PROVIDING MORE USEFUL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION TO OUR CUSTOMERS Mary-Beth Schreck NWS Wichita, KS.

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Presentation transcript:

PROVIDING MORE USEFUL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION TO OUR CUSTOMERS Mary-Beth Schreck NWS Wichita, KS

Current Information Data we ingest: Greenness (satellite derived) Fuels status Data we disseminate Rangeland Fire Danger Index (RFD) Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning (RFW)

Goals/Objectives Better represent reality temporally and spatially: RFD: County by county critical fuels Uses binned, discontinuous function (empirically) GFDI Express fire danger continuously in GFE temporally and spatially Feed info. directly into HWO Become a surrogate for the RFD? Have as an option for RFW criteria?

Benefits Avoid Greenness Issues “Point and Click” resolution (no discontinuities at county borders) Hourly indices; available for more than 1 st or 2 nd period (3 days worth?) Same output (low to extreme) for fire danger Minimal training required

Grassland Fire Danger Index - GFDI FDI integrates effect on difficulty of suppression of fire due to: Temperature (T ºC) Relative Humidity (RH %) Wind Speed (V km/h) (10 m, 10 min average) Curing (C %)

GFDI Output The Descriptive Fire Danger Rating system for Public Information is: LowFDI of 0-2 ModerateFDI of 3-7 HighFDI of 8-20 Very HighFDI of ExtremeFDI of 50+

Australian Formula Simple mathematically 4 main parameters: T, wind, RH, curing Not a discontinuous/binned function Relies on a curing term Does not rely on snow/rain/clouds We will need to obtain this data Outreach Fire departments Emergency Managers Farmers? Customers such as Tallgrass Prairie Preserve Input can be entered into a web form and imported into GFE automatically

How do we attract observers? 6 locations minimum per CWA Who KNOWN reliable observers/enthusiastic customers NWS Employee Coop Observers Fire Departments Emergency Managers Farmers Spotters Training via curing guide (being developed) Data into GFE via web form? Outreach opportunities Local/county fire department meetings KEMA/NEMA meetings Other customers

Curing Guide

Potential Output GFE Graphics HWO RFD? A more representative value for the RFD product A change that is transparent to the customer Text by county? (If deemed useful based on demand)

GFE Output (70% Curing) In Central KS: Winds ~ 30G40KT 70% curing RH = 40% Temp. ~ degrees F Yields High criteria In Southeast KS: Winds ~ 17 kts 70% curing RH = 50% Temp degrees F Yields Moderate criteria

GFE Output (85% Curing) In Central KS: Winds ~ 30G40KT 85% curing RH = 40% Temp. ~ degrees F Yields Very High criteria In Southeast KS: Winds ~ 17 kts 85% curing RH = 50% Temp degrees F Yields High criteria

GFE Output (100% Curing) In Central KS: Winds ~ 30G40KT 100% curing RH = 40% Temp. ~ degrees F Yields Extreme criteria In Southeast KS: Winds ~ 17 kts 100% curing RH = 50% Temp degrees F Yields High criteria