Evaluation Research Appropriate for any study of planned or actual social intervention. Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Costs and Benefits.
Advertisements

Competition and the Market
Evaluation Research Appropriate for any study of planned or actual social intervention. Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced.
Engineering Economics Analysis Dr. Nabeel Yousef
Problem Identification Policy Formation Policy Analysis Policy Choice Policy Legitimation Policy Implementation Policy Evaluation Policy Formulation, etc.
Investment Decision-making. Content Investment Issues with investment appraisal Investment appraisal techniques: –Payback –Average Rate of Return (ARR)
CHAPTER 12, evaluation research
 PE – Acquire foundational knowledge of marketing information management to understand its nature & scope  PI – Explain the need for sport/event marketing.
WHY DO SOME FIRMS SUCCEED? Why do some firms succeed and others fail? Possible explanations include- Luck. How does this help us understand decision-making?
The United States Federal Reserve By Dr. Paul Lockard Professor Black Hawk College.
Irish Evaluation Network David Doyle, Department of Finance.
 Homework #2 due Thursday  Exam #1 on Thursday  Writing Assignment due Oct. 27th.
10 © 2004 Prentice Hall Business PublishingPrinciples of Economics, 7/eKarl Case, Ray Fair Input Demand: The Capital Market and the Investment Decision.
STAGES OF THE POLICY PROCESS
Personal Finance Benchmark Demonstrate an understand that personal spending, saving, and credit decisions have significant implications for the.
PPA 691 – Policy Analysis Lecture 7a-8a. Benefit-Cost Analysis.
Cost-Benefit Analysis Emphasizing the importance of opportunity costs in achieving public benefits and the principle that benefits must be considered relative.
Evaluation Research COMT 502. topics Evaluation research –Process of determining whether intervention has its intended result.
Policy Evaluation Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced the intended result. Results are not always well received. Probably the.
Chapter 11: Cost-Benefit Analysis Econ 330: Public Finance Dr
Research Paper 1. Hand in hard copy by 1pm on Wed. 2. copy of paper to 3. Submit copy to Turn It In (see Research Paper.
 Homework #8 due Next Thursday  Group Outline due Nov. 11 (next Thurs.)
Policy Evaluation “..changing a policy does not guarantee improved performance.” Kraft (2007)
Types of Evaluation.
Cost-Benefit Analysis I PAI 723 Economics for Public Decisions 11/19/
PAI786: Urban Policy Class 2: Evaluating Social Programs.
Financial performance measures and transfer pricing
Economic Systems SSEF4 The student will compare and contrast different economic systems and explain how they answer the three basic economic questions.
C. Bordoy UWC Maastricht Market Failure Evaluation of policies to correct externalities.
Econ 231: Natural Resources and Environmental Economics SCHOOL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS.
Sources of Government Revenue Chapter 9. Economic Impact of Taxes Resource Allocation –Higher taxes = lower supply Increases the price of the product.
Introduction to. Sep. 4, 1997 r Engineering economy relates or applies many concepts from economics, mathematics, finance, accounting, statistics, and.
Project Planning and Capital Budgeting
Normative Criteria for Decision Making Applying the Concepts
Economic Valuation and Protected Areas. Venetia Hargreaves-Allen Imperial College London Conservation Strategy Fund.
Input Demand: The Capital Market and the Investment Decision.
Chapter 14 Jones, Investments: Analysis and Management
© 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Principles of Economics 9e by Case, Fair and Oster 21 PART IV CONCEPTS AND PROBLEMS IN MACROECONOMICS.
1 ECGD4214 Systems Engineering & Economy. 2 Lecture 1 Part 1 Introduction to Engineering Economics.
Measuring Efficiency CRJS 4466EA. Introduction It is very important to understand the effectiveness of a program, as we have discovered in all earlier.
Market Research and Testing The Key To Business Success Revised June 2010.
1 Chapter 1 The Economic Approach. 2 Overview Basic terms and definitions Basic terms and definitions Eight guideposts to economic thinking Eight guideposts.
Policy Evaluation Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced the intended result. Results are not always well received. Probably the.
10.1 Input Demand: The Capital Market and the Investment Decision Capital are those goods produced by the economic system that are used as inputs to produce.
Environmental Economics Class 4. Valuing the Environment: Methods Methodologies available for quantifying benefits and costs. Valuation techniques available.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 3 Valuing the Environment: Methods.
12/10/15.  It is a Cross Life Cycle Activity (CLCA) that may be performed at any stage ◦ In fact, some part of it (e.g. risk analysis and management)
Feasibility Study.
Chapter 1 Introduction.
DWU #1 – 2/5 “Economics is the study of how individuals use money to consume, create, and distribute goods. “ -Explain how the choices we make in our daily.
1 5. WHAT ARE THE KEY BENEFIT/COST MEASUREMENT METHODS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE & ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES? SPRING 2002 Larry D. Sanders Dept. of Ag Economics.
What is this course about?
Information Management and Market Research. Marketing Research Links…. Consumer, Customer, and Public Marketer through information Marketing Research:
Practice- Based Evaluation Research Week 4 Day 2 DIE 4564 Research Methods.
Nonmarket Values Property, ideas and experiences can have “value” even if not exchanged in a market.
Economics 101. Economics  Is a Science that examines how goods and services are produced, sold, and used.  It involves how people, governments and businesses.
EVALUATION RESEARCH To know if Social programs, training programs, medical treatments, or other interventions work, we have to evaluate the outcomes systematically.
PowerPoint Presentations for Principles of Macroeconomics Sixth Canadian Edition by Mankiw/Kneebone/McKenzie Adapted for the Sixth Canadian Edition by.
The Federal Reserve System. Prior to 1913, hundreds of national banks in the U.S. could print as much paper money as they wanted They could lend a lot.
Chapter 1 Overview of a Financial Plan. Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.1-2 Chapter Objectives Explain how you benefit from.
Investment Decision-making Learning Outcomes To be able to perform investment appraisal calculations (E) To be able to analyse the investment appraisal.
Introduction to Economics What do you think of when you think of economics?
Economic Valuation of Coastal Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean Lee G. Anderson George R. Parsons University of Delaware.
Chapter 4 Measurement PowerPoint Presentation by Matthew Tilling ©2012 John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd.
F581 Economics. Demand & Supply Question  Impact depends upon the extent of the shift.  If demand shifts, the impact will depend on elasticity of supply.
DEMAND FORECASTING & MARKET SEGMENTATION. Why demand forecasting?  Planning and scheduling production  Acquiring inputs  Making provision for finances.
High-Speed Trains and cost- benefit analysis Steinar Strøm, University of Turin
Marketing Foundations What is Marketing? What is the goal of Marketing?
Chapter 12 Evaluation Research.
Presentation transcript:

