Status of the RCM climate change simulations

ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM

Max 3-day precip (mm) MPIM RCM and ECA Data

Evaluation of RCM simulations with HOAPS satellite data Biases of all ERA40 and GCM driven RCM simulations over sea investigated – see poster 27 Liquid + ice water, water vapour, precipitation, net longwave radiation, sensible and latent heat flux. All results soon on RT3 webpage

From RT3: ● Validated set of RCMs ● Weights for RCMs ● Suggestions how to use the weights for climate change runs

RT2B1 GCM-RCM Matrix Global model Regional model METO-HCMPIMETIPSLCNRMNERSCCGCM3 Total number METO-HC *** MPIMET *2 CNRM DMI * ETH KNMI ICTP SMHI * * (50km) UCLM C4I * * (A2) 2 GKSS** *1 Met.No** *1 CHMI** *1 OURANOS** *1 Total ( ) *: non-contractual runs **: affiliated partners without obligations ***: 3 simulations with the perturbed physics METO-HC GCM

InstituteRuns completed resp. expected date Runs transferred to the RCM database resp. expected date METO-HCHC pert. phys. (3 runs): completed MPI-M Forcing:? Transferred End 2008 (latest Aug. 2009) MPI-MMPI-M Forcing: completedTransferred CNRMCompletedTransferred DMICNRM Forcing:?Partly ETHCompletedTransferred KNMICompletedTransferred ICTPCompletedTransferred SMHINERSC Forcing: Completed? UCLMCompletedTransferred Status of obligatory 25km scenario simulations

The RT2B1 Quick-Look Analysis Objectives of the ”Quick look analysis”: To monitor the scenario simulations progress and quality of the RT2B RCM scenario simulations To provide very fast first information on the results of the RCM scenarios The quick look analysis is focusing on trends and variability Variables: 2m Temperature, Precipitation, Evaporation Areas:8 Prudence Regions Yearly and Seasonal means Annual cycle for each decade The „Quick-Look“ Analysis has recently been extended: Separate land and water driving GCM‘s Inclusion of the gridded RT5 observational dataset Plots on the ENSEMBLES RT3 webpage will be updated soon!

MPIM RCM, T and P changes for DJF

MPIM RCM, T and P changes for JJA

JJA mean warming wrt Erich Fischer (2008) 4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs IAC ETH

Daily temperature variability in JJA wrt Erich Fischer (2008) 4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs IAC ETH

JJA diurnal temperature range wrt Erich Fischer (2008) 4 ENSEMBLES RCMs: MPI, ETH, KNMI, C4I 8 PRU RCMs IAC ETH

From RT2B1: Set of transient simulations for SRES A1B scenario for 1950 to 2050 (22), some extended until 2100 (10) Data at DMI data base

In RT2B: From RT2B1 and RT3: matrix with RCM data and RCM weights available (incl suggestion for their use)  Joint pdfs will be calculated for use in RT6 …  Assessment of impacts through eg the calculation of indices

Assessment of changes in climate, extremes and associated sectoral impacts using high resolution regional climate model scenarios for the Eastern Mediterranean Giannakopoulos C. (1), E. Kostopoulou (1), K.Tolika (2), C.Anagnostopoulou (2), P.Maheras (2), K.Tziotziou (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece (2) Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

Method  Within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project several RCMs runs have been produced at a high horizontal resolution (25km).  The control run represents the base period and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions for periods and based on A1B SRES scenario  Aim is to examine climatic changes in both mean (temperature, precipitation) and extremes (number of heat wave days, number of tropical nights, drought length) in order to identify areas that are likely to undergo large amount of climate change

Summer Maximum temperatures, KNMI RCM  In summer, maximum temperatures increase by o Cfor the simulation and by 4-6 o Cfor  Greece and North Africa will have a more intense heating during whereas Turkey will have equally intense heating during both periods

No of tropical nights : Tmin>20 o C KNMI RCM  Tropical nights increase more in costal areas  1-2 more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for  more months with warm nights around the islands and North Africa for

Dry spell length KNMI RCM  for the simulation increases of about 7% (of about 10 days more) are apparent  for the the increase varies between 12% (about 15 days more) in the east part and 25% (about 1 month more) in the west part of the island.