2008 Nominations And looking ahead to 2012…. Delegate Allocation StateClintonObamaHuckabeeRomneyMcCain AL25272619 AK3106123 AZ312550 AR2782111 CA20316715155.

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Presentation transcript:

2008 Nominations And looking ahead to 2012…

Delegate Allocation StateClintonObamaHuckabeeRomneyMcCain AL AK AZ AR CA Percent of popular vote in state AL42%56%41%18%37% AK25%75%22%44%15% AZ50%43%9%35%47% AR70%26%61%14%20% CA52%43%12%35%42%

Why the chaos? Extreme frontloading gets rid of momentum in the press/polls Extreme frontloading gets rid of momentum in the press/polls Proportional rule encourages second- place finishers (who have the money to compete) Proportional rule encourages second- place finishers (who have the money to compete)

Date Jan wk1 IA, WY Jan wk2 NH, Jan wk3 MI, NV Jan wk4 SC, FL AK, HI Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT LA Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI IA Feb wk3 NH Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Why the chaos? Extreme frontloading gets rid of momentum in the press/polls Extreme frontloading gets rid of momentum in the press/polls Proportional rule encourages second- place finishers (who have the money to compete) Proportional rule encourages second- place finishers (who have the money to compete) Other thoughts? What went wrong or right in this nomination process? Other thoughts? What went wrong or right in this nomination process?

Pros and Cons of a National Primary Fairness Fairness Simplicity Simplicity Role of the media Role of the media Electoral rule choices Electoral rule choices Role of money Role of money Implementation Implementation

Is that the only way to reform the nomination system?

Republicans’ problem Selected a nominee who is not the favorite of the base Selected a nominee who is not the favorite of the base Winner take all rule in early states: Florida, Maine, Colorado, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York Winner take all rule in early states: Florida, Maine, Colorado, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York

Potential solution?

Democrats’ Problem Historically divisive nominating contest Historically divisive nominating contest Potential solution? Potential solution?