GUTS, Fact I, Pictures and Tables Supplemental material to LACEA presentation

Description Using Maddison’s data 1870 to For each country, choose a start year (same for all countries) then for each country choose the pre-depression year such that the growth from start year to that year gives the lowest prediction error in Units are chosen so that all countries have the same scale for the y axis

1890 as start year for forecast Country Level in 2003Overall Acceleratio nYear Prediction error (in perce nt) United S %1.88%2.04%0.16% % Norway %1.48%2.59%1.12% % Australi %1.28%2.18%0.90% % Canada %2.96%1.52%-1.44% % Denmark %1.93%1.91%-0.02% % Switzerl %1.40%0.81%-0.59% % France %1.31%1.68%0.37% % Sweden %1.67%1.48%-0.19% % Netherla %0.86%2.02%1.16% % United K %0.94%2.23%1.30% % Austria %1.11%2.03%0.93% % Belgium %0.80%1.86%1.06% % Finland %1.71%1.77%0.06% % Italy %2.36%1.79%-0.58% % Germany %1.32%1.43%0.12% % New Zeal %1.74%1.25%-0.48% % Median1.89%1.44%1.82%0.14%3.89% Std Deviation0.33%0.57%0.43%