Goals for today Appreciate interdisciplinary perspectives. Introduce three metaphors: the bus heading towards the cliff, the tragedy of the commons, and.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Today’s Topics The Tragedy of the Commons Lifeboat Ethics
Advertisements

Our durable planet 2001 AS UE Reading.
The Environmental Debate The Environment and Politics 1. Since the 1970s, there has been a debate over the state of the environment and the role of government.
Environmental Science A Global Perspective Understanding our Environment Section 1.1.
Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability
CW. Evaluating Environmental Issues. Date.
11. Markets for Capital and Natural Resources Financial markets Natural Resource markets Financial markets Natural Resource markets.
Goals of today’s lecture Introduce Selfishness Week! Understand the “tragedy of the commons” and its application to environmental issues (and other issues).
Chapter 1 Ten Principles of Economics Outline of Topics T1
Chapter 1 Economic Models © 2004 Thomson Learning/South-Western.
© 2010 Pearson Education Canada. The 1920s were years of unprecedented prosperity. Then, in October 1929, the stock market crashed. Overnight, stock.
Goals of today’s lecture Understand the “tragedy of the commons” and its application to environmental issues (and other issues). Look at different approaches.
Goals for today Appreciate interdisciplinary perspectives. Introduce a third metaphor (the bus heading towards the cliff) to join the tragedy of the commons.
Ch 1 Environmental Problems, Their Causes and Sustainability.
Introductions BIOL1040 Environmental Science.
IB GEOGRAPHY HL GILLETT OLIVIA & ANAIS 3/22/12 Julian Simon.
Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability Chapter 1 – Part 1 Tragedy of the Commons.
AND SOLUTIONS! Environmental Issues. The environment is all connected! (p.87) Environmental issues fall into three general categories: 1. Human population.
PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS
Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability
Religion and the Environment Revision
Science and the Environment Chapter 1. Vocabulary Use your books to define the following Key Terms – Environmental science – Ecology – Agriculture – Natural.
Gabriel Söderberg, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University.
Studying the State of Our Earth
Welcome to Sustainability Today is Tuesday, April 8, Please take out your:  journal or binder,  folder, and  reading book. Turn off your phone,
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Ecological Sustainability: what can models tell us? CSCI 1210 Fall 2003 Note: please don’t forget the online student evaluations!
Trends in U.S Economic Growth Growth in the U.S. Economy  From 1908 to 2008, annual growth in real GDP per person in the United States averaged 2%. 
Introduction to Economics D.W. Hedrick Fall 2003.
Data Source: Owen, Videras and Wu (2008) First, if you had to choose, which of the following would be closest to your views? a. Government should let ordinary.
12 INFLATION, JOBS, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE © 2014 Pearson Addison-Wesley After studying this chapter, you will be able to:  Explain how demand-pull.
David Suzuki The Greatest Canadian Ever.. David Suzuki is perhaps most famous as an environmental activist – working to protect and preserve our planet.
Economics, Policy, and the FutureSection 1 Section 1: Economics and International Cooperation Preview Classroom Catalyst Objectives International Development.
Economics, Policy,and the FutureSection 1 Section 1: Economics and International Cooperation Preview Bellringer Objectives International Development and.
Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability Chapter 1.
Economics of the Industrial Revolution. Problems of Industrial Revolution  Time to look for solutions! Some believed the market would fix the problems.
The Iron Law of Wages, Malthusian Belts, and A [very] Modest Proposal.
Ten Principles of Economics 1. Economy – “oikonomos” (Greek) –“One who manages a household” Households, Firms and Society make many decisions –What to.
Keep on the Sunny Side: An Examination of the Values of the Simon-Ehrlich Bet Global Foundations Emelia C. Enquist.
Industrial Revolution Philosophers New economic ideas.
Introduction The world has a cancer, and that cancer is Man ( Gregg, Science, 1955)
Environmental Sciences The study of natural processes in the environment and how humans can affect them.
INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION GEOGRAPHY SEPTEMBER 22, 2014.
Blog Responses For some times, i do not know where or how I'm supposed to turn some work in. For example, i had no idea how to submit my grandparent.
Price as a measure of scarcity The central result in Exhaustible Resource Economics is that one should extract the coal, oil, or copper so that Hotelling.
What are Ethics? ‘No small matter, but how should we live?’ (Plato ‘The Republic’) If a question includes the word ‘should’ then it may be an ethical one.
Capitalism The history of Money. Page 2 Capitalism reflects the view that people desire to operate relatively free from economic restrictions and control.
Sight Words.
Intermediate Microeconomic Theory Introduction. What is Goal of Microeconomic Theory? The primary goal of this class is to develop a model for understanding.
Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability Chapter 1.
Humans & The Environment. Environmental Science Interdisciplinary science that uses concepts and information from natural sciences and social sciences.
Price Floors and Ceilings We already know that markets tend to move towards equilibrium naturally, but sometimes this can create problems in the real-
 Check the Cone of Shame for your name  Pick up Exit Slips on the back lab table  Answer the following question on your bell ringer paper: › Explain.
The 10 Principles of Economics. Breaking down the 10 Principles: Even though economists might not agree on how the economy will operate best, some things.
Unit 2: People and the Planet Revision lesson 1 of 3 Learning objective To revise TOPIC 2: Consuming resources.
Comment about climate change “It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but.
Goals for today Appreciate interdisciplinary perspectives. Introduce a third metaphor (the bus heading towards the cliff) to join the tragedy of the commons.
Insert picture of lake from 1st page of ch Chapter 1 Studying the State of Our Earth.
Geography 11/22 to 11/25. + GEOGRAPHY GRADE 9 November 22 nd, 2015 DO NOW: List 5 factors affecting climate! (5 MINUTES timed) No TALKING, it will affect.
Understanding Our Environment. What is environmental science? Environment: the conditions that surround an organism or group of organisms Environmental.
Goals for today Appreciate interdisciplinary perspectives. Introduce a third metaphor (the bus heading towards the cliff) to join the tragedy of the commons.
Lecture 4: Terms of Trade
Section 1: Economics and International Cooperation
Environmental Science 101
5.1 Economics and International Cooperation
HW 1 Questions and Answers.
Section 1: Economics and International Cooperation
Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and Sustainability
Presentation transcript:

