The WP 4.2 one year after… N. Degallier, IRD; C. Favier, CNRS; W.M. Ramalho, SVS; E. Neves, UnB; C. Menkes, IRD J.-P. Boulanger, CNRS Some dates: July 2004: start up of the project September 2004: kick off meeting April 2005: money available! Today: are the deliverables… deliverable?
Objectives of the WP 4.2 The WP 4.2 one year after… Create an epidemiological database with data on Yellow fever and Dengue in South America, to be acessed by CLARIS partners for uploading and downloading data on cases and vectors of these diseases in their country. Determine which climate parameters are key ones in explaining the spatial and temporal distribution of cases Validate the model with observed data and propose a risk index of dengue and YF transmission for decision-making Construct a model integrating these key parameters, for simulating epidemics, according to various climatic scenarios
The CLARIS epidemiological database Epidemiological data Entomological data Dates: beginning and end of surveyDates: beginning and end of survey Number of premises surveyedNumber of premises surveyed Address (locality, municipality, state, country)Address (locality, municipality, state, country) Number of potential containers of each typeNumber of potential containers of each type Number of positive containers of each typeNumber of positive containers of each type Premise indexPremise index Container indexContainer index Breteau indexBreteau index Number of pupae (when available)Number of pupae (when available) Eggtraps (positive/total sampled)Eggtraps (positive/total sampled) SexoSexo Date of beginning of symptoms (fever)Date of beginning of symptoms (fever) Previous history of Dengue disease Address, Locality, municipality, state, country (geographic coordinates, when available)Address, Locality, municipality, state, country (geographic coordinates, when available) Diagnostic (isolation, serology, clinic, epidemiologic) Recent history of travel (last 15 days) For YF : host (monkey, human) If monkey: species
The model of Dengue transmission and risk evaluation Mosquito: development survival gonotrophic cycle Virus: extrinsic cycle Infection rate Vectorial capacity Basic reproduction number (R 0 ) Other factors: trophic preferences human behavior interrupted feeding virus genetics mosquito genetics vertical transmission Mosquito adult stage Mosquito immatur e stages Climate Man-made environment Vectorial capacity Human dengue status R 0 Epidemic curves Reproduction Emergence Virus transmission
The Dengue transmission model Preliminary results R 0 estimation from epidemic curves Survival of the vector
The spatio-temporal analysis of Dengue and Yellow fever DENGUE Many cases Seasonality Urban YELLOW FEVER Few cases Seasonality Rural transmission Endemic Epizootic Epidemic risk
INDICE DE BRETEAUTAXA DE INCIDÊNCIA DE DENGUE COMPORTAMENTO DO AEDES E DA DENGUE NO BRASIL NO ANO DE 2004.