Trends in Financing Agriculture Slide Show #9 AGEC 489/690 Spring 2009

Lenders Serving Agriculture  Real Estate Lenders o Farm Credit System o Commercial banks o Life insurance companies o Farm Service Agency o Individuals and others

Lenders Serving Agriculture  Real Estate Lenders o Farm Credit System o Commercial banks o Life insurance companies o Farm Service Agency o Individuals and others  Nonreal Estate Lenders o Farm Credit System o Farm Service Agency o Commercial banks o Individuals and others Detailed coverage in Handouts #7, #8 and #9

Year-end Farm Debt Outstanding in Agriculture

Farm Real Estate Debt Shares

Farm Non-Real Estate Debt Shares

Debt not secured by real estate mortgage Debt not secured by real estate mortgage Debt secured by real estate mortgage Debt secured by real estate mortgage

Farm Financial Crisis

Asian Flu

Farm financial crisis

Importance of Government Payments as a Stabilizer Farm financial crisis

Problem in 2009? USDA projects net farm income will fall by 18.1% in 2009

Rising land values thus far have helped support rising farm debt.

Farm Financial Crisis

Impact of rising land values Problem with this ratio. Only one-third of farmers owe total term debt

Let’s Look at U.S. Agriculture

Farm financial crisis Ethanol boom Ethanol boom

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Recent Monthly Crop Price Trends Profit margins have narrowed considerably and are at further risk if crude oil prices increase.

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Recent Monthly Crop Price Trends Price/cost ratios for major crops are much different than they were at this time last year, particularly for wheat.

Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics, USDA Crop Price Declines From Peak 2008 Levels

Recently Monthly Livestock Price Trends Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Poultry is the only commodity experiencing a positive price/cost ratio. Of particular concern is the free-fall in milk prices.

Livestock Price Declines From Peak 2008 Levels Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics, USDA

Macroeconomic Linkages to Ag in 2008: (good for Ag!) Weak dollar (good for Ag!) (bad for Ag!) High crude prices (bad for Ag!) (good for Ag!) Low inflation (good for Ag!) (good for Ag!) Low interest rates (good for Ag!) (good for Ag!) Low unemployment rate (good for Ag!) (relatively minor positive impact on Ag!) High consumer income (relatively minor positive impact on Ag!)

A Potential 2009 Macro Scenario for Ag: Weakened client nations(bad for Ag!) Weakened client nations (bad for Ag!) Modest rise in oil prices(bad for Ag except biofuel feedstock!) Modest rise in oil prices (bad for Ag except biofuel feedstock!) Inflation(good for Ag!) Inflation in check (good for Ag!) Interest rates low(good for Ag!) Interest rates low (good for Ag!) High unemployment rate(bad for Ag!) High unemployment rate (bad for Ag!) Falling consumer income(relatively minor negative effect on Ag!) Falling consumer income (relatively minor negative effect on Ag!)

2009 Farm Price and Income Prospects unlikely to gain much traction in 2009 Biofuel feedstock like corn is an exception if crude oil prices rise. 1. Crop prices down from 2008 levels and unlikely to gain much traction in 2009 unless speculative demand for commodities increases. Biofuel feedstock like corn is an exception if crude oil prices rise. declined but can rise if crude prices rise 2. Input costs for fuel, fertilizer and other selected inputs have declined but can rise if crude prices rise.

2009 Farm Price and Income Prospects 3. Lower feed prices livestock producers stressed 3. Lower feed prices still leave livestock producers stressed. 4. Lower 18.1% decline 4. Lower net farm income in USDA projects 18.1% decline. 5. Lower crop land appreciation declines 5. Lower crop land appreciation, with likely declines particularly outside the Corn Belt and Northern Plains regions. 6. Increased debt repayment stress 6. Increased debt repayment stress expected, particularly for highly leveraged livestock borrowers.

Source: Economic Research Service value is USDA forecast. Components of Debt Burden Ratio Problem of fixity in debt outstanding during volatile periods of net farm income. Farm financial crisis

Source: National Agricultural Statistics, USDA. Land Values Can Fall… Farm financial crisis Biofuels boom

Source: National Agricultural Statistics, USDA. Recent Cash Rents Trend Biofuels boom Farm financial crisis

2009 Updated Central Illinois Corn Budget Yield 182 bushels Assumed sales price $4.00 per bu. Other revenue $25 payment Gross revenue$753 per acre Fertilizer$122 per acre Seed $62 per acre Other costs $80 per acre Total direct costs$264 per acre Power costs $76 per acre Overhead $52 per acre Total non-land costs$392 per acre Operator & land return$361 per acre Yield 182 bushels Assumed sales price $4.00 per bu. Other revenue $25 payment Gross revenue$753 per acre Fertilizer$122 per acre Seed $62 per acre Other costs $80 per acre Total direct costs$264 per acre Power costs $76 per acre Overhead $52 per acre Total non-land costs$392 per acre Operator & land return$361 per acre Returns to land must cover principal payments on outstanding term loans as well as cash rent or its equivalent and family living expenses. Source: Farmdoc Budgets, University of Illinois Extension Service.