Goals for today Appreciate interdisciplinary perspectives. Introduce three metaphors: the bus heading towards the cliff, the tragedy of the commons, and the invisible hand. Introduce Selfishness Week and think about selfishness and sustainability. Consider optimism and pessimism.

The author of “Plenty of Gloom” was… 1.An optimist about the fate of the world 2.A pessimist 3.Neither 4.Hard to say, the article was too subtle and nuanced.

Who won the Simon/Ehrlich bet? 1.Simon (the economist / optimist) 2.Ehrlich (the ecologist / pessimist)

Over this century, quality of life for the average person on Earth is going to 1.Increase by a lot 2.Increase by a little 3.Stay about the same 4.Decrease by a little 5.Decrease by a lot

“Individualism and shortsightedness are the greatest problems of the current social system… and the deepest cause of unsustainability.” 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree

“What would a society motivated by individual greed and controlled by a very large number of different agents look like? There would be chaos.” 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree

Economists strongly disagree. Arrow and Hahn (1971): “There is by now a long and fairly imposing line of economists from Adam Smith to the present who have sought to show that a decentralized economy motivated by self-interest and guided by price signals… could be regarded, in a well-defined sense, as superior to a large class of possible alternative[s]…” “What would a society motivated by individual greed and controlled by a very large number of different agents look like? There would be chaos.”

Synonyms: Self-interested, self-centered, self- absorbed, shortsighted (myopic), looking out for #1. Not hating people (being misanthropic) or caring only about money. For this set of lectures we will assume that people are and will always be selfish. Theoretical reason: A world full of angels is always going to turn out heavenly—that’s boring. Practical reason: People are mostly selfish. Welcome to Selfishness Week!

How much time do most people spend thinking pretty much just about themselves? % % % % %

How much time do you spend thinking pretty much just about yourself? % % % % %

Go volunteer for MLK Day. Then come back to Selfishness Week! PS. Enjoy the optimism that follows low expectations!

The pessimists/Malthusians “Nothing could be more misleading to our children than our present affluent society.” --Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, p. xi. “I wouldn’t be shocked to find out that by 2100 most things were destroyed.” --Climate scientist David Rind, from Field Notes from a Catastrophe, p

The optimists/Cornucopians “This is my long-run forecast in brief: The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today's Western living standards.” -- Julian Simon, quoted in Lomborg’s Skeptical Environmentalist, p. vi.

“Human civilization is like a group of people on a bus barreling towards the edge of a cliff… and nobody is driving the bus.” 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree

Some economists on the bus are having a great time, drinking whiskey and telling jokes. Others ask: “Aren’t you worried about going over the cliff?” The reply: “Don’t worry... [punch line here?]” “There’s an invisible hand driving the bus!” Two metaphors that we’ll return to: the invisible hand and the tragedy of the commons. “Human civilization is like a group of people on a bus barreling towards the edge of a cliff… and nobody is driving the bus.”

Optimists vs. pessimists I’m not going to tell you who’s right and who’s wrong, but I’ll give you a hint. The pessimists are wrong. “Nothing could be more misleading to our children than our present affluent society…” --Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (1968) Look at nonrenewable resource consumption. The optimists are wrong too. Look at global warming or the ozone hole.

Are we running out of nonrenewable resources? Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 2 nd ed. (1974): “Given present resource consumption rates and the projected increase in these rates, the great majority of the currently important nonrenewable resources will be extremely costly 100 years from now… The prices of [some resources] have already begun to increase. The price of mercury, for example, has gone up 500 percent in the last 20 years; the price of lead has increased 300 percent in the last 30 years…”

Are we running out of nonrenewable resources? Simon, The Ultimate Resource (1981): “This is a public offer to stake $10,000… on my belief that mineral resources (or food or other commodities) will not rise in price…” Paul Ehrlich decided to “accept Simon’s astonishing offer before other greedy people jump in.” In October 1980, he bet $1000 that the inflation- adjusted price of five metals (chrome, copper, nickel, tin, tungsten) would rise by October 1990.

