Something about climate models Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles)

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Presentation transcript:

Something about climate models Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles)

Outline zVery brief primer: Global climate change zClimate models zSocioeconomic scenarios zProjections for the Northwest

Carbon dioxide: up 32%

Global average temperature degrees Celsius

The earth is warming -- abruptly

A whole bunch of climate models

Fluid on a sphere - spherical basis functions

1 BMRC 2 CCC 3 CCSR 4 CSIRO 5 ECHAM3 6 ECHAM4 7 GFDL 8 HadCM2 9 IAP 10 MRI 11 CERFACS 12 PCM 13 GISS 14 HadCM3 15 LMD 16 CSM

Natural Climate InfluenceHuman Climate Influence All Climate Influences

Outline zVery brief primer: Global climate change zClimate models zSocioeconomic scenarios zProjections for the Northwest

IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (CO 2 only) W/m 2

IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (GHGs + aerosols) W/m 2

21 st century temperature change IPCC (

Temperature change, minus

A range of climate change scenarios Estimated climate change from 20 th c. to 2040s using 8 climate model scenarios.

Conclusions zClimate models are useful for large-scale future climate changes, with proper caveats zProjections for the Northwest: 0.5°C/decade

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