Three Choices BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently  react to disasters as they come BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know how to do anything differently  react to disasters as they come A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in time A1T: Alternative energy technology and fuels will come in time B1: We do what Cronon suggests  understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly B1: We do what Cronon suggests  understand that wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly

Carbon Trading Emission space is fixed  bid or contract on emissions Emission space is fixed  bid or contract on emissions Effective trading requires many sources of generation Effective trading requires many sources of generation What process determines size of emission space? What process determines size of emission space? What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap? What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions cap?

Carbon Market In principle is very large, but how oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it? In principle is very large, but how oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it? Note that the CDM is supposed to encourage China to switch from Coal to Natural Gas to lower its share of the carbon market. This is not happening to date

Carbon, Capture and Storage Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS? Without a real market, what’s the incentive for CCS? CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested. CCS technologies are not mature and need to be tested. Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stablization CCS the most politically sensible pathway to stablization

Stabilization and Wedges 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year 1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year This is a global effort This is a global effort Again, real carbon market could help provide various incentives Again, real carbon market could help provide various incentives And remember, global carbon emissions are now increasing annually And remember, global carbon emissions are now increasing annually

Gaining a Wedge Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000 Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25% Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials

IPCC Scenarios Once again, three real choices Once again, three real choices Remain Market Driven Remain Market Driven Hope that technological leaps occur Hope that technological leaps occur Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness that is needed to reduce personal consumption. Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth) 3.5 Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth) 3.5 Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal? Increasing global inequity should no longer be tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal? Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greed Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greed

Resource Depletion Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000 Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting around 2000 The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history ! The world is currently in the most unsustainable epoch in history !

We Are At Peak Oil!!

Global Carbon Intensity is Increasing

Sustainability, My Ass

Markets need an ethical dimension

Waveform of Fuckedness

Raisins for Everyone

Along with Malaria

And we Policy Wank our way along  " The United States is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to “ Whoops 

Which box do we want to be in?

What to Do? Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt Drive less; Period. Period. Period. Act according to Cronon’s imperative: Wilderness is Everywhere Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic modeling of climate change

20 Million College Students Have inherited this world

Your Choice Matrix: Give up or Not: