Risk Analysis- 1 MIS Practicum Risk Analysis Based on E.M. Bennatan, On Time, Within Budget. John Wiley & Sons, 1995.

Risk Analysis- 2 MIS Practicum Risk Analysis  A project management technique in which potential problems are identified, their probability and severity of impact estimated, and plans devised to address them should they occur.  A problem that has been anticipated and planned for is far easier to solve than one that occurs unexpectedly.

Risk Analysis- 3 MIS Practicum Risk Analysis Procedure  Anticipate problems.  Estimate the probability that the problem will occur.  Estimate the impact of the problem on the project.  Attribute a measure of severity to the problem.  Identify contingency plans for severe-impact problems.

Risk Analysis- 4 MIS Practicum Anticipate Problems  Common SD problems:  Inadequate definition of requirements  Frequent changes (creeping requirements)  Poor estimates  Dependence on external sources  Difficulties in concluding the project  Staff turnover  Inadequate tracking and supervision

Risk Analysis- 5 MIS Practicum Anticipate Problems ….  Review project technical and administrative plans:  Project plan (resources, schedule, task dependencies)  Requirements specification (difficulty in satisfying performance objectives)  Design specification (implementation decisions that may create problems)

Risk Analysis- 6 MIS Practicum Anticipate Problems ….  Compile a list of potential problems, briefly describing each problem and its effect on the project, e.g.,  Staff turnover: Given the tight schedule and dependence on staff expertise, the loss of Developer A or any long-term loss of other personnel will cause the project to slip significantly.

Risk Analysis- 7 MIS Practicum Estimate Probability and Impact  Estimate the probability that the problem will occur, assigning an expectation number between 1 (low) and 10 (high) to each problem.  Estimate the severity of the problem’s impact, assigning a number between 1 (low impact) and 10 (high impact) to each problem.  Multiply the expectation number by the impact number to produce the measure of severity for each problem.

Risk Analysis- 8 MIS Practicum Estimate Probability and Impact….

Risk Analysis- 9 MIS Practicum Identify Contingency Plans  Decide the “cut-off point” in severity ratings (e.g., 15 or 20).  Devise a contingency plan for each high- severity problem.  Assign a “tracker” to track the problem and to alert the project manager when the contingency plan needs to be implemented.

Risk Analysis- 10 MIS Practicum Identify Contingency Plans….

Risk Analysis- 11 MIS Practicum When to Perform Risk Analysis  As part of the Project Plan  As planning for each major development stage:  Requirements Analysis  Design Specification  Implementation  Whenever a “significant event” occurs  Just as planning is an iterative process, so is risk analysis!

Risk Analysis- 12 MIS Practicum Risk Analysis Costs and Benefits  RA is a kind of insurance.  Costs:  Time & effort to perform analysis  Cost of any fall-backs implemented  Benefits:  Minimized cost of problem resolution  Greater probability of successful project completion  Greater “peace of mind”