Evaluation Research Appropriate for any study of planned or actual social intervention. Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced the intended result. Results are not always well received. Probably the most difficult type of research to do well

Steps in Evaluation Research 1. Specifying Goals/Success* Ambiguous goals – Vietnam/Iraq war Conflicting goals – Who Killed the Electric Care 2. Identifying Unintended Consequences 3. Identifying Who Benefits/Who Suffers 4. Developing Methods and Measures of Evaluation *Evaluability Assessment

Types of Measurement in Evaluation Research Outcome (dependent variable) Contextual conditions - aspects of the context of an experiment that might affect the experiment. –Examples: the economy, inflation, job growth, etc.

Types of Measurement in Evaluation Research Experimental Stimulus (interventions) –Examples: Job training program English immersion program Tax incentive program Minnesota unemployment benefit experiment Population - demographic variables as well as variables defining the population. Process variables/measures

Types of Evaluation Needs Evaluability Assessment Process Impact Analysis (summative evaluation) Efficiency Analysis –Cost-benefit Analysis –Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Evaluation Research Designs Experimental designs –Difference of Means Tests Quasi-experimental designs –Time-series design –Nonequivalent control groups –Correlational design Qualitative evaluations –Focus groups, interviews

Ethical Issues Social interventions being evaluated may raise ethical issues. –Identification of drug users, sex offenders –Deciding who gets treatment and who doesn’t

1. Who Evaluates? Elites: Government Agencies, Public Universities, Think Tanks Interest Groups: AAA, ACLU, AMA, Business groups, etc. 2. Evaluation and Bureaucratic Oversight (at least) Two reasons for evaluation: Are the policy solutions working Are the policy solutions really being implemented

STAGES OF THE POLICY PROCESS Problem Identification Policy Formation Policy Analysis Policy Choice Policy Legitimation Policy Implementation Policy Evaluation Policy Formulation, etc.

