Party systems: What difference does the number and kind of parties make?

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The Dept. of Political Science presents Change will come but will change last? The American Party System after Obama Dr. Mike Hannahan Director of the Civil Initiative Project and Member, Department of Political Science University of Massachusetts at Amherst Thursday, March 19, :30 -4:45pm SN points toward participation grade for attending

Stereotypes Multiparty systems are inherently unstable: The more parties you have the greater likelihood that either The more parties you have the greater likelihood that either Cabinets will be short-lived Cabinets will be short-livedOr Regimes themselves will be susceptible to collapse (regime instability) instability Regimes themselves will be susceptible to collapse (regime instability) instability

Problem: is this valid? Available evidence suggests that is not: The governments and regimes of most countries with multiparty systems are relatively stable The governments and regimes of most countries with multiparty systems are relatively stable But some countries have not But some countries have not Problem: what accounts for the difference? Problem: what accounts for the difference?

Polarized pluralism Moderate v. polarized pluralism (Sartori) Moderate v. polarized pluralism (Sartori) Historically, certain countries with a large number of parties have suffered from chronic cabinet and sometimes regime instability: Historically, certain countries with a large number of parties have suffered from chronic cabinet and sometimes regime instability: Weimar Germany ( ) Weimar Germany ( ) 3rd Republic France ( ) 3rd Republic France ( ) Spain, 2 nd Republic, Spain, 2 nd Republic, th Republic France ( ) 4th Republic France ( ) Italy, 1rst Republic ( ) Italy, 1rst Republic ( )

Explanations All had not only a large number of parties, but were sharply polarized as well All had not only a large number of parties, but were sharply polarized as well Three of these had rather fluid, poorly disciplined parties Three of these had rather fluid, poorly disciplined parties Spain, 2 nd Republic Spain, 2 nd Republic France, 3 rd and 4 th Republics France, 3 rd and 4 th Republics Only two, Weimar Germany and 2 nd Rep Spain suffered regime collapse Only two, Weimar Germany and 2 nd Rep Spain suffered regime collapse Many Italian specialists doubt that Italy, despite frequent cabinet changes, was unstable Many Italian specialists doubt that Italy, despite frequent cabinet changes, was unstable

Explaining stability Depends on more than number of parties Depends on more than number of parties Countries with multiparty systems find ways to cope: Countries with multiparty systems find ways to cope: Duty of heads of state (presidents or monarchs) to ensure that there is a government Duty of heads of state (presidents or monarchs) to ensure that there is a government Formal procedures Formal procedures ‘Facilitators’ involved? ‘Facilitators’ involved? Formateurs and informateurs in the Netherlands Formateurs and informateurs in the Netherlands

Forming governments Sweden and Scandinavia – role of parties themselves Sweden and Scandinavia – role of parties themselves Germany Germany Getting a government in the Netherlands Getting a government in the Netherlands Role of the monarch Role of the monarch Informateurs Informateurs Formateurs Formateurs Getting a government in Belgium… Getting a government in Belgium…

The Federal Republic of Germany : SPD FPD CDU/CSU SPD FPD CDU/CSU _______________________________ _______________________________ : : G SPD FDP CDU/CSU G SPD FDP CDU/CSU _______________________________ _______________________________1990-present PDS G SPD CDU/CSU FDP PDS G SPD CDU/CSU FDP (Left party) (Left party)__________________________________

Sweden pre-1990: Left SD Centre Liberal Conservative __________________________________ From the 1990s: Left SD Centre Lib Cons New Democ. ___________________________________

Netherlands: Pre-2000 SP GL PvdA D66 CDA VVD CU SGP __________________________________

Netherlands: from SP GL PvdA D66 CDA VVD LPF CU SGP __________________________________2009 PvdD SP GL PvdA D66 CU CDA VVD TON SGP PVV _______________________________________

Italy: DP PCI PR PSI PSDI PRI DC PLI Lega MSI _______________________________________________________________________ Predominant position of DC (Democrazia Cristiana) Predominant position of DC (Democrazia Cristiana) DC penchant for broad coalitions DC penchant for broad coalitions Exclusion of Communists Exclusion of Communists Willingness not only to colonize state apparatus to generate patronage Willingness not only to colonize state apparatus to generate patronage Willingness to share that patronage with coalition partners (e.g. PSI) Willingness to share that patronage with coalition partners (e.g. PSI) Shifting coalitions: Pentapartito in 1980s Shifting coalitions: Pentapartito in 1980s

Italy after 1993/4 Collapse of the pre-1993 party system Collapse of the pre-1993 party system Impact of Impact of tangentopoli tangentopoli End of Cold War End of Cold War Changes in electoral law Changes in electoral law New party system: two ‘poles’ or clusters competing with each other: New party system: two ‘poles’ or clusters competing with each other: Polo (Casa) del liberta Polo (Casa) del liberta Forza Italia (Berlusconi) Forza Italia (Berlusconi) Allianza Nationale (AN) – former neo-fascists Allianza Nationale (AN) – former neo-fascists Lega Norte Lega Norte Ulive (Olive) Ulive (Olive) DS Democratic Left = ex-Communists DS Democratic Left = ex-Communists Populare (left Christian Democrats Populare (left Christian Democrats Margerita… Margerita… Others (recently, up to 9) Others (recently, up to 9)

Post-1993 Party System DS+ 8 others FI AN Lega DS+ 8 others FI AN Lega______________________________________________________________ Ref. Ulive Liberta

Bottom lines: Multiparty competition is the norm in most European liberal democracies Multiparty competition is the norm in most European liberal democracies Two party competition relatively rare Two party competition relatively rare In many, party system change has increased the number of political parties winning seats in national parliaments In many, party system change has increased the number of political parties winning seats in national parliaments Few countries beset with problems of cabinet instability Few countries beset with problems of cabinet instability Why not? Why not? Most are enmeshed in networks of international organizations Most are enmeshed in networks of international organizations Parties in some countries operate in clusters Parties in some countries operate in clusters Few countries are as polarized as Weimar Germany, 2 nd Republic Spain or 3 rd or 4 th Republic France Few countries are as polarized as Weimar Germany, 2 nd Republic Spain or 3 rd or 4 th Republic France Greater problems today with reach of parties – their ability to attract support & ground themselves in society -- than with the number of parties? Greater problems today with reach of parties – their ability to attract support & ground themselves in society -- than with the number of parties?