1. Temperature trends in IPCC 20 th century runs v. radiosondes 2. Volcanic signals 3. Effects of volcanic eruptions on trends? Melissa Free John Lanzante.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

160,000 Years Carbon dioxide and global temperature are highly correlated. Temperatures of the past 160,000 years have varied greatly between ice ages.

Advertisements

Volcanoes Large volcanic eruptions with high SO2 content can release SO2 into the stratosphere. This SO2 eventually combined with water vapor to make.

Long-Term Stratospheric Temperature Time Series for SPARC Temperature Trends Assessment Paper Dian Seidel April 2007 Tabard Inn, Washington DC.

Unresolved issues for the observations paper 1.CO 2 effects on SSU channels (details; how does this work for the off-nadir x-channels?) 2. Weighting functions.

Detection and attribution of temperature change in the lower stratosphere Nathan Gillett, Ben Santer.

Reconciling trends from radiosondes and satellites (MSU4 and SSU15x) Data: LKS radiosondes (87 stations), updated to 2004 using IGRA data MSU4 and SSU15x.

Observation issues I Changes in constituents? Strat water vapour, ozone, solar cycle changes in ozone? (CO2??); disentangling solar and volcanic signals.

Imposed ozone calculations Qualitatively same behaviour in all models (which qualitiatively agrees with the observations). Significant quantitative differences.

Simulated and observed geopotential height and temperature changes.

1.Ammann, C. M., Washington, W. M., Buja, L., & Teng, H. (2010). Climate engineering through artificial enhancement of matural forcings: Magnitudes and.

1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Climate change in the Antarctic. Turner et al, Significant warming of the Antarctic Winter Troposphere. Science, vol 311, pp Radiosonde.

YODEN Shigeo Dept. of Geophysics, Kyoto Univ., JAPAN August 4, 2004; SPARC 2004 Victoria ＋ α － β for Colloquium on April 15, Introduction 2.Internal.

Global Warming and Climate Sensitivity Professor Dennis L. Hartmann Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle, Washington.

Is there one Indian Monsoon in IPCC AR4 Coupled Models? Massimo A. Bollasina – AOSC658N, 3 Dec 2007.

Detection of Human Influence on Extreme Precipitation 11 th IMSC, Edinburgh, July 2010 Seung-Ki Min 1, Xuebin Zhang 1, Francis Zwiers 1 & Gabi Hegerl.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends in GFDL model runs SKYHI AM2 --- New model, atmosphere with specified SSTs. CM2 --- New model, coupled ocean (CM

Long-Term Evolution of the Tropical Cold Point Tropopause Simulation Results and Attribution Analysis Thomas Reichler, U. of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA.

Longer-Term Trends Dian Seidel SPARC Temperature Trends Panel Meeting July 2006 Abingdon.

YODEN Shigeo Dept. of Geophysics, Kyoto Univ., JAPAN March 3-4, 2005: SPARC Temperature Trend Meeting at University of Reading 1.Introduction 2.Statistical.

SPARC Temperature Trends Assessment group also Shigeo Yoden, Carl Mears, John Nash Nathan Gillett Jim Miller Philippe Keckhut Dave Thompson Keith Shine.

Stratospheric Temperature Variations and Trends: Recent Radiosonde Results Dian Seidel, Melissa Free NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Silver Spring, MD SPARC.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, NJ Evolution of Stratospheric.

Attribution of Stratospheric Temperature Trends to Forcings A coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) study Richard S. Stolarski NASA GSFC In collaboration.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, NJ Evolution of Stratospheric.

1. How has the climate changed during the recent past? 2. What can we say about current climate change? 3. How do climate models work and what are their.

Why do climates change ? Climate changes over the last millennium.

Influence of the sun variability and other natural and anthropogenic forcings on the climate with a global climate chemistry model Martin Schraner Polyproject.

Dynamical control of ozone transport and chemistry from satellite observations and CCMs Mark Weber 1, Ingo Wohltmann 2, Veronika Eyring 3, Markus Rex 2,

Using GPS data to study the tropical tropopause Bill Randel National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado “You can observe a lot by just watching”

Interactions between volcanic eruptions and El Niño: Studies with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model C. Timmreck, M. Thomas, M. Giorgetta, M. Esch, H.-F.

LUSciD-LLNL UCSD/SIO Scientific Data Project: SIO LLNL SDSC Tim BarnettDoug RotmanReagan Moore David PierceDave BaderLeesa Brieger Dan CayanBen SanterAmit.

Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years Thomas J. Crowley Presentation by Jessica L. Cruz April 26, 2001.

CLIMATE CHANGES DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Gavin A. Schmidt and Drew T. Shindell.

3 May 2007 GIST May Professor John Harries, Professor John Harries, Space and Atmospheric Physics group, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College,

The effects of solar variability on the Earth’s climate Joanna D. Haigh 2010/03/09 Pei-Yu Chueh.

Stratospheric temperature trends from combined SSU, SABER and MLS measurements And comparisons to WACCM Bill Randel, Anne Smith and Cheng-Zhi Zou NCAR.

Fanglin Yang Work Done at Climate Research Group

Volcanic Climate Impacts and ENSO Interaction Georgiy Stenchikov Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ Thomas Delworth.

Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin Stratospheric and tropospheric.

Shigeo Yoden Department of Geophysics Kyoto University Japan ESF-JSPS Frontier Science Conference Series for Young Researchers « Climate Change » Nynäshamn.

Evaluation of climate models, Attribution of climate change IPCC Chpts 7,8 and 12. John F B Mitchell Hadley Centre How well do models simulate present.