Why Results Are Ignored Too Complicated: Implications may not be presented in a way that nonresearchers can understand. Results can sometimes be counter-intuitive = Results sometimes contradict deeply held beliefs. Vested interest in a program. Who evaluates government policies? Answer: the government.

Cost-Benefit Analysis 6 important stages in cost-benefit analysis

1. Problem and Objective Identification: Goals and Values 2. Identification of Potential Solutions 3. Data Collection and Analysis

4. Estimation of Costs and Benefits –Monetization –Human v. Monetary Costs and Benefits –Intangibles –Discounted Value (money now v. money later) –Risk Assessment

5. Decision Criteria –Democratic: fair, politically acceptable –Benefits outweigh costs –Competitive –Scientific –Pareto Principle –Kaldor-Hicks

How do we estimate costs & benefits? Identify relevant impacts –Geographic targets –Persons and Preferences Future generations Monetizing Impacts –Valuing Inputs Taking into account opportunity costs

Valuing Outcomes –Willingness to pay –Benefits equal the net revenue generated plus any social surplus –Social surplus depends on efficiencies of the market –Government Day Care: direct benefit of those in program, indirect benefit of shifting supply schedule to the right. –Secondary markets need to be considered Stocking lake with game fish example Sales of bait and equipment go up, but golfing goes down

Estimating the demand for nonmarket goods –Hedonic Price Models Public safety; quality schools increase housing value, but how do we put a price on a specific public good? Statistical techniques; control variables –Opinion Surveys Ask people how much the value a good Difficult to describe goods accurately Hypotheticals not really forcing respondent to make an economic choice –Activity Surveys Survey respondents on their behavior Regional park example: examine travel, time, distance costs to estimate value.

Discounting for Time & Risk The concept of Present Value –Most of us would be unwilling to loan someone $1000 today for a promise of repayment for $1000 next month. Why? –Formula: (B t -C t )/(1+d) t –How do we calculate d? In an efficient market the market interest rate is an appropriate estimate –Example, a city want to know if buying larger trash trucks would save money. They estimate cost of larger fleet to be $500,000, but would save $100,000 a year in fuel, wages, benefits, maintenance. –Inflation is 4% and current interest rate for city is.10 –Will sell trucks in 5 th year because of a new plant

City Trash Truck Example

Expected Value adds another level of complexity. –The value of improving the levies in New Orleans depends on the probability of a hurricane and the expected damage –Need a Risk Assessment: Past occurrences, past damage, estimate probabilities –Example: 2 major hurricanes per 100 year. Probability of a major flood every 20 years =.33 ( ). Cost of flood= $25 million. What if no flood happens. –(.33)($25 million) + (.67)(-$5million) = $4.9 million

Applying the cost-benefit analysis: Is it appropriate to talk in terms of cost/benefit when dealing with all policies? What about child abuse policy? How do we handle the meaning or definition of child abuse and weigh in the rights of parents and maintain due process? Cost-Effectiveness analysis is more appropriate in this case

Some problems are not easily applied to economic models, market incentives, or cost/benefit analysis. Very few firms take on the problems of housing, education, and medically caring for the old, abating drug abuse, or dealing with crime.

Fairness is often a major goal/value when we are trying to solve a social problem and fairness can conflict with goals of efficiency or cost/benefit analysis. Protection of due process creates a social surplus which is hard to monetize.

Although “Cost/Benefit Analysis” sounds objective it is often applied very subjectively and strategically The process is likely to be affected by: –The values and perceptions of the researcher or funding agency –Local stadiums: how to value product, social capital; cannibalization of tourism, local consumption; spill-over effects