Corruption: Persson Tabellini and Trebbi JEEA (2003): The first and stricter measure, called PINDP, is designed to reflect the free-rider effect only.

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Presentation transcript:

Corruption: Persson Tabellini and Trebbi JEEA (2003): The first and stricter measure, called PINDP, is designed to reflect the free-rider effect only. It is thus defined as the proportion of legislators in the lower house who are elected on an individual ballot by plurality rule. PINDP=1-list/seats All individuals elected via party lists are lumped together and coded as 0, irrespective of whether the list is open or closed, since they are all affected by the free-rider problem. Thus, this variable takes a value of 1 in the UK (where all legislators are elected by individual votes under plurality rule), a value of approximately 0.5 in Germany (where only about half the legislators are elected in that way), and a value of 0 in Poland (where all legislators are elected via party lists, even though voters' preferences determine the which candidates on the list get elected). Its expected effect on corruption is negative.

The second measure, called PINDO, is designed to reflect the effect of closed lists only. It is defined as the proportion of legislators in the lower house elected individually or on open lists. The legislators elected in closed lists are instead coded as 0. PINDO= 1-clist*list/seats This different definition of individual accountability discriminates between ballots where voters choose among individuals and those where they do not, irrespective of whether there is a free-rider problem. By this measure, the UK is still coded as 1 and Germany as 0.5, but now Poland is coded as 1. The variables PINDP and PINDO take on different values in thirteen countries: those using a semi-proportional STV-system, plus those where voters must vote for individual politicians in open-list or panachage systems. For this variable as well, the expected effect on corruption is negative, according to H2.1 T o test the barriers-to-entry effect, we measure the average magnitude of voting districts (MAGN), defined as the number of districts (primary as well as secondary or tertiary, if applicable) divided by the number of seats in the lower house. Thus, MAGN is the inverse of district magnitude as commonly defined by political scientists; it ranges between 0 and 1, taking a value of 1 in a UK-style system with single-member districts and a value close to 0 in an Israel-style system with a single national district. Its expected effect on corruption is positive, according to HI.

We noted in Section 3 that the pair-wise cross-country correlation between each measure of the electoral rule and corruption is not significantly different from zero (recall Table 1). In this section, we instead document strong and significant effects of the electoral variables on corruption. It might be conjectured that the difference emanates from our controlling for a variety of economic and social determinants of corruption (in the cross-sectional estimation) or exploiting the time variation (in the panel estimation). But this conjecture is false, or at best only half-true. Consider first the cross-country regressions. If we retain the basic specification of Table2 (including the dummy variables for continental location and colonial origin) and add the electoral variables one by one in isolation, none of them is ever significantly different from zero, in consistency with the insignificant binary correlations. A strong and statistically significant effect of the electoral variables is only detected if we condition simultaneously on two features of the electoral system (district magnitude and either the ballot structure indicators or the binary indicator for the electoral formula). Similar results are obtained if we enter the electoral indicators one by one in the panel analysis of Table 4, although here a drop in statistical significance does not always occur, or is less stark than in the cross-country regressions. PTT (03):981-82

And then, still (footnotes 6 and 12): […] The hybrid system in Chile formally has party lists in two- member districts. But the seats are won based on individual votes (open list), and the system has plurality in the sense that a first-ranked list that collects more than twice the number of votes as a second-ranked list wins both the seats in a district. We treat also this case as plurality rule on individual ballots and set PINDP = 1. There is one important fragility in the estimates reported in Table 2, however. It concerns Chile, a country with low corruption (and a highly negative estimated residual) and a peculiar electoral system. […] Chile's electoral system is hard to classify. Unfortunately, this single observation and our classification matter for our results. Dropping Chile from the sample, or reclassifying its electoral system so that MAJ= 0 (rather than 1) and PINDP = 0 (rather than 1), the estimated effects of the electoral variables on corruption become less precisely estimated and lose significance. Chile is not the only outlier observation, however, and dropping Chile together with other influential observations does not significantly affect the results reported in Table 2.