1 Using the Decision Dashboard (DD) to model the Rincon case CEE100

2 Key to Slides Column 1: Questions Column 2: DD Concepts Introduced Column 3: DD Demonstration Column 4: Use of DD (Col. 1) – what are “we” trying to figure out Column 5: Conclusions reached (findings)

3 Phase 1 - Michael Blumenthal We are going to model decisions made during the beginning of the Rincon project. Michael Blumenthal is considering whether h should take on the project, whether he has the necessary qualities. He also needs to make decision regarding forming a project team. Should Michael Blumenthal take on the project?

4 DD Elements The DD’s AEC Decision Ontology defines 5 element types –Stakeholders –Topics –Criteria –Alternatives –Dashboard

5 DD Stakeholders At this stage we have a single stakeholder: Michael Blumenthal

6 Hierarchy and Selection The DD allows hierarchical representation of elements It also allows representing elements as selected elements and non-selected candidate elements

7 DD Decision Topics Michael B. needs to decide whether he is going to take on the project, or (in other words) if he is to be a co-owner of the project, as opposed to someone else.

8 Criteria What factors does Michael Blumenthal consider when deciding whether or not to proceed with the project? –Does he believe that the project is viable? –Does he expect the project contract to be favorable? –Does he have the experience and reputation to land the contract? –Does he have the financial power and image to land the contract? Can we group these criteria into hierarchy?

9 DD Criteria

10 Topics and Criteria How can we model how each topic relates to each criterion? –For example, how would we model Michael Blumenthal’s experience and reputation?

11 DD Attributes The DD allows the decision modeler to define attributes and attribute values for elements We can specify single attribute values (for Topics)… …or ranges of acceptable values (for criteria)

12 Specifying Topic Attributes We can assign each decision topic with attribute values that give it a rating with respect to each criterion.

13 Acceptable Criteria Values What would be the acceptable rating for a particular criterion? –For example, if Michael Blumenthal’s experience and reputation rating was 4 (on a scale of 1 to 10), would that be acceptable?

14 Specifying Topic Attributes

15 Importance of Criteria Which criteria are most important? How can we assign weights to each criterion to reflect this?

16 Criteria Weights The DD defines a weight for each criterion, to specify its importance The DD also allows the decision modeler to specify weights for Topics and Stakeholders, and also for each stakeholder to specify a preference weight for each criteria. However for simplicity, we won’t consider these.

17 Criterion Weights

18 Dashboard Element The DD’s Dashboard Element allows decision modelers to combine Topics, Criteria and Stakeholders into on unified model

19 Combining all decision elements

20 Evaluation Table All elements under a single Dashboard element are summarized in the Evaluation Table

21 Evaluation Table

22 What might the DD tell us? Is the project viable? Can Michael Blumenthal alone go ahead with the project? What are his shortcomings? Would some else be potentially better than him to take on the project? What qualities should he look for in potential project partners?

23 What does the DD tell us? Michael Blumenthal’s Pros –Belief in project –Considers contract terms favorable Michael Blumenthal’s Cons –Lacks reputation –Lacks financial image He needs to find project partners who will fill the reputation and financial image void

24 Phase 2 – Enter Chin and Hensolt Should Michael Blumenthal select Chin and Hensolt as Structural Engineers, or select some other party? Also, should Michael Blumenthal select Chin and Hensolt as a co-owner, or consider someone else?

25 More DD Topics

26 Choosing Chin What factors does Chin consider when deciding whether or not to join the project? What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing Chin-Henslot?

27 More Criteria

28 Rating Chin and Hensolt How would you rate Chin and Hensolt with respect to the criteria? How would you rate a competing structural engineer on these same criteria?

29 Chin’s Attributes

30 DD Charts The DD supports the automatic generation of a wide range of charts

31 Chart of Chin’s Attributes

32 Reasons behind choosing specific Criteria Why were the chosen criteria so chosen? –Maximize chances of landing the project –Help form a successful team –Satisfy personal goals of team members

33 Alternative Elements An Alternative Element remembers a certain selection of Elements Different Alternatives remember different selections of elements

34 Alternatives groups of Criteria

35 What might the DD tell us? Are Chin and Hensolt’s criteria for joining the project satisfied? To what extent does Chin and Hensolt’s make up for Michael Blumenthal’s shortcomings? How does Chin compare with other potential Structural engineers and Co-owners What qualities should Michael Blumenthal and Chin look for in potential project partners?

36 What does the DD tell us? Chin is satisfied with the contract terms and believes that the project will be viable Chin compares better to other potential structural engineers on all the criteria Chin also makes up for some of Blumenthal’s lack of reputation, but does not really add any financial power to the team. Hence, Blumenthal need to find a financially powerful partner

37 Phase 3 – Enter Tutor-Saliba Should Michael Blumenthal and Chin (and Hensolt) select Tutor-Saliba as Contractors, or select some other party? Also, they select Tutor-Saliba as a co- owner, or consider someone else?

38 More DD Stakeholders

39 More DD Topics

40 Choosing Tutor-Saliba What factors does Tutor-Saliba consider when deciding whether or not to join the project? What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing Tutor-Saliba?

41 Rating Tutor-Saliba How would you rate Tutor-Saliba with respect to the criteria?

42 All Ratings so far…

43 What might the DD tell us? Are Tutor-Saliba’s criteria for joining the project satisfied? What does Tutor-Saliba bring to the project team? How does Tutor-Saliba compare with other potential Contractors and Co-owners Are further project partners needed? What qualities should they have?

44 What does the DD tell us? Tutor-Saliba is satisfied with the contract terms and believes that the project will be viable Tutor-Saliba compares better to other potential structural engineers on all the criteria, but financial image The team still lack financial power. So it probably needs a partner who is strong financially and has a good reputation in that respect

45 Phase 4 – Enter Peter Bolles and Perini Who should Michael Blumenthal, Chin (and Hensolt) and Tutor-Saliba as the architect? Peter Bolles or someone else? Also should they consider selecting a further Co-owner? Why? Would Perini be suitable?

46 More DD Stakeholders

47 More DD Topics

48 Choosing Peter Bolles and Perini What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing Peter Bolles? How can we rate Peter Bolles to reflect this? What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing Perini? How can we rate Perini?

49 Topic Alternatives

50 Final Evaluation Table

51 What-if scenarios The initial project team consisted of Michael Blumenthal, Chin-Henslot, Tutor-Saliba and Peter Bolles. What are the implications of replacing one team member with some other party? –For example, replacing Chin-Henslot with some other Structural Engineer?

52 What does the DD tell us? The “Chin and Tutor” alternative seems to be the best choice for structural engineer and contractor. The team probably should consider a replacement

53 More questions the DD might answer Is Peter Bolles the best choice for an architect? Should the team consider someone else? What will Perini’s role be in the future?

54 What does the DD tell us? Peter Bolles does not seem to be the best choice. He compares poorly to other options on all but one of the criteria Perini is the most dominant partner in terms of Financial power and reputation, and hence is likely to take control of the project team