2009 Updated Central Illinois Corn Budget Yield 182 bushels Assumed sales price $4.00 per bu. Other revenue $25 payment Gross revenue$753 per acre Fertilizer$122 per acre Seed $62 per acre Other costs $80 per acre Total direct costs$264 per acre Power costs $76 per acre Overhead $52 per acre Total non-land costs$392 per acre Operator & land return$361 per acre Yield 182 bushels Assumed sales price $4.00 per bu. Other revenue $25 payment Gross revenue$753 per acre Fertilizer$122 per acre Seed $62 per acre Other costs $80 per acre Total direct costs$264 per acre Power costs $76 per acre Overhead $52 per acre Total non-land costs$392 per acre Operator & land return$361 per acre Returns to land must cover principal payments on outstanding term loans as well as cash rent or its equivalent and family living expenses. Source: Farmdoc Budgets, University of Illinois Extension Service. Those tenants who had already locked in $350 need cash rents would need $3.90 corn to break even $3.90 corn to break even. If the cost of fertilizer, seed and fuel had not fallen in the last few months, corn had to be prices would had to be $4.65 $4.65 to break even.

2009 Updated Central Illinois Corn Budget Yield 182 bushels Assumed sales price $4.00 per bu. Other revenue $25 payment Gross revenue$753 per acre Fertilizer$122 per acre Seed $62 per acre Other costs $80 per acre Total direct costs$264 per acre Power costs $76 per acre Overhead $52 per acre Total non-land costs$392 per acre Operator & land return$361 per acre Yield 182 bushels Assumed sales price $4.00 per bu. Other revenue $25 payment Gross revenue$753 per acre Fertilizer$122 per acre Seed $62 per acre Other costs $80 per acre Total direct costs$264 per acre Power costs $76 per acre Overhead $52 per acre Total non-land costs$392 per acre Operator & land return$361 per acre Returns to land must cover principal payments on outstanding term loans as well as cash rent or its equivalent and family living expenses. Source: Farmdoc Budgets, University of Illinois Extension Service. Those tenants who had already locked in $350 need cash rents would need $3.90 corn to break even $3.90 corn to break even. If the cost of fertilizer, seed and fuel had not fallen in the last few months, corn had to be prices would had to be $4.65 $4.65 to break even. Breakeven here does not account for principal payments on outstanding term loans or family living expenses.

A Look at Farm Lending Picture in 2009 In ag, total farm term debt is owed by a relatively small number of borrowers. This counters the USDA’s rosy debt statements. In ag, total farm term debt is owed by a relatively small number of borrowers. This counters the USDA’s rosy debt statements. Concern over loans based heavily on off- farm repayment capacity. Concern over loans based heavily on off- farm repayment capacity. Debt repayment capacity for livestock borrowers will be stressed. Debt repayment capacity for livestock borrowers will be stressed. Will land values soften? YES Smaller gains/declines in Corn Belt and Northern Plains regions; larger declines are likely in other regions. Will land values soften? YES. Smaller gains/declines in Corn Belt and Northern Plains regions; larger declines are likely in other regions.

Recent Survey Results 2,300 agricultural professionals (including lenders) were recently surveyed. will experience financial stress in the next 3 years 84% believe farmers will experience financial stress in the next 3 years. lender responses 54% high26%very high When lender responses were sorted out, 54% felt the chance of financial stress is high and 26% felt this would be very high. cost of inputsvolatile prices top 2 reasons loss of off- farm income interesting The cost of inputs and volatile prices are the top 2 reasons for financial stress given by all respondents, followed loss of off- farm income. The lowest ranked reason was declining land values….interesting.

Recent Survey Results 56% slightly17% substantial Many farmers responded saying they faced stricter requirements (e.g., more documentation). 56% said requirements changed slightly while 17% reported substantial increases. financial management skills Farmers responding assessed their financial management skills as follows: 8% well equipped  only 8% of farmers participating in this survey felt they were well equipped with financial management skills.  74%moderately equipped  74% said they were moderately equipped.  18% poorly equipped!  18% said they were poorly equipped!

#7: How will the recession affect off-farm incomes and farm family unemployment? Regional variations? source of internal finance Off-farm income is an important source of internal finance for some farm operators and a basis for making rural home loans. Potential high stress states: Potential high stress states: – January 2009 unemployment rates in states like California (10.1%), Michigan (11.6%), Indiana (9.2%), South Carolina (10.4%) and Oregon (9.9%) suggest areas of potential stress from loss in off-farm income. Potential low stress states: (see map) Potential low stress states: January 2009 unemployment rates in states like Iowa (4.8%), Kansas (5.8%), Utah (4.6%), Nebraska (4.3%), and South Dakota (4.4%) suggest less risk of loss in off- farm income. (see map) no doubt lower than current rates The magnitude of these rates are no doubt lower than current rates given the jump from 7.6% to 8.1% and future increases in months to come.

10.1% 9.9% 9.4% 11.6% 10.4% 9.7% 8.6% State Level Picture of Unemployment Rates 8.7% 8.6% 8.8% 7.9% 9.2% 7.8% 7.0% 8.0% 4.8% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 7.6% 6.9% 6.4% 5.1% 7.8% 5.6% 6.6% 5.8% 5.0% 5.1% 7.0% 8.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

#9: General condition of farmers in Texas? Any problems? What risk management tools are they using? Should they be using? worst since 1918 The drought affecting Texas is the worst since First two months of 2009 driest start of any year since records were kept over a century ago. substantial increase in FSA loan applications Weakened economic condition is evidenced by the substantial increase in FSA loan applications. cattle industry Hitting the cattle industry hard, with stories of ranchers selling off portions of breeding herds. state of emergency declaration Governor Perry asked for state of emergency declaration for 199 counties. Farm Assist stress testing Farm Assist tool at TAMU used by some. Many should improve understanding of financial statements, pro forma analysis, and benefits from stress testing to determine potential long run risk and returns when making decisions.

Extent of Current Texas Drought I own a farm here that enjoyed three cuttings of coastal hay last year. May only get one this year.

Role of Financing

Importance of off- farm income by type of farming operation

Importance of off-farm income by size of farming operation