Past and Future Changes in Southern Hemisphere Tropospheric Circulation and the Impact of Stratospheric Chemistry-Climate Coupling Collaborators: Steven.

Microphysical simulations of large volcanic eruptions: Pinatubo and Toba Jason M. English National Center for Atmospheric Research (LASP/University of.

Human fingerprints on our changing climate Neil Leary Changing Planet Study Group June 28 – July 1, 2011 Cooling the Liberal Arts Curriculum A NASA-GCCE.

Investigation of Atmospheric Recycling Rate from Observation and Model James Trammell 1, Xun Jiang 1, Liming Li 2, Maochang Liang 3, Jing Zhou 4, and Yuk.

A Statistical Analysis on the Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupled Variability by Using Large Samples obtained from a Mechanistic Circulation Model Yoko NAITO.

Global Change: New Operations and Modeling Challenges Ants Leetmaa Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

CLIVAR/OCB Working Group: Oceanic Carbon Uptake in CMIP5 Models Ocean CO 2 uptake (Gt/yr) (climate change - control) Friedlingstein et al. [2006]

TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Comparison of the SSI data sets using observed and simulated evolution of the middle atmosphere during A.

Radiative Feedback Analysis of CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments ○ M. Yoshimori, A. Abe-Ouchi CCSR, University of Tokyo and T. Yokohata National Institute.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Chris Lucas, Hanh Nguyen, Bertrand Timbal.

Dynamical balances and tropical stratospheric upwelling Bill Randel and Rolando Garcia NCAR Thanks to: Qiang Fu, Andrew Gettelman, Rei Ueyama, Mike Wallace,

RADIOSONDE TEMPERATURE BIAS ESTIMATION USING A VARIATIONAL APPROACH Marco Milan Vienna 19/04/2012.

The dynamical signal in stratospheric temperatures from satellites

Dynamical Impacts of Antarctic Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on the Extratropical Circulation of the Southern Hemisphere Kevin M. Grise David W.J. Thompson.

Climatic implications of changes in O 3 Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University David Rind Goddard Institute for Space Studies How well.

The ENSO Signal in Stratospheric Temperatures from Radiosonde Observations Melissa Free NOAA Air Resources Lab Silver Spring 1.

The impact of solar variability and Quasibiennial Oscillation on climate simulations Fabrizio Sassi (ESSL/CGD) with: Dan Marsh and Rolando Garcia (ESSL/ACD),

Dynamical control of ozone transport and chemistry from satellite observations and coupled chemistry climate models Mark Weber 1, Sandip Dhomse 1, Ingo.

Impact of OMI data on assimilated ozone Kris Wargan, I. Stajner, M. Sienkiewicz, S. Pawson, L. Froidevaux, N. Livesey, and P. K. Bhartia   Data and approach.

IPCC’s Phony Evidence for AGW

SUMMARY AND GOALS • To identify the volcanic response signal in the signal+noise of a set of AOGCM runs (PCM) • To see how well this signal can be reproduced.

Stratospheric temperature simulated by GFDL models

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Jian Lu Collaborators: Clara Deser Tomas Reichler

Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes during the Satellite Era Dian Seidel, Isaac Moradi, Carl Mears, John Nash, Bill Randel, Roger Saunders,

Volcanic Climate Impacts and ENSO Interaction

Comparing the Greenhouse Sensitivities of CCM3 and ECHAM4.5

Climatic implications of changes in O3

Presentation transcript:

1. Temperature trends in IPCC 20 th century runs v. radiosondes 2. Volcanic signals 3. Effects of volcanic eruptions on trends? Melissa Free John Lanzante

6 models from 4 modeling centers: # runs Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LabGFDL2.03 GFDL2.13 Goddard Institute for Space StudiesGISS ER*9 GISS EH*5 Hadley CentreHadGEM1 NCAR PCM4 Simulations starting in 19 th century, all forced with solar, volcanic, ozone, greenhouse gas changes and direct sulfate effects. (Models differ on details and some include other forcings.) * ozone forcing was wrong

K

50 mb T, 20N-20S K

Models subsampled for RATPAC

Subsampled for RATPAC and HADAT- Differences largest in SHX

Quantifying the comparison Correlations between vertical profiles of trends, model v. observations ( mb) Differences between stratospheric mean trends Compare results for adjusted and unadjusted data

Tropical stratosphere— Sonde data agrees with GFDL models for , but is too cool for Differences are larger at 100 mb than above. PCM has different shape than data for extratropics (79-99) Homogeneity adjustments generally improve model- data trend agreement.

RATPAC observations Mean of models Pinatubo zonal mean response QBO and ENSO removed from data, ENSO removed from models. Mean of 24 months after minus mean of 24 months before. K K

Volcanic effect, 30N-30S ENSO and QBO removed

NH Extratropics Volcanic signal

SH Extratropics Volcanic signal, SH extratropics

K/decade (RATPAC)

Effect of eruptions on temperature trends Method based on Santer et al. (2001) 1. Find lowest temperature within 24 months after eruption. 2. Construct volcanic signal assuming linear ramp down to minimum, followed by exponential decay 3. Remove this signal from time series 4. Find difference in trends

Trend = K/dec

Models tend to overestimate stratospheric warming, especially after Pinatubo—especially PCM. Biggest differences are at 100 mb for Pinatubo. Dropping 2 years after eruptions is not an accurate method to estimate effects on trends. Santer method also has large uncertainties. Preliminary results suggest effects of eruptions on stratospheric trends are order 0.15 K/decade or less, small in comparison to the trends (work is still in progress).