Is Latin America democratic and does it matter? Maria Escobar-Lemmon Dept. of Political Science Texas A&M University

What do we mean by Democracy?

Freedom in the World Source: Free Partly Free Not Free

What is Democracy? A set of institutions that permits the entire adult population to act as citizens by choosing their leading decision makers in competitive, fair, and regularly scheduled elections which are held in the context of the rule of law, guarantees for political freedom and limited military prerogative.

Emphasizes process vs. outcomes Procedural/political concentrate on democratic resolution of conflicts and decision-making. Social emphasizes substantive outcomes of decisions (income distribution, economic and social welfare)

“Delegative” Democracy Problem: Latin America’s democracies seem to have institutions, but aren’t representative. Result: Emergence of “delegative” democracies – where elected presidents “govern as he or she sees fit”. Absence of other institutions to check presidential power. Removes incentives to keep campaign promises. Guillermo O’Donnell “Delegative Democracy” Journal of Democracy.

Weak Institutions Weak political institutions (and distrust of them) is an issue that confronts many countries and makes functioning of democracy difficult.

Trust in Institutions, 2000 “A lot” or “some” confidence “Little” or “No” confidence Church77%23% Armed Forces43%57% Television42%58% Judiciary34%66% President39%61% Police36%64% National Congress28%72% Political Parties20%80% Source: Lagos, Marta “Between Stability and Crisis in Latin America” Journal of Democracy 12(1):

The “left” and democracy

The left Emphasizes: social improvement vs. orthodox macroeconomic policy egalitarian distribution of wealth vs. free- market capitalism sovereignty vs. international cooperation

Source: Status of the “left” at the end of 2006 In 2007: Guatemala – Sept 9, headed to run-off Nov. 4 th Argentina – Oct 28

The New Latin American Left Uruguay: Tabaré Vázquez Chile: Michelle Bachelet Brazil: Luis Inácio Lula Argentina: Néstor Kirchner Venezuela: Hugo Chávez Bolivia: Evo Morales Ecuador: Rafael Correa Nicaragua: Daniel Ortega

The rise of the left Situation was ripe Favorable geopolitical conditions Economic situation Debt Failure of the “Washington Consensus” Consolidation of democracy Demand for clean and accountable government Source: Jorge Castaneda Utopia Unarmed: The Latin American Left After the Cold War

One Left or Two? “Reformed” communists and socialists Evolution similar to socialists in Western Europe Concerned with poverty/inequality Flexible on economic questions as they do not reject the market Source: “Latin America's Left Turn” Jorge G. Castaneda Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006

“Reformed” or “Reinvented” Left Emphasize social policy while sticking to mostly orthodox economic policy. Examples: Chile – Presidents Lagos and Bachelet Uruguay – President Vázquez Brazil – President da Silva (“Lula”) Pres. Michelle Bachelet Pres. Tabaré Vázquez Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

“Reformed” or “Reinvented” Left (cont.) This variant of the left one might argue is not bad for the US (or business) and is potentially good for democracy in the region.

One Left or Two? (cont.) “ Populist” Left Pro-poor, but not anti-business Strange bedfellows Nationalistic, verging on “anti-American” When all else fails spend money Source: “Latin America's Left Turn” Jorge G. Castaneda Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006

Populist Left Rhetoric and style matter. Maintaining popularity trumps social programs. Examples: Venezuela – President Chávez Argentina – President Kirchner ? Bolivia – President Morales? Pres. Néstor Kirchner Pres. Juan Evo Morales Pres. Hugo Chávez Frias

Populist Left This left is potentially scary both in economic terms and US-Latin America relations, but also for democracy.

Toward the Future Challenges and Hope for the Region

The bad news… Poverty and Inequality remain persistent problems

Richest 20% vs. Poorest 20%

The good news… Institutions appear to be working

Political Institutions do work Colombia Elections and democracy have survived in a context of violence 1991 Constitution was re-written in a process that got one guerilla group to demobilize and form a political party President Uribe’s recent moves raise questions Pres. Álvaro Uribe 38 th President of Colombia

Political Institutions do work Mexico 2000 PRI admitted losing an election and allowed PAN and Vicente Fox to take over the presidency President now has to bargain with legislature Exceeding close election between Felipe Calderón (P.A.N.) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (P.R.D.) Federal Electoral Tribunal decision Protests, but limited violence López Obrador Pres. Calderón

The good news… (cont.) In a traditionally “machista” region, women have made impressive gains in achieving representation

Source: Escobar-Lemmon and Taylor-Robinson, unpublished manuscript.

Number of women in presidential cabinets Source: Escobar-Lemmon and Taylor-Robinson

Percentage of the Supreme Court that is Female, South America Source: Avellaneda, Cardona, Escobar-Lemmon, unpublished manuscript

Percentage of the Supreme Court that is Female, Central America Source: Avellaneda, Cardona, Escobar-Lemmon, unpublished manuscript