Source: USGS,

Are we running out of nonrenewable resources? Ehrlich lost the bet, and sent Simon a check for $576.07, noting that “Julian Simon is like the guy who jumps off the Empire State Building and says how great things are going so far as he passes the 10 th floor” (Tierney 1990). “Simon wrote back a thank-you note, adding that he would be willing to raise the wager to as much as $20,000, pinned to any other resources and to any other year in the future.” (Tierney) Ehrlich refused to take this new bet.

Where did Ehrlich go wrong? My theory: He failed to respect the social sciences and their practitioners, who argue that private property rights and market prices often do a good job of aligning private (individual) incentives with social (group) goals. “Well-functioning markets” create private incentives for exploration, for substitution, even for conservation! This is the invisible hand idea.

Selfish individuals often act (“as if led by an invisible hand”) in socially valuable ways. Why will selfish individuals explore to find new sources of natural resources? Why will selfish individuals work hard to find substitutes for natural resources? Why will selfish individuals work hard to conserve natural resources? There is a profit motive if you can save money or make money by conserving, or by saving a resource for later use.

The Nano car (made by Tata Motors of India) Costs just $2,500! No radio, no sun visors, one wiper blade

Optimists vs. pessimists I’m not going to tell you who’s right and who’s wrong, but I’ll give you a hint. The pessimists are wrong. “Nothing could be more misleading to our children than our present affluent society…” --Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (1968) Look at nonrenewable resource consumption. The optimists are wrong too. Look at global warming or the ozone hole.

“Plenty of gloom” said that which environmental problem wasn’t exaggerated? 1.Global warming. 2.DDT and pesticides. 3.CFCs and the ozone hole. 4.Overpopulation. 5.Deforestation.

“The heat is on” says global temperatures are projected to rise by °C… 1.Per month 2.Per year 3.Per decade 4.Per century

“The heat is on” advocates reducing carbon emissions by… 1.Banning coal. 2.Putting a price on carbon. 3.Funding clean energy projects 4.(1) and (2) 5.(1) and (3) 6.(2) and (3)

“The heat is on” says that uncertainty about GHG emissions means we should… 1.Conduct more research: “facts, not theories” 2.Reduce emissions just in case: “insurance policy” 3.Wait and see: “don’t fix what isn’t broken”

Which one of these is obviously nonsense? (Hint: think about last quiz section.) 1.Conduct more research: “facts, not theories” 2.Reduce emissions just in case: “insurance policy” 3.Wait and see: “don’t fix what isn’t broken”

The ozone hole “The ozone layer and its ‘hole’ over Antarctica certainly deserve study. But this is very different than recommending action. The best principle might be: ‘Don't do something. Stand there.’ …[I]t is important that the government not attempt to fix what is not broken.” --Julian L. Simon (1996)

Global warming “[M]y guess is that global warming will simply be another transient concern, barely worthy of consideration ten years from now… [After all,] in the late 1960s and 1970s, the climatological issue of major public concern was still global cooling.” --Julian L. Simon (1996)

Where did Simon go wrong? My theory, part I: He failed to respect the natural sciences and their practitioners. Part II: He forgot that private property rights and market prices do not always do a good job of aligning private (individual) incentives with social (group) goals. We’ll see examples of market failure next time (with the “tragedy of the commons”).

Thinking about overpopulation, climate change, resource consumption, etc. 1.The invisible hand is always driving the bus. 2.The invisible hand is never driving the bus. 3.Sometimes yes, sometimes no.

We need interdisciplinary work, e.g., economics and ecology Prefix “eco” from oikos, “household.” Are a bunch of plants and animals and cycles in an ecosystem all that different from a bunch of humans and natural resources in an economy? Darwin’s theory of evolution was partly inspired by Malthus, an early economist who argued that populations would grow faster than food supply. Game theory (which you will see next quiz section and which you may have seen in the book/movie A Beautiful Mind) has had perhaps its greatest success in applications to evolution.

How much time do most animals spend thinking pretty much just about themselves? % % % % %

We need interdisciplinary work, e.g., economics and ecology Prefix “eco” from oikos, “household.” Are a bunch of plants and animals and cycles in an ecosystem all that different from a bunch of humans and natural resources in an economy? Darwin’s theory of evolution was partly inspired by Malthus, an early economist who argued that populations would grow faster than food supply. Game theory (which you will see in quiz section and which you may have seen in the book/movie A Beautiful Mind) has had perhaps its greatest success in applications to evolution.

The road ahead Thursday: First outside seminar due. Friday: Guest lecture from Marcia Baker (UW atmospheric physicist) on the science of climate change. Monday: MLK Day. Wednesday: Tragedy of the commons (when selfishness leads to disaster) Friday: Invisible hand (when selfishness works out just fine)