Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES &

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Heliospheric Computations Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/Space Environment Center Solar MURI Team Meeting, Berkeley CA, December.

Advertisements

Global Properties of Heliospheric Disturbances Observed by Interplanetary Scintillation M. Tokumaru, M. Kojima, K. Fujiki, and M. Yamashita (Solar-Terrestrial.

ICMEs and Magnetic Clouds Session Summary Charlie Farrugia and Lan Jian.

Reviewing the Summer School Solar Labs Nicholas Gross.

1 Diagnostics of Solar Wind Processes Using the Total Perpendicular Pressure Lan Jian, C. T. Russell, and J. T. Gosling How does the magnetic structure.

Heliospheric MHD Models (for the LWS Community) LWS Workshop, Boulder, CO, March 23-26, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil 1,2 and Vic Pizzo 2 1 University of Colorado/CIRES,

A General Cone Model Approach to Heliospheric CMEs and SEP Modeling Magnetogram-based quiet corona and solar wind model The SEPs are modeled as a passive.

1 SDO/HMI Products From Vector Magnetograms Yang Liu – Stanford University

Center for Space Environment Modeling T. H. Zurbuchen, on behalf of W. Manchester, J. Kota, I. Roussev, T. H. Zurbuchen, N.

Synoptic maps and applications Yan Li Space Sciences Laboratory University of California, Berkeley, CA HMI team meeting, Jan 27, 2005, Stanford.

CME-driven Shocks in White Light Observations SOHO/LASCO C3 – CME May 5 th, 1999 CME-driven Shock We demonstrate that CME-driven shocks: (1) can be detected.

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Tucson MURI SEP Workshop March 2003 Janet Luhmann and the Solar CISM Modeling Team Solar and Interplanetary Modeling.

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Relationship Between Magnetic Clouds and Earth-Directed CMEs: Space Weather Research in Stanford Solar Group Xuepu Zhao The Second International Space.

1 WSA Model and Forecasts Nick Arge Space Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory.

C. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Event. Ambient Solar Wind Models SAIC 3-D MHD steady state coronal model based on photospheric field maps CU/CIRES-NOAA/SEC.

CISM solar wind metrics M.J. Owens and the CISM Validation and Metrics Team Boston University, Boston MA Abstract. The Center for Space-Weather Modeling.

When will disruptive CMEs impact Earth? Coronagraph observations alone aren’t enough to make the forecast for the most geoeffective halo CMEs. In 2002,

February 26, 2007 KIPAC Workshop on Magnetism Modeling/Inferring Coronal And Heliospheric Field From Photospheric Magnetic Field Yang Liu – Stanford University.

Identifying Interplanetary Shock Parameters in Heliospheric MHD Simulation Results S. A. Ledvina 1, D. Odstrcil 2 and J. G. Luhmann 1 1.Space Sciences.

Ambient Solar Wind Simulation of ambient solar wind driven by modified daily-updated WSA model:  Latitudinal distribution of the outflow velocity at 21.5.

Center for Space Environment Modeling W. Manchester 1, I. Roussev, I.V. Sokolov 1, 1 University of Michigan AGU Berkeley March.

C. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Event. May 12, 1997 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Event CU/CIRES, NOAA/SEC, SAIC, Stanford Tatranska Lomnica, Slovakia,

Coronal and Heliospheric Modeling of the May 12, 1997 MURI Event MURI Project Review, NASA/GSFC, MD, August 5-6, 2003 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES.

The “cone model” was originally developed by Zhao et al. ~10 (?) years ago in order to interpret the times of arrival of ICME ejecta following SOHO LASCO.

MHD Modeling of the Large Scale Solar Corona & Progress Toward Coupling with the Heliospheric Model.

The First Space-Weather Numerical Forecasting Model & Reconstruction of Halo CMEs Xuepu Zhao NAOC Oct.

NADIR – Focus Area V: Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008 David FalconerUniversity of Alabama &

Luhmann1 An NSF Science and Technology Center led by Boston University, involving solar partners at SAIC, U of Colorado, BU, HAO, Stanford, NRL, AFRL,

CISM Advisory Council Meeting 4 March 2003 Janet Luhmann and the Solar CISM Modeling Team Solar and Interplanetary Modeling.

Predictions of Solar Wind Speed and IMF Polarity Using Near-Real-Time Solar Magnetic Field Updates C. “Nick” Arge University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SEC.

RT Modelling of CMEs Using WSA- ENLIL Cone Model

Thomas Zurbuchen University of Michigan The Structure and Sources of the Solar Wind during the Solar Cycle.

Numerical simulations are used to explore the interaction between solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the structured, ambient global solar wind flow.

Proxies of the Entire Surface Distribution of the Photospheric Magnetic Field Xuepu Zhao NAOC, Oct. 18, 2011.

Evolution of the 2012 July 12 CME from the Sun to the Earth: Data- Constrained Three-Dimensional MHD Simulations F. Shen 1, C. Shen 2, J. Zhang 3, P. Hess.

A Presentation to the SHINE ’02 Workshop by J.G. Luhmann (August 19, 2002) CME initiation: A zoo not an animal (Images from the on-line CDAW CME catalogue.

Comparison of the 3D MHD Solar Wind Model Results with ACE Data 2007 SHINE Student Day Whistler, B. C., Canada C. O. Lee*, J. G. Luhmann, D. Odstrcil,

The Solar Wind.

AFRL/CISM Collaborations

Global Simulation of Interaction of the Solar Wind with the Earth's Magnetosphere and Ionosphere Tatsuki Ogino Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory.

Small-scale transients in the slow solar wind during solar activity minimum K.E.J. Huttunen 1,2, J.G. Luhmann 1, J.T. Gosling 3, Y. Li 1, D. Larson 1,

Validation of the SWMF Coupled Model for Solar Corona – Inner Heliosphere – CME With the Observations of the May 12, 1997 Event Ofer Cohen(1), Igor V.

