Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish.

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Presentation transcript:

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics

IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Why forecast indices? Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon Used to drive models Large data sets available for –Analysis –Model evaluation –Model development

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Outline Some applications using geomagnetic indices Real-time forecasts The Lund Dst model –Model evaluation –Short term dynamics –Long term dynamics –Real-time operation

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Magnetospheric Specification Model - Kp Input: 50 keV el.

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment - Solar wind - Dst Inputs: 10 keV to 5 MeV electrons 10 keV to 1 MeV protons

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 SWRI Input: - Dst Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms KpScale 5G1 6G2 7G3 8 – 9 - G4 9G5

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Input: - Kp

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Kp for GIC forecasts Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, , 2001.

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real-time forecasts IndexURL AE Dst Kp Ap

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Models Indices

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind Solar Wind Monitor

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, Kp at RWC-Sweden

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, Dst at RWC-Sweden

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Matlab Java

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Overall performance of different Dst models

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst tt

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Power spectrum

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Wavelet of Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 y

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Wavelet of predicted Dst 27 d 0.5 y 1 y 1.3 y

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Effect of data gaps

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Future List of updated forecast models –ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!) –Plots, Data, Models –Evaluation Evaluation –RMS error and correlation (overall performance) –Skill scores (comparative overall performance) –Onset times –Long term dynamics –Real time performance

Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Indices Power grid Spacecraft