Mitigating global warming Chautauqua UWA-6, Dr. E.J. Zita 9-11 July 2007 Fire, Air, and Water: Effects of the Sun, Atmosphere, and Oceans in Climate Change and Global Warming

Title

Solving the Climate and Energy Problem Stephen W. Pacala Petrie Chair in Ecology Director, Princeton Environmental Institute April 2006

Surface Air Warming (°F) 2xCO 2 Climate 4xCO 2 Climate GFDL Model

Monsters Behind the Door Ocean Circulation Hurricanes Sahel Drought Ice Sheets

Instability of Ocean Circulation Manabe and Stouffer

Increasing Hurricane Intensity Source: Knutson and Tuleya 2004, Journal of Climate 17,

Drought in the Sahel (Held et al. 2006)

Ice Sheet Instability (Oppenheimer et al. 2004)

$100/tC Form of EnergyEquivalent to $100/tC Natural gas$1.50/1000 scf Crude oil$12/barrel Coal$65/U.S. ton Gasoline25¢/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 50¢/gallon) Electricity from coal2.2¢/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 ¢/kWh) Electricity from natural gas1.0¢/kWh Today’s US energy system~ $150 billion/year (~1% of GDP) Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable most available alternatives. (PV is an exception.) $100/tC is approximately the October 2005 EU trading price. Source: Robert Socolow

Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system…  The Oil Problem (OP)  The Air Pollution Problem (APP)  The Climate Problem (CP)

Postwar dislocations Iranian nationalization, strikes Suez Crisis 1969strikes OAPEC embargo Iranian revolution Iran-Iraq War 1990Persian Gulf War 2000East Asian Economic Growth Source: James D. Hamilton

Costs of Iraq, Afghanistan and Enhanced Security in Billions of US Dollars (4 Years) Iraq 309 Afganistan 99 Enhanced Security 24 Other 45 Total 477 Time Frame FY Source Congressional Research Service Report Steve Kosiak

Incremental Costs Since 9/11 Grand Total, Iraq DoD costs: $585 billion Non-DoD assistance: $24 billion VA costs: $ billion Brain injuries: $14-35 billion Interest: $ billion Total: $798-1,209 billion Stiglitz –Direct costs: $839-1,189 billion –Macroeconomic: $187-1,050 billion –Total: $1,026-2,239 billion Source: Steve Kosiak Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis

E stimated D eaths P er Y ear from A ir P ollution US – 130,000 W orld – >3,000,000 Source: The Skeptical Environmentalist pp. 168, $2.5 million per life, US cost is $ 330 billion/y

Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system… Do we have the technological know-how to construct an energy system that would solve all three problems?  The Oil Problem (OP)  The Air Pollution Problem (APP)  The Climate Problem (CP)

Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton, Carbon Capture Carbon Science Carbon Storage Carbon Policy $21,150,000 funding from BP and Ford.

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow Science Vol August 13, 2004

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions 1.9  2106 Past Emissions

 2106 The Stabilization Triangle O Interim Goal Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Currently projected path = “ramp” Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle

(380) (850) The Stabilization Triangle: Beat doubling or accept tripling (details) Values in parentheses are ppm. Note the identity (a fact about the size of the Earth’s atmosphere): 1 ppm = 2.1 GtC  850 ppm  500 ppm Ramp = Delay Flat = Act Now 1.9 (320) (470) (530) (750) (500) (850) Business As Usual GtC/yr Historical emissions Stabilization triangle

The Demography of Capital Policy priority: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock: not only new power plants, but also new buildings power-plant lifetime CO 2 commitments WEO-2004 Reference Scenario. Lifetime in years: coal 60, gas 40, oil 20. Historic emissions, all uses Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9  GtC/y 7 GtC/y Seven “wedges” Wedges O

What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

Filling the Triangle With Technologies Already in the Marketplace at Industrial Scale

Revolutionary Technology: Fusion

Revolutionary Technology: Artificial Photosynthesis

Wedges EFFICIENCY Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY Natural gas for coal Power from coal or gas with CCS Nuclear power Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal. DECARBONIZED FUELS Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage Biofuels Hydrogen –from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage –from nuclear energy –from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY Grid-charged batteries for transport Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers NATURAL SINKS Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations) Agricultural soils OP,APP,CP CP

Efficiency and Conservation transportbuildings industry power lifestyle Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.

