Cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean: the MEDEX project A. Jansa Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain

Heavy rain, strong wind,... and other high impact weather events in the Mediterranean are frequently associated to cyclones To improve the knowledge and the forecasting of the Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean is the objective of MEDEX As far a relationship between cyclones and high impact weather does exist, the MEDEX objective is also to improve the forecasting of H.I.W., e. g., of heavy rain and flooding, the most important H.I.W. in the Mediterranean,,

In this presentation: A few examples of cyclone-high impact weather interaction will be shown Also some results from a climatological/systematic study of this interaction Finally, the main keys of the project MEDEX will be anounced

Example (A): Montserrat flood: 200 mm in 3 hrs 5 people died 500 people displaced Historical and material damage Type (A): the cyclone organises the inflow of wet and warm Mediterranean air loop

Example (B): Sardinian cyclone: >100 mm in 3 hrs 118 km/h wind gust 9 m highest waves Type (B): deep cyclone and hazardous weather are two aspects of the same evolution loop

Another Case © ESA, 1997 Example (C): Quasi-tropical cyclone: 115 km/h wind gust 27 mm/ 1 h Type (C): cyclone driven by latent heat release (as a result of previous heavy rain)

a cyclone within 600 km in >90% of cases of heavy rain in most of the cases the cyclone well located to organise the wet inflow Climatological/systematic study : over 700 cases of heavy rain, e.g., 60 mm/24 h; looking for a close simultaneous cyclone:

MEDEX: General objective: Going to better understanding and improved forecast of Mediterranean severe storms, through better understanding and improved forecast of cyclones that produce severe storms (high impact weather) As a summary: A development path >>>>>>>>>

1.Types of situation 2. Systematic study 3.Numerical experiments concerning factors 4. Determination of sensitive areas 5. Targeted observations Reanalysis 6. Observing Systems Simulations Experiments 7. Recommendations about O.S. and modelling 8. Conceptual models for forecasters 9. Improved forecasts and social benefit

In general, for any kind of situation, the EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were are the most sensitive areas for Southern Europe:

We need to know sensitive areas for specific cases: An hypothesis about sensitive areas and targeted observations for heavy rain in Valencia: Heavy rain site Sensitive area H+12/H+24 low level Sensitive area H+36/H+72 high level

More information in: MEDEX is an official project of WMO... (Resolution of 12 Oct. 2000)... and has the support of more than 20 institutions, most of them in the Mediterranean countries. But it is not a financed project.