DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Bipolar scenario Presentation: China and US intervention: agreement of mutual benefit more than cooperation China: change in the pattern of growth US: more active economic policy EU: paralysed, lack of consensus on shared objectives US and China invest in oil and gas supply at world level

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 China: change in the pattern of growth Higher wages, increased household income and consumption Reduced profit and investment in % GDP Increased of spending on government services Reduced pressure on environment: energy saving, investment in non carbone energy Moderate appreciation of the yuan

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Outlook for China Real GDP growth from 7.5% in 2010 to 6.5% in 2020 By 2030 income per capita ($2005pp) around 28000$, close to the current average level in Europe Consumer spending still well below

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Outlook for China Progressive reduce of current surplus Moderate real appreciation of the yuan

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Outlook for China Energy saving policies Reduction of the growth of the domestic fossil fuel supply 30% of energy needs met by imports in 2030 compared with 10% now

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 USA:more active policy Growth sustained by government spending and private investment Improvement of around 1% p.a. in GDP growth Slow recovery in employment rates due to working-age population growth

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Outlook for USA Growth of government income Government debt increases but the ratio of debt to GDP declines to 64%

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Outlook for USA

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Europe paralysed Marginal impact on Europe from policies of China and US Government debt slightly lower in 2030, but still high in South Europe (150% GDP) and East Europe and UK (100% GDP) External position still deteriorating down to -100% GDP in South Europe, East Europe and UK

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Energy policy US and China invest in oil and gas supplies in CIS, West Asia, North Africa, Central America and US Rising Chinese and Asian imports of energy Stable energy imports in other regions Stabilisation of real price of oil

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Rest of the world Japan and other East Asian countries hardly affected India and South America adversly affected by US policies with less industrial location in South No benefit for other countries in Africa and South Asia Gains of energy exporting countries from investment in oil and gas supply compensated by effects of lower oil prices

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Economic policy issues US policy Downward pressure on $ Relax of restrictive budgetary policy Recovery as a solution to public debt problem China Success in implementation of a new growth regime (higher wages, pension reforms) Yuan under control: limited revaluation but decreasing Chinese surplus Emergence of Chinese big business RD race between US and China

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Economic policy issues Monetary and financial regulation No big monetary arrangement $ remains the internaational reference currency Chinese caution in matter of financial liberalisation Pressures on euro and euro zone Trade policy Agreement of mutual benefit beween China and US with relative marginalisation of the WTO US and China negociate reciprocical opening of their markets, reinforcing their dominant positions EU paralysed with defensive position; European liberalisation policies often unilateral without getting reciprocity, especially in services and agriculture

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Economic policy issues Agriculture Maintaining US agricultural active policy Food independance policy in China EU with defensive policy; dismantling of the CAP Raw materials US and China selfish for natural ressources

DG Research and Innovation, CDMA building, 21 rue Champ de Mars, Brussels AUGUR AUGUR stakeholder’s workshop, November 2011 Energy and climate issues No significant progress towards more energy efficiency Oil intensive pathways and vulnerability to peak oil USA and China do not worry about CO2 emissions No climate policy ambitioned outside EU