Photos courtesy of Ford, WMATA, Washington State Ridesharing Organization Efficiency in transport Effort needed for 1 wedge: 2 billion gasoline and diesel cars (10,000 miles/car-yr) at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg 500 million cars now. Cost = negative to $ $3000 per car (hybrid Prius). Fuel savings ~150 gallons per year = emissions savings of ~0.5 tC/yr =carbon cost > $2/gal !

Electricity Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power. Nuclear Graphic courtesy of NRC Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.

Power with Carbon Capture and Storage Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Carbon capture and storage at 800 GW coal power plants.

Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 3500 In Salahs or MtCO 2 /yr 100 x U.S. CO 2 injection rate for EOR A flow of CO 2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Sleipner project, offshore Norway

King Coal Liquid Fuels Hydrogen Cars Geologic Storage Hydrogen Electricity IGCC C CO + H 2 O Partial Combustion CO, H 2, CO 2 H 2 O, Shift Reaction Best CO/H Ratio For Liquid Fuels Complete the Shift Reaction H2H2, CO 2 Turbine Syngas Reactor Turbine APP OP OP,APP OP,APP CP

New Builds by BP DF-2 announced February Coke to hydrogen to >500 Megawatts electricity. ~ One million tons per year of CO 2 to spent Californian oil reservoirs. DF-1 announced June Natural gas to hydrogen to 350 Megawatts of electricity. ~One million tons per year of CO 2 to a spent oil reservoir in the North Sea. En Salah. One million tons per year CO 2 sequestration project.

The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm 3 ) of CO 2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km 2 in each of two formations. Assumptions: 10% porosity 1/3 of pore space accessed 60 m total vertical height for the two formations. Note: Plant is still young.

CO 2 Injection and Leakage Pathways Flow Dynamics Well-leakage dynamics Numerical Simulations Analytical Solutions Spatial Locations Well Properties Cement Degradation Shallow-zone Effects Unsaturated Soils Groundwater Resources Carbon Storage

Wind Electricity Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today: 40,000 MW (2%) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

Wind Hydrogen Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association) Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: H 2 instead of gasoline or diesel in 2 billion 60 mpg vehicles Two million 2 MW windmills Twice as many windmills as for a wedge of wind electricity Today: 40,000 MW (1%) Assumes the H 2 fuels 100-mpg cars

Solar Electricity Effort needed for 1 wedge: Install 40 GW peak each year 2 GW peak in place today, rate of production growing at 20%/yr (slice requires 50 years at 15%). 2 million hectares dedicated use by 2054 = 2 m 2 per person. Graphics courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program Cost = expensive (2x – 40x other electricity but declining at 10% per year).

BiofuelsBiofuels Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland) Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Elimination of tropical deforestation and Rehabilitation of 400 million hectares (Mha) temperate or 300 Mha tropical forest Natural Stocks Photo: SUNY Stonybrook Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Conservation tillage on all cropland Forests Soils Photo: Brazil: Planting with a jab planter. FAO

Wedges EFFICIENCY Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY Natural gas for coal Power from coal or gas with carbon capture and storage Nuclear power Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal. DECARBONIZED FUELS Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage Biofuels Hydrogen –from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage –from nuclear energy –from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY Grid-charged batteries for transport Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers NATURAL SINKS Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations) Agricultural soils OP,APP,CP CP

Three Interdependent Problems  The Oil Problem (OP) ~ $600 billion /yr for Iraq, >$100 billion /yr for oil price shocks (how much for vet care?)  The Air Pollution Problem (APP) >$100 billion /yr for air pollution  The Climate Problem (CP) ~ $100 billion/yr to solve the problem

Conclusions What is needed is a national policy designed to solve the oil problem, the air pollution problem, and the climate problem. We already possess cost-effective technologies for the next fifty years, if costs are seen in the context of what we are already paying. The solution will only get cheaper, as investment elicits industrial R&D and new innovation.