Lessons for STEREO - learned from Helios Presented at the STEREO/Solar B Workshop, Rainer Schwenn, MPS Lindau The Helios.

Radial Evolution of Major Solar Wind Structures Lan K. Jian Thanks to: C.T. Russell, J.G. Luhmann, R.M. Skoug Dept. of Earth and Space Sciences Institute.

CME Propagation CSI 769 / ASTR 769 Lect. 11, April 10 Spring 2008.

Modeling 3-D Solar Wind Structure Lecture 13. Why is a Heliospheric Model Needed? Space weather forecasts require us to know the solar wind that is interacting.

Introduction to Space Weather Jie Zhang CSI 662 / PHYS 660 Fall, 2009 Copyright © The Heliosphere: Solar Wind Oct. 08, 2009.

Heliospheric Simulations of the SHINE Campaign Events SHINE Workshop, Big Sky, MT, June 27 – July 2, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil 1,2 1 University of Colorado/CIRES,

State of NOAA-SEC/CIRES STEREO Heliospheric Models STEREO SWG Meeting, NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO, March 22, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES.

1 Pruning of Ensemble CME modeling using Interplanetary Scintillation and Heliospheric Imager Observations A. Taktakishvili, M. L. Mays, L. Rastaetter,

IPS tomography IPS-MHD tomography. Since Hewish et al. reported the discovery of the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) phenomena in 1964, the IPS method.

Manuela Temmer Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria Tutorial: Coronal holes and space weather consequences.

Detecting, forecasting and modeling of the 2002/04/17 halo CME Heliophysics Summer School 1.

New tools to relate imagery with in-situ and modeling data and their application to space-weather forecasting Alexis P. Rouillard 1,2 D. Odstrcil 3, B.Lavraud.

An Introduction to Observing Coronal Mass Ejections

ICME in the Solar Wind from STEL IPS Observations

Xuepu Zhao Oct. 19, 2011 The Base of the Heliosphere: The Outer (Inner) Boundary Conditions of Coronal (Heliospheric) models.

Introduction to Space Weather Interplanetary Transients

Predicting the Probability of Geospace Events Based on Observations of Solar Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy Dusan Odstrcil1,2 and David Falconer3,4.

D. Odstrcil1,2, V.J. Pizzo2, C.N. Arge3, B.V.Jackson4, P.P. Hick4

Solar Wind Transients and SEPs

Heliosphere - Lectures 5-7

Corona Mass Ejection (CME) Solar Energetic Particle Events

Lecture 5 The Formation and Evolution of CIRS

Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA

Introduction to Space Weather

The Second International Space Weather Symposium

A Presentation to the SHINE ’02 Workshop by J.G. Luhmann

Presentation transcript:

Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/Space Environment Center

Collaborators  Nick Arge – AFRL, Hanscom, MA  Chris Hood – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO  Rob Markel – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO  Leslie Mayer – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO  Vic Pizzo – NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO  Pete Riley – SAIC, San Diego, CA  Marek Vandas – Astronomical Institute, Prague, Czech Republic  Xuepu Zhao – Stanford University, Standford, CA

Ambient Solar Wind Models SAIC 3-D MHD steady state coronal model based on photospheric field maps CU/CIRES-NOAA/SEC 3-D solar wind model based on potential and current-sheet source surface empirical models [ SAIC maps – Pete Riley ][ WSA maps – Nick Arge ]

CME Cone Model [ Zhao et al., 2001 ] Best fitting for May 12, 1997 halo CME latitude: N3.0 longitude: W1.0 angular width: 50 deg velocity:650 km/s at 24 R s (14:15 UT) acceleration: 18.5 m/s 2

Boundary Conditions Ambient Solar Wind + Plasma Cloud

Latitudinal Distortion of ICME Shape ICME propagates into bi-modal solar wind

Evolution of Density Structure ICME propagates into the enhanced density of a streamer belt flow

Synthetic White-Light Imaging

Interplanetary Disturbances

Evolution of Parameters at Earth

May 12, 1997 – Interplanetary Shock Shock propagates in a fast stream and merges with its leading edge Distribution of parameters in equatorial planeEvolution of velocity on Sun-Earth line 0.2 AU 0.4 AU 0.6 AU 0.8 AU 1.0 AU

Fast-Stream Position Ambient state before the CME launch Disturbed state during the CME launch Ambient state after the CME launch Case A1Case A3 [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ]

Effect of Fast-Stream Position [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ] Case A1Case A3 Earth : Interaction region followed by shock and CME (not observed) Earth : Shock and CME (observed but 3-day shift is too large)

Streamer-Belt Disruption?

Fast-Stream Evolution Ambient state before the CME launch Disturbed state during the CME launch Ambient state after the CME launch Case A2Case B2 [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ]

Effect of Fast-Stream Evolution [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ] Case A2Case B2 Earth : Interaction region followed by shock and CME (not observed) Earth : Shock and CME (observed but shock front is radial)

Fast-Stream Evolution Ambient state before the CME launch Disturbed state during the CME launch Ambient state after the CME launch Case A2Case B2 [ WSA maps -- Nick Arge ]

Effect of Fast-Stream Evolution [ WSA maps – Nick Arge ] Case A2Case B2 Earth : Interaction region followed by shock and CME (not observed) Earth : Shock and CME (observed but shock front is radial)

Daily-Updated Synoptic Maps [ WSA maps – Nick Arge ] Evolving velocity structure at 21.5 Rs due to changes in photospheric field

Magnetic Flux Rope [ 3D force-free model – Marek Vandas ] Toroidal structure emerges into computational domain