Foreign and Security Policy East and Central Europe in Transition
Personnel and spelling Brezhnev Chernenko Andropov Gorbachov Yeltsin Putin
Warsaw Pact Response to NATO Goals primarily Moscow’s Keep Germany divided Push back starting point of land invasion Expand Communism [Stalin, but not necessarily Khrushchev] Brezhnev Doctrine
Comecon/CMEA Economic interdependence counter to Common Market planning specialisation
After “Independence” Let’s all join NATO Let’s all join European Union Who’s really European? Yanks go home? Prevent revival of Communism and/or Moscow dominance Any old scores need settling?
Conflicts Polish posession of Silesia and half East Prussia Prussia: Konigsberg/Kaliningrad Transylvania Ruthenia
Diasporas Bulgarian Turks Dispossessed Germans from Russians in Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia Crimean Tartars Dispossessed and Murdered East European Jewish families from fascist period Emigrants to U.S., exiled dissidents and defectors
Moscow’s nearby concerns Far East: Kuriles and Amur/Ussuri river frontiers Central Asia: Islamic fundamentalism and Tajikistan Caucasus:Chechnya,Abkhazia,Nagorno- Karabakh, South Ossetia Europe: CIS or “near abroad”; Baltic States; former Communist states; Western Europe
Moscow’s global concerns UN role: wants to be taken seriously Relations with US: partnership turning to rivalry: Serbia, Iraq, other conflicts of interest? Needs to sell something on world market. What is its economic role to be? What relations are possible with Japan, Germany, France and China?
Document approved Putin June 28th International relations have been transformed Cold war over, Russia reformed Opportunities for cooperation broadened Threat of global nuclear conflict reduced to minimum Military power of importance, but econ., political, sci and tech, ecological and info factors increasing in importance
New challenges and threats to Russian national interest Unipolar world: US dominates both economically and politically Role of UN Security Council being weakened Questions of international security being decided by primarily western institutions and “forums of limited composition” Strategy of unilateral actions is destabilising Bypassing legal mechanisms will not remove underlying causes of conflict but can undermine foundations of law and order
Russia’s first aim “ to achieve a multi-polar system of international relations that really reflects the diversity of the modern world with its great variety of interests
Russia’s concerns Rivalry among regional powers Growth of separatism, ethnic-national and religious extremism Integration in the Euro-Atlantic region being pursued selectively Belittling role of sovereign state is used to legitimise arbitrary interference in internal affairs
More concerens Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery Growth of international terrorism Trafficking in drugs and weapons Regional and local armed conflicts [Chechnya, Abkhazia, Kosovo Nagorno- karabakh etc.]
Russia’s resources are limited So it finds it difficult to uphold its economic interests But the potential for “ensuring itself a worthy place in the world” remains if: Statehood can be strengthened Civil society consolidates Stable economic growth can be achieved
Priorities Decrease in the role of the power factor Enhancement of strategic and regional stability
Means Comply with arms reduction treaties and negotiate new ones Further bilateral reduction of nuclear potential with US Control of missile technologies and proliferation Strategic stability of information security Reduction and limitation of conventional forces Strengthening of legal foundation of international peacekeeping in accordance with UN Charter