Workshop on Energy Costs

GW mitigation options

Wind power – available soon enough? Current windpower capacity ~ 40 GW peak If we need 2000 GW peak for one wedge, then the scale-up factor is 50 = W(t)/W 0 Growth in windpower k = 30% per year - is this fast enough?

Wind power – available soon enough? Current windpower capacity ~ 40 GW peak If we need 2000 GW peak for one wedge, then the scale-up factor is 50. Growth in windpower k = 30% per year - is this fast enough?

Nuclear energy FISSIONFUSION Splits heavy atomsCombines light atoms Produces electricityExperimental; works in Sun Radioactive wasteHarmless helium waste Atom bombH-bomb Millions of times more energy than combustion More energy than fission Fault → can meltdownFault → fusion stops

Nuclear energy

E=mc 2

Good Nukes – Bad Nukes? Nuclear waste vitrification (fission)

What about FUSION? Hydrogen Isotopes of Hydrogen

Deuterium fusion: E=mc 2 Fusion: D + D → T + H Mass balance: 2* u → u u  m = ________________ u = atomic mass units  m = __________ u * 1.66 x kg/u = ___________ kg E =  m c 2 where c=3 x 10 8 m/s E = _________________ J How much D fusion energy is possible from 1 kg of water? Giancoli Ex.43-7 p.1097

Deuterium fusion: E=mc 2 Fusion: D + D → T + H Mass balance: 2* u → u u  m = u u = u  m = u * 1.66 x kg/u = 7.18 x kg E =  m c 2 where c=3 x 10 8 m/s E = 6.46 x J How much D fusion energy is possible from 1 kg of water? Giancoli Ex.43-7 p.1097

Fusion vs. combustion How much D fusion energy is possible from 1 kg of water? 0.015% of the H in water is D. The number of D nuclei in 1 kg water is We found that 2D release 6.45 x J of energy, so N release Compare this to the energy from burning 1 kg of gasoline: E gas ~ 5 x 10 7 J. A hundred times more energy from water. Giancoli Prob p.1112

IPCC III

Compare populations and resources

2030 Emission reduction potential depends on price of CO2

CO2 emission reduction potential (2030)

Costs of CO2 emission reductions

CO2 stabilization scenarios

Stabilized CO2 and T levels

Emissions reductions for specific measures

Challenge: to construct solution packages with available technology.

Research project guidelines Cover sheet: title, teammates, class, date, and (one line each) each solution option in your package, including how much CO 2 it will “remove.” Contents: Your team’s motivation and how you chose your solution package, why you chose not to include other options. For each solution option, key strengths and weaknesses, realistic evaluation of its near-term availability, costs and consequences, and a quantitative analysis of how much CO2 it will “remove.” Approximately 10 pages plus AnnotatedBibliography. Shorter is fine: make every word count, and say everything you need to say - clearly and concisely. AnnotatedBibliography Cite all sources for all information right where you mention the information. Include a list of all references at the end. Credit all sources, including classmates, librarians, and other people who may have helped you.

research projects … Goals for your doing research projects include: Become local experts on methods to reduce CO 2 using current technology Quantitatively estimate the potential contribution of these methods to stabilize CO 2 levels Understanding how the methods you investigate satisfy Pacala and Socolow’s stabilization criteria. Add additional wedges if necessary. Discuss your criteria (values) for selecting from the various options. Suggested format (with suggested page lengths for each section): Abstract-Summary of conclusions (0.25 page) Brief Introduction, with overview of the problem and choice of methods investigated (.75 page) Technical Summary of each method (2-4 pages) Quantitative estimates of contributions of each method to C reduction Assumptions, computations, critique (2-4 pages) Discussion of how your solution package meets Pacala and Socolow’s stabilization criteria (1-2 pages).

Design your own global warming solution package:

Revised game approaches suggested by Chautauqua participants Discuss and consider revising rules before play Permit partial wedges? Half a solar wedge? Require addition of a minimum amount of new power? Require inclusion of all four colors of solutions? Other options?