Modelling Atmospheric CO2 Vertical Profiles TRANSCOM PARIS 2005 Christopher Pickett – Heaps  PhD Student (Univ. of Melbourne, AUS)  Supervisor:Dr. Peter.

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling Atmospheric CO2 Vertical Profiles TRANSCOM PARIS 2005 Christopher Pickett – Heaps  PhD Student (Univ. of Melbourne, AUS)  Supervisor:Dr. Peter Rayner  Currently studying at the LSCE

Thank You To…  Individuals Dr. Peter Rayner (Supervisor) Dr. Rachel Law (CSIRO) Dr. Philippe Ciais & others (LSCE)  Organisations CSIRO Atmospheric Research LSCE, CEA University of Melbourne

Aircraft Campaign/MissionAuthor(s) and/or Data ProvidersPeriod PROFILES Cape Grim Aerial Profile Archive GASLAB, CSIRO Orleans Aerial Profile ArchiveLSCE, CEA Present CMDL Aerial Profile ArchivesP. Tans, CMDL/NOAA CAR, FTL, HAA, HFM, LEF, PFA, RTA, SAN TROPOSPHERIC Bible (A, B, C)Machida et al.1998, 1999, 2000 JAL (Japan/Aus)Matsueda & Inoue PEM-WEST A dc8Newell et al PEM-WEST B dc8Hoell et al., PEM-TROPICS AHoell et al., PEM-TROPICS BRaper et al., TRACE AAndrae et al TRACE PJacob et al., CARIBICBrenninkmeijer et al., STRATOSPHERIC ASHOEJPL, NASA1994 POLARISJPL, NASA1997 SOLVEJPL, NASA2000 STRATJPL, NASA1996 DATA PROVIDERS!!!

Why model CO2 vertical profiles?  Inversion validation  Satellite Validation  Potential use of profile data in atmospheric inversions

Inversion Procedure…  Use of data from 77 obs. stations Not gap filled (from GLOBALVIEW)  Use of prior estimates

Inversion Procedure…  Monthly fluxes 1989 – 2002 (14 yrs)  High spatial resolution:136 regions –92 land regions 44 ocean regions  One yr of response f’ns from winds  15 ‘Sampled Inversions’ removing 20 stations from the network

Forward Model Procedure…  CSIRO CCAM model  Flux fields from each inversion inserted into the CCAM model Resolution200km by 18 lvls Time-step1hr Nudged by NCEP data(Inter-annual) Model operates within a Cubic-Conformal grid Advection scheme: NON LINEAR! –Semi-Lagranian horiz. advection with bi-cubic interpolation of fields –‘Non-negative constraint’ used for trace gas advection (Bermejo & Staniforth, 1992) and an ‘a posteriori conservation scheme’ is applied –Vertical advection uses a TDV scheme (Thuburn, 1993)

Forward model procedure…  Model sampled at appropriate point in time and space  Produces model data directly comparable to: Surface station monthly obs. data Vertical profile data

Model results at the surface (Examples)…

Model results at the surface (sampled inversions)…

Solutions to improve model fit…  Iteration procedure  Solve for flux estimate adjustments and adjust original CO2 flux estimates  Re-run forward model with adjusted flux field

Iteration results at the surface (examples)…

Solutions to improve model fit…  Sample inversion variability to characterise non-linearity

Profile fit examples (CGO)

Profile RMS Time Series (CGO) Mean RMS: 0.45ppm

Profile Bias (mean residual) Time Series (CGO)

What is causing errors in the model profiles?  Non-Linearity Issue  Profiles an instantaneous measurement Fluxes are monthly  High degree of ‘scatter’ in observed profile  Biomass burning events  Transport

Future plans…  Analyse sampled inversion flux estimates  Similar model comparison with LMDz  Use of profiles to estimate carbon flux  Proposed inter-comparison project Stay tuned!!!