ODRA RIVER case study Andrzej Dunajski, Karolina Królikowska, Maciej Sieczka CAVES

Evidence collected so far Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office Spatial information from maps Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts including: -policy relevant issues -main tendencies in land use change - main relationships among key stakeholders -first decision rules

Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office Thematic scope demography labor issues administration land use issues (forestry and agriculture)

Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office Data sources -yearly collected data from local administration -data from National Population and Housing Census -data from National Agricultural Census

Quantitative data from Central Statistical Office Data format -time series in Excell spreadsheets -data integrated with vector maps of communes in the GIS database for spatial analysis and visualization -35 thematic maps of analyzed phenomena were created, for example:

Unemployment spatial pattern

Spatial information from maps LULC maps from the Corine Land Cover 2000 (CLC 2000) provided by the European Space Agency were integrated into GIS. Current LULC was analyzed based on CLC 2000 as an addition to Central Statistical Office’s LULC Data.

Spatial information from maps 1:25000 topo maps are being digitized in the area of Prochowice commune for initial LULC analysis within the period from 1930's till early 1990's in this area.

Spatial information from maps Land ownership along Kwiatkowicki and Rogowski Channels based on the land evidence maps were received From local administration.

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts Workshops results – policy relevant issues PROBLEM I Risk of floods PROBLEM II Maintenance of land reclamation system PROBLEM III Socio-economic issues PROBLEM IV Environmental issues

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts Main tendencies in land use change according to interviews with experts transformation of pastures and meadows into arable land land abandonment integration of land reforestation urbanization

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts STAKEHOLDERS people:  Farmers  Other land owners  State farms ex-workers institutions:  state land owners  local government  institutions connected with water management  institutions connected with nature conservation  NGO’s

Qualitative information from stakeholders and experts Decision rules 1.Rational choice based on the knowledge of purchase/sale prices 2.Imitate a successful neighbour 3.Passive waiting – THEY (local administration, state government) should do it. 4.Follow the leader (eg. Dziewin)

Question for modeling teams What kind of more detailed evidence is necessary for the modeling teams and what kind of knowledge representation and data format is expected from us?