Dale A. Cox, Anne Wein, and Keith Porter Sept. 30, 2009 NSF RESIN.

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Presentation transcript:

Dale A. Cox, Anne Wein, and Keith Porter Sept. 30, 2009 NSF RESIN

Fire / Debris Flow 2007 and Station Fire Post Fire Coordination Earthquake / Tsunami ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario and Tsunami Scenario Community Interface, Implementation, Tools and Training, Great Southern California ShakeOut Winter Storm ARkStorm Scenario Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project

Earth Science The Storm Floods, Coastal Erosion, Landslides, Environmental Engineering Structures Infra- structure Lifelines Flood Management Casualties Social Sciences Emergency response Social Impacts Economic Impacts POLICY Building a Winter Storm Scenario Forecasting

The ARkStorm Team Atmospherics: Marty Ralph, NOAA Research/ESRL/PSD Atmospherics: Mike Dettinger, USGS Scripps Floods: Bill Croyle, DWR Flood Operations Center Floods: Justin Ferris, USGS California Water Science Center Landslides: Chris Wills, California Geological Survey Landslides: Jon Stock, USGS Earth Surfaces Processes Team Coastal: Patrick Barnard, USGS Coastal Marine Geology Coastal: Dan Hooover, USGS Coastal Marine Geology Physical Damages: Keith Porter, University of Colorado Environmental: Geoff Plumlee, USGS Minerals Program Environmental: Charles Alpers, USGS California Water Science Center Emergency Response: Mitch Miller, CalEMA Policy: Ken Topping, California State Polytechnic, San Luis Obispo Economics: Anne Wein, USGS Western Geographic Team Economics: Adam Rose, University of Southern California

The ShakeOut Scenario Text

Road closures over time and % average trip time increase 3 days 21% 12 days 17% days 12% days 8%

San Pedro Port Operation Cannot Separate Regional Goods Port has 1 week Storage Ships wait Few divert Months to clear the back log Cranes use power off the grid

Commuting Total commuters out of PS: commuters to unincorporated within Riverside county Total commuters into PS: commuters from unincorporated Source: SCAG commute data based on 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package 9290 live and work in Palm Springs Majority commute to and from Coachella Valley and Riverside Commuters to and from Kern and San Diego counties ignored

Electric power – revised estimates

Utility Service Outage and Restoration High Impact County Telecom: up to 4 days, but congestion and delays Power: up to 1-4 months, Gas: up to 2 months, Water: up to 6 months Power,Water Telecommunications Water,Power,Gas,Transportation % customers with service

Exposure: % employment located in MMI9+ EDD th quarter data, Ben Sherrouse & David Hester (USGS) Exposure Analysis

ShakeOut Economic Costs and Impacts Damage to Structures and Contents ($112.7b) Fire is biggest cause Business Interruption ($96.2b) Water is biggest shock Additional Costs Relocation ($0.1b) Traffic Delay ($4.3b)

Disaster Recovery Phases (restoration, temporary, permanent) Tasks, subtasks, and interdependencies Time (pressure to return to normalcy vs. betterment)

Housing and Social Recovery region SEVERE RESIDENTIAL DAMAGE

Time line of ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario Recovery

ShakeOut Engagement of Stakeholders: Did they listen, think, act?

CAT 4 is > 40 cm (~16 inches) in 3 days Category 4

Jan Precipitation

Jan 25, 1969 Monthly

Jan (doubled Jan. 25)

Feb Precipitation

Sum Feb and Jan. 1969

Economic Activity Time Projected activity Economics of a Natural Disaster ‘Disaster’ (a few yrs.) ‘Catastrophe’ (decades) Stabilized activity Impacted economic activity Cumulative Losses/costs $s Physical damage replacement Emergency Response Recovery Business interruption MITIGATION EMERGENCY RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS RESILIENCE

RESULTS Zones show estimated locations of severely damaged bridges (roadway closures ≈ 5-7 months) Roadways crossing the fault will be severely damaged (roadway closures ≈ 2 months or more) Landslide and liquefaction damage to pavement Indio Palm Springs San Bernadino Zone 3 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 4 Zone 5 Riverside Corona San Juan Capistrano Palmdale Baldwin Park Long Beach San Andreas Fault Bridge Damage Zones