By Milly, PCD, DA Dunne, and AV Vecchia

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Presentation transcript:

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate By Milly, PCD, DA Dunne, and AV Vecchia In: Nature vol. 438 (17), pp. 347-351 (2005)

General Question How will climate change impact the water cycle on regional and global scales? -streamflow -precipitation -temperature

Climate and Hydrology Temperature, SVP Precipitation shifts, regional Streamflow=P-ET when averaged over many years for large river basins

Methods, briefly Streamflow volume Climate models Approach: 165 large rivers, globally distributed 28-99 years of streamflow data collection Climate models To predict streamflow from precipitation and temperature changes 14 models aggregated Approach: Compare modeled streamflow to known streamflow Predict future streamflow with most accurate models

Regions of Predicted Streamflow Increase by 10-40%, during 2041-2060 La Plata Basin Eastern equatorial Africa http://upload.wikimedia.org www.coffeeproject.com www.gewex.org/LPB.htm high latitude North America and Eurasia

Regions of Predicted Streamflow Decrease by 10-30%, during 2041-2060 upload.wikimedia.org http://www.greatdreams.com/soeurope.jpg Southern Europe Southwest North America Middle East Southern Africa http://www.travelblog.org/pix/maps/middle-east.jpg http://www.acipco.com

The Skeptics Say… Runoff equates with “sustainable water availability”??? Pollution Groundwater Irrigation Questionable model accuracy Large variability in each model’s predicted streamflow Does aggregating the 14 most-accurate models solve the problem? 28 vs. 99 years of data Low correlation between observations and model output: .34 Streamflow prediction assumptions: Future greenhouse gas emissions Volcanic activity Solar activity Temporal lag in streamflow, due to storage

What’s Missing? Further data collection? Resource management implications? Are the results valid, useful?