A few tips on writing a good forecast discussion: Monday, January 24 NWS Discussion as an example Atmo 456 Conlee/Seroka

1.Past and Current Weather Explain recent past weather and current weather through: Observations Satellite imagery Radar imagery Synoptic set up

1. Past and Current Weather What NWS had: Surface high over S. Texas early morning  dry cool conditions

1. Past and Current Weather What NWS had: Surface high over S. Texas early morning  dry cool conditions Water vapor imagery shows upper level trough axis east of area

1. Past and Current Weather What NWS had: Surface high over S. Texas early morning  dry cool conditions Water vapor imagery shows upper level trough axis east of area No shortwaves as in Sunday with “surprise convection”

Sunday

Monday

2.Future Weather Provide details of day-by-day forecast-- not just weather but weather systems e.g. NWS had: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday Min temps close to normal, max temps slightly above normal Few high clouds over area tonight **Upper low to reach northern Baja early Wednesday, then trek east reaching West Texas Thursday

2.Future Weather Connect weather to weather systems i.e. provide cause and effect e.g. NWS had: Onshore surface winds return Tuesday afternoon as high moves east Low level jet reestablished Tuesday night, strengthen to 50 kts Thursday Stratus fill in Tuesday night Min temps in evening before clouds move in PWAT values to an inch Wednesday

2.Future Weather Connect weather to weather systems i.e. provide cause and effect e.g. NWS had: Onshore surface winds return Tuesday afternoon as high moves east Low level jet reestablished Tuesday night, strengthen to 50 kts Thursday Stratus fill in Tuesday night Min temps in evening before clouds move in PWAT values to an inch Wednesday Warm advection  mostly cloudy, few light showers Wednesday Upper flow diffluent Thursday as trough and associated 120 kt jet max at 300 mb approach from west

2.Future Weather Provide model trends and comparisons GFS vs. NAM/WRF vs. ECMWF 12Z run vs. 06Z run E.g. NWS had: “have followed 06Z GFS for timing of front which is a few hours slower than the 00Z run” Models trending colder in wake of front as huge chunk of cold air pulled into system 850 mb temps to -6C midday Friday

Some common errors lower temperatures (not colder temperatures) low pressure, high pressure (not low-pressure, high- pressure) winds from the northwest (not Northwest)