ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Migration from European Accession States to the UK and Essex Lord Hanningfield Leader, Essex County Council

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Thaxted Hedingham Castle DedhamHarwich Essex County

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Presentation Overview 1.Essex in a nutshell 2.Context & timeline 3.Facts and trends about Eastern European migration into Essex and the UK 4.Myth Busting 5.Issues – Data & Statistics / Economic impact / Social Cohesion / Impact on local services

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Essex County Council Population: 1.3m Ethnicity: 90.7% White British (England 84.2%); Other White 2.5%, Asian 1%, (other ethnic groups less than 1% each) 1,300 square miles £2bn gross budget 37,000 staff (incl. teachers) 12 District/Borough Councils Over 270 Parish Councils Unemployment rate 4.3% (2006/07) - In a Nutshell

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Essex County Council – in a nutshell Budget Overview- excl. schools

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Essex – in a nutshell We are young and old, rural and urban, agricultural and industrial, coastal and commuter belt, mostly prosperous but in parts deprived, part- London, part-East Anglia and part-rest of the world. Home to Britain's oldest recorded town Colchester (Roman Camulodunum) Over 70% of the county’s land is rural 350 miles of coastline The first ever radio broadcast was made from Chelmsford

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 May accession states join EU (A8 + Cyprus +Malta) May 2004UK one of only three EU countries to grant A8 workers unrestricted right to work (required to register: Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) Jan 2007 Bulgaria and Romania join EU (required to apply for work authorisation document) June 2008Over 800,000 WRS registrations since 2004 Over 35,000 certificates (BG and RO) since 07 Nov 2008Points-based immigration system comes into force (not affecting EU migrants) 2009WRS to be cancelled 2014Work authorisation scheme for BG and RO to be cancelled EU Accession State Migration Context & Timeline

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Eastern European Migrants in the UK and Essex March 2004 March 2006 June 2008 UK 341,500562,600805,000 Essex 3,1706,3509,420 Rounded cumulative total of worker registration from EU accession states under the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) Registrations under the WRS

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 National Insurance Number (NINo) Registrations

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Trend – Percentage of Population Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) Numbers as Percentage of Population 2004 to 2008

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Foreign-born Percentage of Population in Selected Countries 30-60% BME* in half of London Boroughs * Black or Minority Ethnic Groups BME 15%

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Trend - Population Growth Most populous nation in EU by 2060: UK with 77million

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Trend - WRS Registrations UK Essex ?

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Myth Busting? Numbers of Eastern EU migrants are extremely high They will stay forever and cause even more rapid population growth Eastern European migrants are only here to claim benefits YES Multiple times higher than Govt. expected NO Significantly lower percentage of UK population than migrants from outside EU NO ‘Return migration’ is significant for EU migrants in general but we do not know how many are going back how fast NO Employment rate UK-born 75%; Employment rate A8-born over 80%; share of A8-born claiming state benefits 2.4% (after 12months employment)

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Myth Busting? –Social cohesion is threatened / UK-born population is increasingly concerned –Councils have increased expenses because of Eastern European migrants YES Share of people rising who consider immigration and race relations most important issue in UK NO Not as such, usually, unless high number receives Council Tax benefits or additional services are deployed, e.g. translation, liaison officers etc YES Because inaccurate statistics and projections for migration mean insufficient central government grants including specific grants for schools.

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Issues – Data & Statistics - General recognition that migration statistics are inadequate - Last census (2001) under-estimated UK population by nearly 1 million; poor counts of migrants and students - No data on short-term migrants - Emigration of UK-born population only estimated - A8 migration gauged through: Worker Registration Scheme (WRS), National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations, Labour Force Surveys, Passenger Surveys etc; Problems: WRS does not cover self-employed; WRS/BME, NINo overlap and do not produce coherent stats; neither WRS nor NINo require de-registration

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Labour market: Employment rate UK (total) rising (slightly); 50-80% of new jobs created over last 10 years taken up by immigrants. Unemployment rate UK relatively low over last 10 years (July %) but rising. Youth unemployment (18-24) already high (about 11.5% since August 2005). No significant correlation found between immigration, (un)employment levels or unfilled vacancies. No strong correlation found between wages and immigration. Income from self-employed labour not researched much. GDP: app. 3% attributable to new migrants Issues – Economic Impact

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November will all this change during economic downturn or recession? Or will emerging economies (e.g. Poland) continue growing while established Western markets go into recession? Therefore, will A8 migrants return to their countries of origin in droves? Issues – Economic Impact

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Issues – Social Cohesion No issue in Essex; bigger impact on rural areas in parts of Norfolk and Lincolnshire and large metropolitan areas Perceived or real tensions arising from competition over (public) resources (e.g. childcare, social housing, public transport) Community Safety around issues such as overcrowded housing, drink driving Little knowledge about rights & responsibilities, e.g. traffic code, tenants’ rights Low English language skills on arrival Tension evoked or increased by emotive media coverage

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Issues – Impact on local services Inadequate statistics, inadequate estimates/projections = inadequate population-based grants from central government Central government benefits from increased income tax and VAT but does not hand down share to local government Migration contributes significantly to unwanted population growth in the South of England Demand for (affordable) housing (and central government housing plans for South/East England) already too high, contradicting councils’ conservation/green belt policies Social housing – other influences, e.g. increasing single households and ageing population have more significant impact than migration

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Issues – Impact on local services Street homeless in London – 18% from Eastern Europe but only 0.7% of statutorily homeless (eligible for social housing) Extra demand through migration for schooling and special support for pupils whose first language is not English hard to predict and costly Local government can play a role in restoring or sustaining community cohesion by: Myth busting to reverse an apparent trend in tabloid media Providing (free) access to English language training Pro-actively providing information on rights & responsibilities (welcome packs, tenancy rights, traffic code etc)...and many other measures

ABC Lord Hanningfield, November 2008 Thank You For Listening Questions & Discussion Lord Hanningfield Leader, Essex County Council