Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia.

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Presentation transcript:

Topic 6: Climate change and climate models in Colombia

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Climate Change Impacts in Colombia What the IPCC 4th Assessment Report has found: Retreat of glaciers are affecting already compromised water availability for consumption or hydropower generation [TS4.2 & ]. Between a 82% reduction in glaciers, showing a linear withdrawal of the ice of m yearly. Under the current climate trends, glaciers of the country will disappear completely within the next 100 years [Table 13.3] In the future, sea level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes modified by global warming are very likely to have impacts on mangroves [13.4.4]. SLR of 1.0 m would permanent flood 4,900 km2 of low lying coast. About 1.4 million people would be affected, 7,208,299 ha of crops and pasture will be lost [Table 13.7].

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Predictability of weather and climate Trenberth

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 CAM T341- Jim Hack Climate Models as a tool for future projections

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009

What is behind a climate model 3-dimension mathematical Grid Based on physical laws Represented by equations Horizontal Resolution: km

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Future of GCM – Earth System Models Ice Sheet IPCC, 2001

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Auflösung GCM – Earth System Model Global General Circulation Continental large-scale flow Regional local IPCC AR TF IPCC AR IPCC AR TF L. Buja, NCAR, 2007

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 GCMs for impact assessments

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Dynamical Downscaling - RCM km horizontal resolution GCM: Scenarios possible Re-Analysis: ‘perfect boundary conditions‘ GCM Re-Analysis (z.B. ERA40) Regional Climate Model Emissionsszenario km horizontal resolution `time-slice‘ experiments CTRL (e.g ) SCEN (e.g ) Initial and lateral conditions provided by GCM (scenario) or Reanalyses (current climate)

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Statistical Downscaling UC, Santander, Spain

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 IPCC GCM results

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Temperature at 2030 Averages and Extremes IPCC GCM results

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Precipitation 2030 Averages and Extremes IPCC GCM results

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 IPCC GCM web tool

Seminar of the excursion to Colombia – Topic 6 21 October 2009 Group 6: CC and Climate Models in Colombia Which large scale atmospheric circulation pattern influence Colombia’s climate, and how? IPCC GCM analysis (web tool): What past climate trends and future projections for Colombia can be detected? Based on the IPCC GCM analysis: How relate your findings to the impacts found by IPCC for Colombia (first slide)?